Iran at crossroads: Important things to know about the anti-government protests

About 22 Iranians have been killed since December 28 when anti-government protests began in Iran’s northeastern city of Mashhad. Tens of thousands, especially young, took to the streets as demonstrations spread to over 80 cities by the first weekend of 2018. 

The protests have more or less died down. However, the resentment that fuelled them has not been addressed yet. Many have said that Iran is at a crossroads and that “changes are afoot”. Express takes a look at the current protests and its antecedents 

Who are the protesters and what do they want? 

There has been a measurable decline in Iran’s living standards since the US imposed sanctions took effect in 2006. As a result of the subsequent plunge in the value of the rial, the Iranian currency, the country has been battling a double-digit inflation. This has pushed up the prices of essential commodities. Behrang Tajdin, an Iranian journalist, told the BBC’s Radio 4 that his countrymen used to drink twice as much milk seven years ago than they do today. They were eating 50 per cent more red meat in 2007 than today. In other words, they can no longer afford the same quantity of food that they used to 10 years ago. 

So, when the price of eggs went up by 50 per cent overnight, people of Mashhad felt they could not keep quiet anymore. So, they hit the streets in large numbers, shouting anti-government slogans. Soon, tens of thousands of Iranians from across the country, who have also been feeling the pinch of inflation, joined them. 

However, it’s not just the food prices, although they were the precipitating factor. For more than a decade now, Iran has been battling a youth unemployment rate of more than 20 per cent.  In fact, in 2017, over 25 percent of youngsters between 15 and 24 years of age were unemployed, according to the International Labour Organisation. Further, analysts say Iranians are dismayed by the lack of improvement in their living conditions, despite the relaxation of international sanctions. 

In other words, Iran is dealing with what experts call a “crisis of expectation”. Political leaders, including president Hassan Rouhani, promised jobs and better living standards ahead of last year’s presidential election. However, not much has materialised, leading to resentment.  

How different are today’s protests from that of 2009?

The economy was not a major issue back then. In fact, Iranians were better off economically in 2009 than they are today. The driving concerns were deteriorating human rights condition, suppression of dissent and Iran’s growing international isolation. In other words, those who took part in the Green Movement -- as the protests of 2009 came to known -- were unhappy about the political direction their country was taking. 

What sparked the Islamic Revolution of 1979? 

Although the Iranian Revolution of 1979 is a result of a combination of factors, including western imperialism, the clergy’s hatred of the Shah and so on, the state of the Iranian economy in the late 1970s was a critical factor. 

Mohammad Reza Shah, like his father, Reza Khan, signed off on a lot of development projects. The pace of growth caused the inflation rate to spike. The oil shock of 1973 and the resultant windfall in oil revenue, brought more money into the already inflated economy. The price of nearly everything went up. 

Further, according to Robert Graham, the author of the book, Iran: The Illusion of Power, the oil crisis not only produced an “alarming” rate of inflation, but also widened the gap between the rich and the poor, and created a perception in the minds of many ordinary Iranians that the beneficiaries of the oil boom were none other than the elites. 

In other words, like how the relaxation of western sanctions gave hope to millions of young Iranians, the oil boom of the 1970s created a crisis of expectation among ordinary Iranians, who hoped to reap its rewards but were left dismayed. 

Moreover, the austerity measures imposed by Mohammad Reza Shah in 1977 to fight inflation caused the economy to shrink, causing widespread unemployment. 

As opposition to his rule mounted, the Shah decided that it was in his best interest to placate his opponents by offering them limited concessions. 

Thereafter, he allowed public discussions on many issues. In the two-year-period between 1977 and 1979, press enjoyed a greater degree of freedom. Newspapers were allowed to criticise the policies of the government. However, once he started liberalising, things began going out of the Shah’s hands. Those who wanted to depose him made use of the newfound freedoms to rally the country against his rule. 

The late 1970s was also a period of great turmoil and uncertainty, which led many Iranians to seek solace in the promise of Islam. However, this is not to say that all Iranians who took part in the revolution of 1979 were pious Muslims who wanted to get rid of the Western-backed, secular-minded Shah. 

