LeBron James is the NBA MVP, and it isn’t close

Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James is averaging close to a triple-double per night, scoring 27.2 points with 9.0 assists and 8.2 rebounds per game. (Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)

At first blush, this season’s race for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award appears to be wide open. James Harden was the front-runner until a hamstring injury cost him a part of the season, opening the door for any number of candidates, including Stephen Curry, DeMar DeRozan and Giannis Antetokounmpo. But Cleveland Cavaliers star LeBron James is so far ahead of all of them there should be no debate that right now he is the league’s most valuable player this season.

James satisfies two requirements essential for any MVP candidate: he is the best player in the league and the biggest contributor to team wins.

This season, James is averaging close to a triple-double, scoring 27.2 points with 9.0 assists and 8.2 rebounds per game. He ranks in the top 20 percent of NBA players for scoring efficiency in the half court (1.0 points per possession) and in transition (1.3), with an overall effective field goal rate that ties a career-high set in 2013-14 at 61 percent. None of the 26 players taking at least 600 field goal attempts this season has been a more efficient shooter than James in 2017-18. That’s remarkable for a player who uses almost 31 percent of his team’s possessions (field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers). For context, last year’s MVP, Russell Westbrook, posted an effective field goal rate of 48 percent.

Before this season, there have been just four instances since the addition of the three-point line (1979-80) in which a player qualified for the scoring title while using over 30 percent of his team’s possessions with an effective field goal rate of 60 percent or higher. None finished worse than second in the MVP voting, with James and Curry each winning the award.

Factor in James’s free throw shooting — which creates a true shooting rate of 64 percent — and James is one of two players to hit that high of a mark with a usage rate of 30 percent or more. Curry is the other.

But James is more than just a scorer. His 18.2 potential assists per game, passes that would have resulted in assists had the ensuing shot been successful, is second only to Westbrook (19.9). James accounts for 12 percent of his team’s assists when he is on court. Add that in to his usage rate and James accounts for nearly one out of every two plays (43 percent) for the Cavaliers when he is on the court. That, too, distances James from the pack.

Since 1973-74, the first year combined usage data is available, only nine players have contributed that much to their team while also qualifying for the scoring title. Add in the caveat that a player also needs an effective field goal rate of 60 percent or more and you are left with one: James in 2017-18.

This overall domination while on the court has made James the most valuable player in the league this season, a campaign worth a league-leading 12.4 wins above replacement according to Basketball Reference’s value over replacement formula (4.6 VORP). James ranks a narrow second to Antetokounmpo in Mike Beuoy’s win probability added metric, however, once you also factor in a player’s rebounds, assists, steals and blocks — also known as Beuoy’s “kitchen sink WPA” — no one is close to James in terms of on-court value.

There is still half a season of basketball to play, and we have already seen an injury significantly change the dynamics of the race, but it is clear James is the player to beat for the league’s MVP award.

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