(TNS) — A dry winter and an abundance of winter-killed vegetation have combined to create an elevated threat of wildland fires in most of Kansas and the rest of the southern Plains through early spring, officials say.
Above-normal moisture during the growing season of April through September has resulted in "large to significant fuel loads" across the region, said Chip Redmond, a meteorologist with Kansas State University's Mesonet.
Abnormally dry weather west of U.S. 81 over the past three months, along with dry air masses, sunshine and breezy conditions are rapidly depleting remaining moisture, he said.
"With recent forecasts of mid-to-long range dryness continuing, we are setting the stage for some large fires in Kansas," Redmond said in a prepared statement issued with a report from the National Interagency Coordination Center.
Above-normal precipitation in 2015 and 2016 set the sage for large fires the following winters. Substantial wildfires also occurred in southwest Kansas last March.
All of Kansas is now below normal for precipitation, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The extent varies from abnormally dry to severe drought.
While dry winters are not uncommon for Kansas, officials say it will take a wet March and April to make up the moisture deficit and diminish the wildfire threat. That won't happen if the Climate Prediction Center outlook for the next three months verifies.
All but the eastern quarter of Kansas will be drier than normal, the latest outlook projects.
The February through March period is typically very dry in Kansas, averaging only 3.1 inches of total precipitation statewide, assistant state climatologist Mary Knapp said. Any precipitation that does occur will only have short-term impacts on the dried out vegetation until the arrival of spring rains.
"The biggest concern during the next few months will be the occurrence of very warm days," Knapp said. "These are typically associated with very dry air and high winds in advance of a strong storm system. Kansas' largest wildfires are usually dependent on the shifting winds and the lack of moisture associated with these systems."
Such systems are common in late winter and early spring in Kansas, she said.
The best scenario, she added, is a heavy snow. Not only does it bring an area much-needed moisture, it knocks down standing grasses.
That can significantly decrease fire behavior by making it tougher for fires to spread rapidly, Knapp said.