In fact, those who coalesced under Islamic cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s leadership in 1978-79 included liberals and communists. So, what brought them all under the umbrella of a theocrat? They were united by their desire to get rid of the corrupt, pro-western Shah whose policies, they felt, had ruined Iran. However, they had differing priorities about the nature of the government that should replace the Shah’s dysfunctional regime.

In fact, there are historians who argue that a lot of Iranians who took part in the revolution were not fighting to bring about an Islamic government. 

According to Dr Roham Alvandi, a professor of Iranian studies at the London School of Economics, it is not accurate to use the adjective “Islamic” to describe the revolution of 1979, as many of those who took part and supported Khomeini, were unaware of his plans for the post-Shah Iran. In fact, until he landed in Tehran in April 1979, Khomeini himself was tight-lipped about it.

Reformists vs conservatives

Many assume that Iran is a country of hardline Islamists seeking to bring about apocalypse. This is not true. Although Islam has been a part and parcel of the Iranian identity, for long periods in the past, especially after Reza Khan took over as the Shah of Iran in 1921, the country saw many reforms that took it closer to the West. 

However, following the revolution of 1979, Islam became a dominant facet of Iranian life almost overnight, which shocked many, especially youngsters who came of age during the reign of liberal-minded Pahlavis. On top of that, the revolutionary regime, insecure in its position of power (as most revolutionary regimes are), built a security state that routinely executed people, suspected of disloyalty.

Dr Alvandi notes that the Islamic state put in place by Ayatollah Khomeini, was sharply at odds with the expectation of many, especially the youth,  who participated in the movement to overthrow the Shah. He called it a “traumatic experience” for many Iranians.

The victory of Mohammad Khatami in 1996 and that of Hassan Rouhani in 2013 were seen as evidence that the balance is slowly but steadily tipping in favour of the reformists, although the religious establishment continues to have a firm grip over all affairs of the state. 

However, today, nearly half of Iran’s population in under the age of 30, which means they came of age in the twenty-first century. Most of them are exposed to western ideas and are aware of the political rights enjoyed by people in the West. They are less committed to the ideals of the 1979 revolution and are more concerned about making the ends meet. 

In the years ahead, Iran may see more demands, not less, for reform, which means the conservatives would have a tough time staying relevant. “The experience of Islamic government in Iran since 1979 has turned many Iranians against political Islam and the attitudes of those Iranians have secularised,” wrote Michael Axworthy, a British academic and Iranian expert in his book Revolutionary Iran: A History of the Islamic Republic.

Why do Iranians hate the West? Or do they? 

Many think that Iranians hate the West because they are simply “very Islamic” and see the western societies as agents of moral perversion. This is a common misconception, especially in the western countries. Anti-American demonstrations are not uncommon in Iran. 

Although Iran adopted western ways of clothing and education, these did not improve average Iranian’s perception of western countries. For long, the western powers have used Iran to satisfy their needs. 

This is especially true of Russia and Britain, and more recently, the United States. In the late nineteenth century and during the early 20th century, both Britain and Russia sanctioned huge sums of money as loans to the Iranian Shahs in return for economic concessions. 

The Qajars kings, who ruled Iran prior to the advent of the Pahlavis, granted exclusive economic privileges to foreigners, which included exclusive right to trade in certain key commodities.This angered the traditional merchant class, whose position in the market was undermined by the sudden influx of western goods, and the religious establishment, which saw concessions and the growing presence of westerners in Iran as a humiliation 

Further, in 1901, William Knox D’Arcy, a British petroleum and chemical engineer, discovered that Iran was lying over a massive reserve of oil. In fact, it was the first discovery of oil in the Middle East. At the time, Iran owed Britain huge sums of money, which effectively tied the hands of Shah Nasr Al-din. In the end, Iranians were told that they will get 16 per cent of the profits generated from the sale of their oil. The rest will go to London. 

This sort of exploitation continued until Mohammad Mossadegh nationalised the Iranian oil, restoring the pride of many Iranians. However, the victory was short lived. The western-backed coup that followed, once again confirmed to the Iranians of the foul motives of America and Britain.

