
Third baseman Anthony Rendon reached career-highs in home runs (25), RBI (100) and batting average (.301) in 2017. (David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports)
The Washington Nationals have three arbitration-eligible players this winter, Anthony Rendon, Tanner Roark, and Michael A. Taylor, a smaller class than they’ve had in recent years, but a noteworthy one. Rendon compiled an MVP-caliber season last year. Taylor was a Gold Glove finalist. Roark, who experienced some regression, is nevertheless a key part of an aging rotation.
The leaguewide deadline to exchange salary figures with representatives for those players is Friday at 1 p.m. Eastern. Often, the Nationals settle with their players before that deadline, choosing to find middle ground outside of league-sanctioned arbitration hearings that can often produce ill-will. If the team and the player do not settle by that deadline, they may still negotiate until a hearing, though some teams — referred to as “file-and-trial” clubs — set that filing deadline as a drop-dead moment. The Nationals have not held to that rule without exception, but do tend to go to hearings if they have not settled by the deadline. Those hearings usually take place in February, and given that the team argues a player’s value down, those hearings can often foster awkwardness because of the more unflattering arguments teams make against their own.
Though the Nationals have already tendered contracts to all three arbitration-eligible players, meaning there is no risk of losing their services regardless of their arbitration outcomes, they face a particularly complicated group.
Rendon made $5.8 million in arbitration last season, but should earn a substantial raise after hitting .300 with 100 RBI in his most consistent and productive season yet. The staff at MLB Trade Rumors, which predicts these things with useful accuracy, suggests Rendon could make more than $11 million in arbitration this season.
More importantly, however, Rendon is now two seasons away from free agency — a moment at which teams often make a big push to extend their homegrown talent. Both Rendon’s agent, Scott Boras, and Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo have expressed a willingness to discuss an extension. In December, Rendon said he would be open to that possibility, too. An extension would not necessarily have to be done by Friday’s deadline, either. The two sides could negotiate up until their arbitration hearing.
If not an extension, the Nationals could come to terms for more than one year’s salary at a time, a policy they employed with Bryce Harper last winter. Instead of setting themselves up for a potentially contentious arbitration discussion this winter, just before Harper’s final season before free agency, the Nationals came to terms to buy out his last year of arbitration with a record-breaking 2018 salary. In so doing, they avoided unnecessary ill-will months before Harper made a decision about his future, and gave themselves payroll certainty ahead of time. They could do the same with Rendon without signing him past his arbitration-eligible years.
But as of late Thursday night, neither side had given word about whether an extension was taking shape. Also as of late Thursday night, no one would say whether or not anything was done with Roark or Taylor.
Roark’s case will be particularly interesting, as the 31-year-old had what qualifies as a down year given his consistency. After accumulating 15 wins in his first full season as a starter in 2014 and 16 wins in 2016, Roark’s ERA jumped nearly two full runs from those seasons as he won 13 games in 2017. Most around the Nationals speculated that Roark’s extended stint with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic left him scrambling through an unorthodox spring, which in turn disrupted his season. Whatever the reason, he still seems likely to get a raise from the $4.3 million he made last season. Exactly how big that raise will be remains to be seen, though it seems the range could be wide.
Taylor is in his first year of arbitration eligibility, meaning he has no precedent on which to build, and no established salary he must exceed. MLB Trade Rumors projects the Nationals’ presumptive starting center fielder to make $2.3 million next season. If his salary ends up around that mark, Taylor will qualify as a steal for the Nationals, who would be getting a Gold Glove caliber center fielder with 20/20 potential for far less than the cost of a middle reliever.
Whatever the outcome, news will likely trickle out as Friday goes along. No word of a deal by 1 p.m. does not mean no deal exists. Rizzo has a history of taking his more contentious discussions — or, to be frank, the ones involving Boras — to the very last minute. We will update this post with news as it comes.
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