Only the Milwaukee Brewers know just how deep they jumped into the Yu Darvish pool but it was surprising nevertheless Sunday when reports surfaced that they had made an offer to one of the top pitchers on the free-agent market.
With the free-agent market frozen in an unprecedented ice age of inactivity by major-league clubs, perhaps the Brewers merely decided carpe diem was the proper course at this juncture. After all, Darvish is going to play somewhere in 2018 – and beyond – and if the price is right, why not Milwaukee?
Not knowing what other offers the 31-year-old Darvish has in hand – he does tweet about rumors and reports on occasion – there’s no way to know where the Brewers might stand in terms of acquiring his services. Figuring his price might be coming down as spring training nears, owner Mark Attanasio and general manager David Stearns might have put together what would have been considered a low-ball offer otherwise.
It is Stearns’ policy not to comment publicly on reports/rumors of possible free-agent signings or trades until they are official, and he reiterated Monday morning that hasn’t changed. So, any reports of progress or lack thereof in the Brewers’ pursuit of Darvish will have to come from outside the organization.
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At the outset of the offseason, former Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta and Darvish, who split the 2017 season between Texas and the Los Angeles Dodgers, were the acknowledged alpha dogs among free-agent starting pitchers. Despite being in their early 30s, both were assumed to be seeking deals in the five- or six-year range with annual salaries of $25 million or more.
Given the fiscal restraints of the smallest media market in the majors, it is highly unlikely the Brewers made an offer of that magnitude. But, seeing an opportunity they couldn’t have forecast three months ago, is it unreasonable to think they floated a four-year deal at $20 million or so per year? That would still be a significant investment but the Brewers do have some financial flexibility after gutting their payroll in 2015-’16 while embarking on a large-scale rebuilding plan.
The Brewers have only one significant contract remaining on their books. As part of a five-year, $105 million contract extension that began in 2016, leftfielder Ryan Braun has three seasons left and about $57 million yet to be paid. But some of that money is being deferred, including $4 million of his $19 million salary this year.
The next highest-paid player on the payroll is newly signed starting pitcher Jhoulys Chacin, who will make $8 million in 2018 as part of a two-year, $15.5 million deal. At present, the Brewers have 13 players signed for the upcoming season at about $55 million.
The Brewers played last season with an actual player payroll of less than $60 million, the lowest of the 30 clubs. If they make no further additions of note before opening day, they will operate in that same neighborhood in 2018.
With baseball revenues at an all-time high and fan support in Milwaukee strong, the Brewers certainly can afford to spend more on talent. In the past, when his team was positioned to win, Attanasio has shown a willingness to go higher than $100 million – but not far above that level.
With that backdrop, it is still reasonable to ask how wise it is to make a substantial offer to a pitcher who has reached age 30. Mention the names Jeff Suppan and Matt Garza to Brewers fans and it only takes a second or two for them to cringe. Suppan suffered slippage halfway through his four-year, $42 million deal and Garza never got any traction with his four-year, $50 million contract, and Darvish’s annual take will be at twice those levels.
Darvish also comes with a medical red flag. He missed all of 2015 and half of 2016 while recovering from Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery, and hasn’t been the consistently dominating pitcher he was beforehand.
Darvish did make the AL all-star team for the fourth time with Texas last season and was good enough for the already-potent Dodgers to trade for him for the playoff push. He was dreadful in two starts against Houston in the World Series, including an early Game 7 flameout, but a report surfaced afterward that he was tipping his pitches, a fixable flaw.
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At the start of their rebuilding process, there was no reason to expect the Brewers to be shopping in the Darvish aisle this winter. It was expected to take time to return to a competitive mode but after several astute moves by Stearns and under the leadership of manager Craig Counsell, the Brewers surprised the baseball world by winning 86 games in 2017, a jump of 13 victories from the previous season.
That impressive showing still left the Brewers one win shy of the playoffs, and perhaps Attanasio and Stearns rued not making a midseason move for a starting pitcher such as Jose Quintana or Sonny Gray, who boosted the Cubs and Yankees, respectively. Perhaps they see this as their chance to reel in an established starter to keep the rebuilding process moving forward.
With Jimmy Nelson’s ETA for the 2018 season unknown while recovering from shoulder surgery, the Brewers certainly could use a high-end boost to the rotation. And, if they structure a deal to Darvish – or any other quality starter – in a way they can make it work financially going forward, it could pay big dividends on the field.
Stearns has remained disciplined in his methodical approach to rebuilding the Brewers but also is one to explore every possible opportunity to improve his club. It only cost money to sign Darvish – no draft pick compensation is involved – so there would be no casualties among top prospects in the Brewers' now highly regarded farm system.
So, we shall see what comes of all of this. Darvish has a home in Dallas and is thought to want to remain in Texas, if the Rangers make an offer he considers acceptable. The Brewers might have merely been testing the free-agent waters to see if they could stay afloat in this unusually quiet winter.
Stearns and Co. already have shown a willingness and proclivity to think out of the box. We received further proof of that with the reports of their offer to Darvish.