More recently, the US imposed sanctions have caused living standards to plummet. This has once again stirred up antipathy against the West. 

Although US president Donald Trump warned Tehran not to use of force against the protesters, Iranians today are aware that western countries have little interest in their welfare. 

Having said this, it is worth noting that many Iranians, more so the young,  admire western ways of life. Levis and McDonalds are very popular in metropolitan cities like Tehran. Thousands of Iranians travel to the US and UK every year for higher studies. “Young Iranians have an Islamic identity but a ‘Western exterior’,” an Iranian cleric told the TIME Magazine.

Timeline: Key moments in Iranian history since 1890

1890 Tobacco protests

Tehran merchants took to the streets protesting a concession granted by Nasr Al-din Shah to a British tobacco company that gave it the exclusive right to produce and sell tobacco in Iran for 50 years.  

1901 Oil discovery
William Knox D’Arcy, a British chemical engineer discovered massive oil reserves beneath Iran. Soon, the Anglo Persian Oil Company acquired the right to extract Iran’s oil and sell it on the international market. 

1905-1908 Constitutional revolution 
A movement led by merchants and clerics that called for a representative assembly and limits to the Shah’s power.  Iranian Majlis was established during this period. 

1939-45 World War One 
During the First World War, Iran’s oil was a vital strategic asset for Britain. Germany attacked British possessions in Iran.

1921 Reza Khan 
With the support of Britain, Reza Khan, a tribal leader, marched to Tehran with his supporters where he crowned himself as the first Shah of the new dynasty, called the Pahlavis. 

1947 crisis of Soviet withdrawal
Soviet Union’s refusal to withdraw from Iran at the end of the Second World War caused friction among the erstwhile allies. It was the first crisis of the new order. 

1951 Oil nationalisation
Socialist Nationalist leader Mohammad Mossadegh was elected as the prime minister of Iran in April 1951. He nationalized the Iranian oil, causing outrage in Washington and London. 

1953 coup
CIA-backed coup overthrows Mossadegh

1953 Shah ascendant
Shah Mohammad Reza reasserts his authority. Iran becomes increasingly pro-western under his leadership.

1963 White Revolution
Shah Reza launches large-scale reforms to prevent a communist takeover. The key component was the land-reform program. Land was taken away from the rich and was given to the peasants. In doing so the Shah hoped to win the peasants' backing for his rule.  

October 1964, Exile of Khomeni 
Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini was exiled to Paris for criticising diplomatic immunity granted to American military personnel in Iran. Washington had sent military experts to train Iranians in using modern arms imported from the US. 

1977-79
Opposition to the Shah’s rule intensifies. Economic hardships undermine the living standards of ordinary Iranians. 

January 16, 1979
Revolutionaries throng Tehran. The Shah flees to Egypt. 

April 1, 1979

Ayatollah Ruhola Khomeni proclaims the Islamic Republic of Iran

November 4, 1979 
Protesters ransack the US Embassy in Tehran calling it the “Den of thieves” 52 Americans were taken, hostage. They were released 444 days later, in January 1981

September 22, 1980 
War erupted between Iran and Iraq over disputed territory. 

July 1988
Iran and Iraq accepted a ceasefire, bringing an end to the eight-year war, which claimed over one million lives.

1995 sanctions
US imposed sanctions against Iran over its alleged sponsorship of “terrorism” 

May 1997  
Reformist Mohammad Khatami wins the presidential election.

July 1999  
Pro-reformists organised large scall demonstrations outside the University of Tehran, protesting the closure of a reformist newspaper Salam. 

June 2005 
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Tehran’s ultra-conservative mayor, wins the presidential elections.

October 2007 
The US announces sanctions against Iran for its alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons. 

June 2009, Green Movement

Tens of thousands gather in Tehran to protest the results of the presidential election, which they say was rigged.

June 2013, Rouhani wins
Reformist cleric Hassan Rouhani wins the presidential election, securing 50 per cent of the total votes. 

July 2015, Iran deal
World powers reach a deal with Iran, limiting its nuclear enrichment in return for the lifting of economic sanctions

December 2017
Protest erupts in over 80 cities against the rising price of commodities and decline in standard of living.