OK, the Hot Stove League has finally resumed play after a lengthy hiatus. The New York Mets reopened the free-agent marketplace by bringing back Jay Bruce with a three-year, $39 million contract.
That seems like a reasonable deal for the Mets, ESPN.com did raise counterpoints:
- Although Bruce hit 60 homers the last two seasons, he also delivered a .317 on base percentage, which well below average for right fielders.
- The Mets already had Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto to play the corner outfield posts.
- Bruce is a below-average baserunner.
- Bruce's fielding metrics have been all over the place, ranging from OK to terrible. This signing also moves Conforto to center field at least some of the time, which could also be problematic defensively.
But Bruce, who turns 31 on April 3, still got decent money for one-dimensional outfielder in the twilight of his career. He should provide one more inspiration for Randal Grichuk as he tries to battle his way into a regular role somewhere.
This signing doubtlessly eased the angst of the many unsigned free agents waiting out the market. The Athletic columnist Ken Rosenthal offered this take on that:
An official from Major League Baseball expressed minimal concern Sunday, saying, “the players will get their money.” By Opening Day, the unusual nature of this market indeed might be remembered as little more than an aberration. (Scott) Boras, who represents several of the top free agents, including first baseman Eric Hosmer, outfielder J.D. Martinez and right-hander Jake Arrieta, is exhibiting his usual steely patience while pursuing top-of-the-market contracts. The Yankees, Dodgers and other clubs are trying to get under the luxury tax threshold so they can reset their penalty rate to the minimum for the far superior class of 2018-19 — a class likely to elicit an eruption of spending.
Some on the players’ side, though, take a more cynical view, citing the lack of engagement between clubs and many free agents as an indication of possible collusion by the owners to illegally depress free agent salaries. Baseball’s history of collusion — the owners paid the players $280 million to settle three cases in 1990 and another $12 million to address other allegations without an admission of guilt in 2006 — causes some player representatives to react almost reflexively to every hiccup in the market. As recently as 2010, the players raised concerns about collusion, but nothing specific came of those allegations.
TALKIN' BASEBALL
Here is what folks are writing about the clogged marketplace:
Will Leitch, Sports on Earth: "Whatever your thoughts on the home run epidemic, the one thing the explosion did was decrease the value of each individual home run. The home run is the best thing you can do in any particular at-bat, but compared to other home runs, they just meant a little less than they have in the past. And as the free-agent season continues to stubbornly refuse to thaw, it is worth looking at how it is affecting the market. This year, there are three players who finished in the top 10 in home runs who became free agents at the end of the 2017 season: J.D. Martinez, Logan Morrison and Mike Moustakas. None of them have been signed yet. Tellingly, two of them are in serious danger of having their market collapsing all together: While the Red Sox and Martinez continue to dance around each other, neither Morrison nor Moustakas has had much meaningful connection to any team. Morrison, in particular, has even been considered a potential one-year bargain pickup, or even half a platoon. That's sort of crazy, right? Morrison hit 38 homers last year! (To go along with a .353 OBP, his best since his rookie year, by the way.)"
Ted Berg, USA Today: "Martinez is not considered a strong defensive outfielder, and he’s likely only going to get worse in the field as he ages. He’s a good enough hitter to help a team even without ever stepping foot in the outfield, but many clubs now seem to favor using a rotating DH spot to provide rest to their regulars. A Scott Boras client, Martinez is not expected to come cheap, and investing nine figures in his services will mean committing big money over a long term to a one-dimensional player. His one dimension just happens to be pretty darn awesome."
Jay Jaffe, SI.com: "Martinez, who turned 30 on August 21, is coming off a career year in which he hit .303/.376/.690 with 45 homers and a 166 OPS+ for the Tigers (who dealt him for three prospects on July 18) and the Diamondbacks. Only Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge hit more homers, but nobody outdid Martinez’s slugging percentage. Remarkably, he put up those numbers in just 119 games, having missed the first 33 due to a sprained right foot. It was the second year in a row that Martinez has missed roughly a quarter of the season due to injuries; in 2016, he was limited to 120 games by a non-displaced fracture of his right elbow, suffered while running into an outfield wall. Despite his absences, Martinez has proven to be a heavy hitter, at least since being released by the Astros—who drafted him in the 20th round back in 2008—in the spring of 2014. To that point, he’d hit a meager .251/.300/.387 in three years (2011–13) with Houston, but in Detroit, he revamped his mechanics, adjusting his swing plane to keep his bat in the strike zone longer and generate more loft on the ball. From 2014–17, he hit a combined .300/.362/.574 for a 149 OPS+; among players with at least 1,000 PA in that span, that's tied with the since-retired David Ortiz and Arizona teammate Paul Goldschmidt for fourth in the majors, behind only Mike Trout (175), Joey Votto (163) and Stanton (154)."
Andrew Baggarly, The Athletic: "No matter what they do to address the roster, the Giants absolutely must restock their system, and get younger and more athletic. You don’t invest in overhauling your player development system only to punt draft picks. That would be like buying a Ferrari and cutting up your gas card. You have to put something in to get something out. But signing J.D. Martinez, who requires no draft picks? Sure, why not?Trading for a year of (Andrew) McCutchen, and taking on his salary? Who’s stopping them? And why stop there? Could you imagine Yu Darvish joining a Giants rotation with Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija?"
MEGAPHONE
“They’re gonna have games where they bludgeon people. But we have some right-handed power arms that I think will help against them, so they shouldn’t beat us up as much as some other teams that have those soft-tossing lefties.”
Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona, on the New York Yankees.