SportsPulse: NFL insiders Lindsay Jones and Lorenzo Reyes discuss the matchups that will determine if the Jaguars or Patriots will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. USA TODAY Sports
Breaking down the key players, matchups and other notes heading into the AFC and NFC Championship Games:
Who’s hot
Stefon Diggs. After securing a place in NFL postseason history with his 61-yard walk-off touchdown last week, the Vikings receiver heads to The Linc looking for an encore. Of course, Diggs would exchange repeating the drama if it still meant that Minnesota captured the W that would allow it to become the first team to host a Super Bowl in its home stadium. Diggs’ big moment on a play called “Buffalo Right, 7 Heaven,” was neat in another sense: He was the 20th receiver drafted in 2015, a fifth-round pick taken 146th overall from Maryland, long after the six first-round receivers went off the board. And none have had a bigger impact play.
Pressure’s on
Blake Bortles. As the Twitter account, @BlakeBortlesFacts, reminds us with its sharp sarcasm, the Jaguars’ much-maligned quarterback is “undefeated” in 94 countries. He’s also winless in Foxborough, Mass., home to Patriots Nation. If Jacksonville has a chance to pull off the epic upset of Belichick & Co., they won’t necessarily need Bortles to out-gun TB12. They will need an A-game from the big-play defense, some running punch from Leonard Fournette and…maybe the game of his life from Bortles. At the very least, Bortles must avoid mistakes, mindful that the Jags are 6-0 this season when they don’t commit an offensive turnover. For all of the negativity routinely directed at Bortles, the fourth-year pro has been impressive in the red zone (20 TDs, 0 INTs, 105.6 passer rating) to frequently cash in on the NFL-high 37 turnovers provided by the Sacksonville crew. Now let’s see if that all travels to The Razor.
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Marquee subplot
For all of the measures that Tom Brady has taken to maintain his sharp performance at 40 – body coach Alex Guerrero’s emphasis on pliability, strict diet, rest – it was a freak accident in Wednesday’s practice that threw a wrench into preparations for a seventh consecutive AFC title game. Reportedly, Brady – who practiced Friday after missing Thursday’s session -- received stitches for a gash caused when the thumb on his throwing hand bent backward after it collided with a teammate’s helmet. Guess this proves that TB12 is no Cyborg. He’s human. Or maybe it was the football gods trying to even up the matchup with Blake Bortles on the other side. In any event, it’s intriguing enough. Will Brady’s passes have the typical velocity and pinpoint accuracy? With premier strip-sacker Yannick Ngakoue blowing around the corner, will a weakened hand make Brady susceptible to fumbling? Surely, a deflated football would be easier to grip, but as Brady can attest, that’s against NFL rules.
Key matchup
Everson Griffin vs. Halapoulivaati Vaitai. The Eagles’ bid for a Super Bowl could very well hinge on whether the substitute left tackle can keep the most ferocious rusher on Minnesota’s formidable D-line off Nick Foles’ back. Vaitai has been adequate since filling in for Pro Bowl lineman Jason Peters, who suffered a torn ACL in Week 7. But there’s a glaring drop-off. According to Pro Football Focus, Vaitai has allowed 9 of the Eagles’ 36 sacks during the regular season. Griffin, though bothered during the second half of the season by a plantar fasciitis injury, is the guy who posted a career-high 13 sacks during the regular season. During the divisional win against New Orleans, he contributed a strip-sack and a deflected pass that was intercepted by Anthony Barr. He can cause many issues for Foles, who struggles more than most when under pressure. That’s why it’s critical for Vaitai to have a championship performance.
X-Factor
Who’s on Gronk? There’s a good chance that star agitator Jalen Ramsey will draw the assignment of covering Rob Gronkowski – if not exclusively, then extensively – to put the Jaguars’ best cover man on the Patriots’ most lethal weapon. Ramsey and A.J. Bouye routinely snuff out threats on the outside as they formulate the NFL’s best cornerback tandem, but New England’s passing game distinctively operates from the inside-out, with Gronkowski working the seams, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan aligning in the slots and often running crosses, and running backs James White and Dion Lewis routinely circling out of the backfield. Putting Ramsey inside on Gronk could present a classic matchup. Sure, Gronkowski is 6-6, 265, but Ramsey has decent size; he’s a thick 6-1, 208. And maybe no DB is as adept at getting under an opponent’s skin (see A.J. Green and Steve Smith), which might incite Gronkowski – whose cheap shot on Buffalo’s Tre’Davious White was one of the lowest moments of the NFL season. During the AFC title game two years ago, the Broncos put all-pro corner Aqib Talib on Gronk. The results were, well, mixed. Denver won the trip to the Super Bowl, but Gronkowski caught 8 passes for 144 yards and a TD. Maybe it’s not so much stopping Gronk, but containing him enough for a chance to win.
Rookie watch
Corey Clement. The undrafted rookie provided a surprising twist during the divisional playoff win against Atlanta, with 5 catches for 31 yards. And suddenly, the Eagles have another dimension for third-down packages as Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount are hardly known for their receiving skills. The same could be said of Clement, who caught just 29 passes in four years at Wisconsin and had only 10 receptions during the regular season – including a sweet, 9-yard TD grab off a fade to the corner against Washington in Week 7. Surely, there’s a need. With Darren Sproles’ season wiped out in September by a torn ACL, the Eagles didn’t have a running back with at least 15 catches for the first time since 1956.
Did you notice?
Since obtained from Buffalo in a midseason trade, burly Jaguars nose tackle Marcell Dareus has started just three games (including the playoff opener) and collected 26 tackles (including the playoffs). But that hardly accounts for his impact, as Dareus has actually logged more snaps in each of the past seven games than the starter he rotates with, Abry Jones. Then there’s the dramatic improvement of the Jaguars’ run defense – reflective of the dirty work Dareus and Jones supply while clearing paths linebackers to clean up with the tackles. When Dareus came aboard, the Jags ranked 32nd for run defense and allowed 5.2 yards per carry. During the final nine regular season games with Dareus in the mix, Jacksonville allowed just 3.7 yards per rush and finished the season ranked 21st for rushing yards allowed.
Stat’s the fact
No team converted more fourth downs during the regular than the Eagles, who made good on 17 of their 26 tries (65.4%). This not only reflects play-calling coach Doug Pederson’s aggressive nature; it also flows with an analytics trend that illustrates advantages of going for it. Strikingly, three of the top five teams in the league for fourth-down conversion rate – the Eagles, Jaguars and Patriots – are playing on Championship weekend. The Jaguars have converted at the highest rate (80%) in the NFL, including the postseason. Their 2-for-2 playoff clip includes the 1-yard TD run by Leonard Fournette on fourth-and-goal last weekend at Pittsburgh.
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