What statistics can and can't tell us about Melbourne's African crime issue
Updated
Politicians, police and community members have been locked in a heated debate about African youth crime in Victoria.
The main bone of contention is whether or not there is in fact a crisis.
We've drilled down into the latest crime stats and found the data is murky and can be used to support both sides.
Sudanese-born people over-represented in crime stats
People born in Sudan make up just 0.1 per cent of Victoria's total population, or about 6,000 people.
Most of those live in Melbourne, mainly in the western and south-eastern suburbs.
Recent data from Victoria's Crime Statistics Agency shows that 0.1 per cent of the population made up 1.4 per cent of all alleged offenders in Victoria — that is, people that police have linked to crimes although they may not necessarily have been found guilty or been charged.
So there clearly is an over-representation, right?
Criminologist Rebecca Wickes believes that comparison is unfair.
"We have a very skewed age distribution within the Sudanese population," Dr Wickes said.
"Fifty per cent of the Sudanese population is under the age of 25, and that's compared with 33 per cent of the Australian general population. So you're not comparing like with like."
As you'd probably guess, the overwhelming majority of crimes in Victoria are committed by people born in Australia, followed by New Zealanders.
Alleged offenders in Victoria by country of birth, 2016-2017
1. Australian
2. New Zealand
3. India
4. Vietnam
5. SudanSource: Victorian Crime Statistics Agency
At number five on the alleged offender list by country of birth is Sudan.
And there are some offences where the over-representation of young Sudanese Victorians really comes into focus.
This chart shows the number of alleged youth offenders aged 10-18 born in Sudan.
| Crime (2016-2017) | Alleged youth offenders born in Sudan | Total offenders |
|---|---|---|
| Serious assault | 54 | 1,860 |
| Non-aggravated burglary | 38 | 1,946 |
| Motor vehicle theft | 109 | 2,191 |
| Aggravated burglary | 60 | 698 |
Source: Victorian Crime Statistics Agency
In the year to September 2017, when you focus on the stats for alleged youth offenders aged between 10 and 18, Sudanese-born Victorians were involved in 3 per cent of serious assaults, 2 per cent of non-aggravated burglaries, 5 per cent of motor vehicle thefts and 8.6 per cent of aggravated burglaries.
It should be said that doesn't include second or third generation Sudanese Victorians, only those born in Sudan. Dr Wickes said that's impossible to account for and that the numbers are still too small to be meaningful.
"There certainly is some over-representation," she said.
"But it's important to also keep in mind that we're talking about a very small number of offences and a very small number of offenders, when you think about the large population of Victoria and the extent to which Victoria has an over-representation of minority groups."
Crime is actually on the decline
Overall, youth crime has fallen in Victoria from half of all incidents 10 years ago to 40 per cent in 2015-16.
And Victoria's total crime rate last year fell by about 6 per cent, the biggest drop in 12 years.
Despite being safer, Dr Wickes is conducting research which suggests Victorians aren't feeling that way.
"We've just completed a survey of Melbourne residents on perceptions towards minority groups and I am quite astounded at how many people who have reported having no contact with the African community feel anger and less warmth towards them than compared to other groups," she said.
"So I think that there is a significant and very worrisome bias in the broader population and frankly I think that that's where we should be focusing our attention."
Topics: law-crime-and-justice, crime, crime-prevention, community-and-society, government-and-politics, federal-government, melbourne-3000
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