Nuclear war, cyberattacks and environmental disasters top the list of man-made threats to global stability in 2018, according to a survey of 1,000 international leaders from the worlds of business, government, academia and civil society.
The risk of another global financial meltdown, high on the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report in past years, has ebbed because of economic expansions underway worldwide, the annual survey found. It was released Wednesday in advance of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, next week.
Mother nature topped the most significant risks likely facing the world for a second year in a row, the survey found. They include natural disasters and extreme weather events that human-caused climate change may be abetting.
However, the risk of nuclear war — while not viewed as likely — climbed up the list of concerns that would have the greatest impact. This comes as President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's standoff over Pyongyang's tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction has arguably brought the world closer than it has been for decades to the possible use of nuclear weapons.
Ninety-three percent of the survey's respondents expect a worsening of "political or economic confrontations/frictions between major powers" this year. More worryingly, nearly 80% think risks associated with "state-on-state military conflict or incursion" and "regional conflicts drawing in major powers" will be higher than in years past.
Trump will join other world and business leaders in the Swiss Alpine resort Jan. 23-26 for the forum and is scheduled to give the closing address, organizers said Tuesday.
Extreme weather in 2017 included three major Atlantic hurricanes — Harvey, Irma and Maria — and caused the most expensive hurricane season ever, according to the report. Estimates for damage in the United States are as high as $200 billion.
Record high temperatures struck parts of southern Europe to eastern and southern Africa, South America, as well as parts of Russia and China. Last year, President Trump withdrew the United States from the landmark Paris Climate Accord.
Economic risks were less prominent in this year's report partly because the global recovery is underway from recent financial crises. The International Monetary Fund expects global growth of 3.6% for 2017, up from 3.2% in 2016.
The greatest concerns for North American business leaders: cyberattacks, terrorism, asset bubbles, fiscal crises and the failure of adapting to climate change.
"Humanity has become remarkably adept at understanding how to mitigate conventional risks that can be relatively easily isolated," the report's authors note in their summary. "But we are much less competent when it comes to dealing with complex risks in the interconnected systems that underpin our world, such as organizations, economies, societies and the environment."
Other pressing concerns identified in the report for 2018:
• Cyberattacks that target critical infrastructure and strategic industrial sectors. In a worst-case scenario, they could trigger a breakdown in the systems that keep society functioning.
• Data fraud or theft includes the exploitation of private or official data on an unprecedented scale.
• Mitigate climate change. The failure of governments and businesses to enforce or enact effective measures to protect populations and help businesses impacted by climate change.
• Involuntary migration on a large scale induced by conflict, disasters, the environment or for economic reasons.
• Man-made environmental disasters.
• Terrorist attacks by individuals or non-state groups could inflict large-scale human or material damage.
• Illicit financial flows in the form of tax evasion, human trafficking, counterfeiting and/or organized crime.
• Overpriced assets, or bubbles, that could hit commodities, house prices or shares in a major economy or region.
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The report points out that cyber breaches recorded by businesses have almost doubled in five years, from 68 per business in 2012 to 130 per business in 2017.
In 2016 alone, 357 million new malware variants were released, and "banking trojans" designed to steal account login details could be purchased for as little as $500, the report found. The European Aviation Safety Agency, the European Union's industry regulator, said aviation systems see an average of 1,000 cyberattacks each month.
"Geopolitical friction is contributing to a surge in the scale and sophistication of cyberattacks," said John Drzik, president of the consulting group Marsh Global Risk and Digital, referring to a range of simmering conflicts from Ukraine to North Korea.
"While cyber risk management is improving, business and governments need to invest far more in resilience efforts if we are to prevent the same ... gap between economic and insured losses that we see for natural catastrophes," he said.
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Klaus Schwab, the World Economic Forum's founder, said the world was facing an "inflection point" and that one big issue "will certainly be the future of global cooperation related to trade, environment, the fight against terrorism, tax systems, competitiveness — and in this context it’s absolutely essential to have President Trump with us."