Candidates typically don’t change tactics when they’re working well.
So when Republican state House candidate James Buchanan decided to stop avoiding campaign appearances with his opponents and agreed last week to a debate it was viewed by some of his supporters as a sign that the avoidance strategy — one often employed by front-runners — was starting to hurt him.
Leading Southwest Florida Republicans have expressed concerns about the District 72 race in recent days. They point to a state Senate contest in Wisconsin as an ominous harbinger for the GOP. A Democrat won a special election for the Wisconsin seat last week, despite President Donald Trump having carried it by 17 percentage points.
Trump won the Sarasota state House district Buchanan is seeking by 4.4 percentage points.
During a normal election cycle, District 72’s GOP leanings combined with Buchanan’s name recognition — he is the son of U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan — and significant financial resources would put the odds in his favor.
But Democrats are fired up to push back against Trump and the GOP agenda in Congress, and that enthusiasm is manifesting itself in races up and down the ballot, including special elections for legislative seats.
Regardless, Democrats have reason to be nervous as well. Republicans still have a significant voter registration advantage in District 72, which covers much of northern Sarasota County. The seat has been held by a Republican since 2010.
And leading Democrats say they’re concerned about the avalanche of mailers Buchanan’s allies have been sending out. Some voters are getting multiple mailers a day that tout Buchanan, tear down Democratic candidate Margaret Good, or both. The sheer volume is alarming top Democrats.
Many of the mailers are sharply negative, calling Good a “liberal lawyer” and hitting her on everything from immigration to the economy. Good’s campaign started punching back last week with a television ad that subtly compares Buchanan to Trump and hits him on the issue of climate change.
Individuals close to both campaigns say Trump’s popularity has declined in the district since the 2016 election. Both sides believe the race is extremely close.
A big wild card is Libertarian Alison Foxall, a Sarasota marketing company owner who is campaigning aggressively and could draw significant support.
In addition to ramping up their advertising, the campaigns are working hard to get their supporters to return absentee ballots.
As of Friday evening, Democrats had a slight edge in the number of absentee ballots returned.
The Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections office mailed out 12,545 ballots to Republicans, 11,308 to Democrats and 3,720 to voters with no party or a minor party affiliation.
Democrats had returned 4,607 absentee ballots as of Friday, compared to 4,283 for Republicans and 1,174 for all other voters.
In 10 days the candidates will face one of their biggest tests so far. The local ABC affiliate is hosting a debate on Jan. 30 on the 7 p.m. news show.
Buchanan's campaign said in December that the candidate "will not be booking any forums as our focus is purely grassroots." But last week the campaign agreed to the television debate.
The debate will be the first time that the three candidates appear together to answer questions. It is must see TV for anyone who cares about local politics.
The special election for the District 72 seat — which became available when former GOP Rep. Alex Miller unexpectedly resigned — isn't just of local interest, though. The race is considered a potential bellwether for whether the political winds are shifting in Florida and nationwide since Trump's election.
Election Day is Feb. 13.