Nine of the last 10 NFL drafts have produced at least one quarterback who has been better than anything passing through Cleveland in the expansion era. New GM John Dorsey can have any QB he wants as he plunges headlong into the 2018 draft.
College football season fades into the rearview. Here comes Cleveland around Dead Man's Curve.
The Browns lead the pack turning into draft season with picks at No. 1 and No. 4 overall and two more picks at the top of the second round.
New general manager John Dorsey has the wheel, needing to avoid the epic potholes that swallowed his predecessors.
Tom Heckert, Ray Farmer and Sashi Brown all operated at least one draft with two first-round picks, but none had the stash on which Dorsey sits, and all made mistakes reflected in a 4-44 record across the last three seasons.
Dorsey, 57, must apply his copious scouting experience to a tricky QB class.
Analyst Mike Mayock, who says it will be "a fun draft for quarterbacks," likes Josh Rosen's "beautiful release and strong arm." Rosen looked Superman in a 2017 opener, rallying UCLA out of a 44-10 hole to a 45-44 win over Texas A&M, but he fell into a worrisome 3-5 slump.
Sam Darnold replaced Cody Kessler as USC's starter in 2016 and had an 11-2 record in 2017 before laying an egg against Ohio State in a bowl game. He won't turn 21 until June. Mayock says Darnold's athleticism and poise should serve him well as he matures.
Wyoming's Josh Allen draws comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Wentz, but his 56.2 completion percentage in 2017 was near the 53.6 that got DeShone Kizer in trouble with the Browns.
"He's raw," Mayock said of the 6-foot-5, 240-pound Allen, "but boy is he intriguing."
Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield logged the most exciting season among the top QBs, but there are concerns a Heisman Trophy isn't all he has in common with Johnny Manziel.
Louisville's Lamar Jackson won the Heisman in 2016, but his choppy 2017 ended with a four-interception bowl loss to Mississippi State.
Ourlads sees Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph as the third-best QB prospect in the draft, behind Mayfield and Rosen, and ahead of Darnold, Jackson and Allen.
The Browns can have any of the above. Dorsey's challenge: Sort through the noise; find the top dog.
Cleveland needs far better quarterback play than anyone has provided since the Browns came back in 1999.
All but one of the last 10 drafts had such a QB, a point providing hope, if Dorsey is worth his salt. A quick review:
- 2008
Matt Ryan (No. 3 overall, Falcons) and Joe Flacco (No. 18, Ravens) were the first QBs taken and became the only ones of consequence. Their combined NFL record is 201-134, including 14-10 in postseasons.
- 2009
Matthew Stafford (No. 1, Lions), Mark Sanchez (No. 5, Jets) and Josh Freeman (No. 17, Bucs) are the three who got prolonged chances to start. The dropoff after Stafford is steep.
- 2010
Oft-injured Sam Bradford (No. 1 overall, Rams) still has time. For Tim Tebow (No. 25, Broncos), Jimmy Clausen (No. 48, Panthers) and Colt McCoy (No. 85, Browns), time's up.
- 2011
Cam Newton (No. 1, Panthers) went to a Super Bowl as league MVP. Andy Dalton (No. 35, Bengals) and Colin Kaepernick (No. 36, 49ers) have had moments. Jake Locker (No. 8, Titans), Blaine Gabbert (No. 10, Jaguars) and Christian Ponder (No. 12, Vikings) remind Dorsey there can be lots of names without there being lots of players.
- 2012
It would be interesting to hear Dorsey explain who between Andrew Luck (No. 1, Colts) and Russell Wilson (No. 75, Seahawks) he would take right now. Kirk Cousins (No. 102, Redskins) is having a decent career. Robert Griffin III (No. 2, Redskins), Ryan Tannehill (No. 8, Dolphins) and Brandon Weeden (No. 22, Browns) wasted a lot of their teams' time.
- 2013
One might take Landry Jones (No. 115, Steelers) over EJ Manuel (No. 16, Bills) and Geno Smith (No. 39, Jets) now. Or, one might just forget this class existed.
- 2014
Jimmy Garoppolo (No. 62, Patriots) suddenly is as appealing as Derek Carr (No. 36, Raiders). Blake Bortles (No. 3, Jaguars) is presentable but unloved. Manziel (No. 22, Browns), Teddy Bridgewater (No. 32, Vikings) and AJ McCarron (No. 164, Bengals) have drifted into the shadows.
- 2015
Marcus Mariota (No. 2, Titans) has Jameis Winston (No. 1, Bucs) after a playoff win at Kansas City. The top also-rans were Brett Hundley (No. 147, Packers) and Trevor Siemian (No. 250, Broncos).
- 2016
The guess is Dorsey never would have passed on Carson Wentz (No. 2, Eagles). Jared Goff (No. 1, Rams) made up a ground while Dak Prescott (No. 135, Cowboys) regressed between their first and second seasons.
- 2017
Deshaun Watson (No. 12, Texans) was going places before blowing out a knee. Mitch Trubisky (No. 2, Bears) and Patrick Mahomes (No. 10, Chiefs) go forward as mystery men.
Can Dorsey be a mystery solver?
Reach Steve at 330-580-8347 or
steve.doerschuk@cantonrep.com
On Twitter: @sdoerschukREP