Pat Caputo - Good, bad and mostly ugly current state of Red Wings

The Red Wings, on a five-day bye this week, have played exactly half their games, 41.

And they have just 41 points. It’s a pace, if continued, will assuredly mean the Red Wings missing the Stanley Cup playoffs for the second straight season.

The Red Wings will not be the NHL’s worst team. The Phoenix Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres will “compete” for that “honor,’’ which doesn’t guarantee the first overall pick in the NHL Draft anymore because of the lottery.

So cynical Red Wings’ fans would say they still have a shot, all right - at the first overall pick - considering generational defenseman Rasmus Dahlin from Sweden presents a franchise-changing prize.

For the less exasperated and more hopeful of the Red Wings’ faithful, the playoff chance is faintly alive.

The cold, hard facts hurt: The Red Wings are just a point better than last season at this stage.

In 2016-17, Toronto was the Eastern Conference’s second wild card team with 95 points. Boston, which picked up the third playoff spot from the Atlantic Division, also had 95 points.

It looks like the Red Wings are running in place more than progressing, and the screws could be tightening on general manager Ken Holland and coach Jeff Blashill.

The Red Wings better? Really? Just look at the standings.

While the standings don’t suggest it, there are signs the Red Wings have improved.

Dylan Larkin, now full-time at center, has made considerable progress this season. He’s learned how to create more room on the ice. He’s stronger on his skates and in the upper body. Larkin had a terrible sophomore season compared to his sizzling start as a rookie, but has been better because of the experience.

Larkin has been more consistent than the Red Wings other two young guns, Andreas Athanasiou and Anthony Mantha.

After holding out, Athanasiou has delivered even more breathtaking moments than last season when he became somewhat of a sensation. Boy, is he fast. Oh, can finish around the net. But statistical evidence suggests there is more style than substance from AA. It comes in the form of metrics, specifically his Corsi number in close games (goal up or down or tied) while even strength. It’s 45.6, which is well-below the 50 threshold for average. It strongly hints Athanasiou does not win battles for pucks, nor skates as swiftly to back check as when offensive chances arise. He is minus 10 in 31 games, too.

Larkin’s Corsi close is 50.2, which is up from last season.

Mantha is a gifted player, but after a promising start, his performance has waned. He remains solid metrically, but it looked like he was going to take a genuine step toward stardom early in the season. It’s been considerably less than that.

The Red Wings have an expensive defensive corps with relatively decorated veterans, but where Mike Green would be a second-unit power specialist on solid teams, and a third-pair even-strength defenseman, he’s the Red Wings’ lone All-Star Game representative. Trevor Daly is better at moving the puck than what the Red Wings had, but like Green, he’s leaned on too much. It goes on like that throughout the defensive corps.

Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar are on pace to score more than 20 goals (Nyquist might have a shot at 30), but are not quite the stars projected not long ago.

It’s been a mixed bag for the Red Wings’ prospects. Big forwards Michael Rasmussen (2017) and Evgeny Svechnikov (2015) are recent first-round draft picks who have struggled this season in junior hockey and the AHL, respectively, albeit to a large degree because of injuries.

Defenseman Dennis Cholowski, the first-round choice in 2016, is filling out physically and is thriving in Canadian junior hockey after leaving the American college system. He, surprisingly, nearly worked his way onto the Canadian team for the World Junior Championship before being cut.

But despite his progress, Cholowski, selected 20th overall, continues to pale in comparison to the players selected right in front of him in the ’16 draft.

And it’s glaring considering the Red Wings’ traded down four picks to Arizona for cap relief after Pavel Datsyuk retired, primarily using the money to sign veteran Frans Nielsen to an badly overpriced contract as a free agent.

Arizona, famously at this point, used the selection for defenseman Jakob Chychrun, who has recovered from a knee injury and is back to taking regular NHL shifts.

Defenseman Dante Fabbro was No.17 and has played the last two years for Canada in the WJC. He he has been solid for college power Boston University, and is highly-regarded by the Predators, who have been a defenseman factory.

Kieiffer Bellows is a forward, but the 19th overall pick in the ’16 draft by the Islanders has stood out for the Americans in the WJC the past two years.

A plus: Detroit’s second-round pick in ’17, defenseman Gustav Lindstrom, played well for a very good Swedish squad in the WJC. It seemed like a stretch when the Red Wings took him that soon, but they may have found a diamond in the rough.

Grand Rapids doesn’t have a lot to offer right now. The Griffins, with more than their normal share of minor league veterans, are sixth in a seven-team division. There is not a lot there in regard to advanced prospects, although Tyler Bertuzzi, now with the big club, might be an exception.

Goaltending is a real concern. Petr Mrazek has some the worst stats in the NHL. Of all the goalies who have played in the league in ’17-18, his save percentage of .885 ranks 64th. His 3.78 goals against average is 69th.

There is no goalie in the pipeline currently solidly NHL-caliber in the Red Wings’ organization other than Jimmy Howard, who is still effective - sometimes very effective - but badly and obviously overworked.

The Hockey News recently both praised and slammed Holland in a recent edition. They listed him as the 27th most influential person in the sport because he is, “still a leader on league issues and rules.” Yet, when they went over the future salary cap situations for each organization, they rated the Red Wings dead last.

“What a mess,” The Hockey News wrote. “Larkin, Mantha, Athanasiou need new deals. Barely enough cash to re-up them all since the Wings are buried in a sea of ugly veteran deals.”

Put all together, it doesn’t paint a promising picture.