Collective effort must for Rohingya crisis resolution

The Rohingya crisis is not about ethnic cleansing. It is a result of a well-planned strategy by neighbouring nations, including China, which have their own interests in mind

During my recent visit to Dhaka and interaction with top Bangladeshi Ministers, diplomats and defence strategists over there, one strand that was common in their interpretation about the Rohingya crisis was that it was no more about ethnic and religious minority cleansing, as many had sought to project and highlighted it to be, but a result of a well-planned and well coordinated action strategy of four nations — China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Myanmar — whose leaders, in order to secure their own respective national interests and also their geo-political and economic goals, goaded the Myanmar military to unleash mindless violence on the Rohingyas, thereby forcing over six lakh of them to seek refuge in neighbouring Bangladesh.

During the interface, all of them agreed that Rohingyas are but a victim of the Chinese economic aggression in Myanmar’s Rakhine Province. Since Beijing has begun investing heavily (about $10 billion) in modernising Sittwe port and building oil and gas pipelines from Sittwe to Yunan in south China and also building special economic zones to ‘develop’ Rakhine’s huge and rich untapped natural resources, natural gas, oil, timber, tin and precious gems and stones, it wants to safeguard its investments and assets in this Province, bordering Bangladesh. Moreover, their investments  are going to treble in the coming years, which makes China an important stakeholder in whatever happens in Rakhine Province.

The presence of Islamic terror groups like the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, Afghanistan and Syria returned battle-hardened Rohingya warriors, makes China extremely nervous. Beijing considers their presence in Rakhine a threat to its investment. It does not want a repeat of its experience in Balochistan, where its nationals, working on projects being executed under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, have been attacked, kidnapped and even killed. Actually, Rakhine is critically important for China as it is going to be its crucial future economic hub and in terms of connectivity, it is going to be a highly sensitive area under its ‘One Belt One Road’ economic policy. Moreover, Beijing's economic interests in Rakhine will not prosper if the Muslim Rohingyas are not wholly uprooted from their hearth and home. Beijing’s projects may not thrive as one of the pre-conditions for its success is that it must get enough land, Rakhine’s natural resources  at throwaway rates without causing any popular unrest.

A senior Bangladeshi diplomat said on condition of anonymity, “The Rohingya crisis has been thrust upon us because of Chinese economic aggression in Rakhine. China has consciously pursued this policy as it knows that a comparatively smaller and economically weaker Bangladesh is not in a position to checkmate its powergame in its backyard. China also knows Dhaka is in no position to spoil its existing excellent relation with Beijing. Besides, with India’s ambitious Kaladan project stagnating, China wants to speed up the completion schedule of its projects in Rakhine so that it can be firmly one up on India in Myanmar.”

The most curious aspect of the Rohingya crisis is that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have also contributed handsomely to its creation in pursuance of their own agenda. While the Pakistani objective is purely political, the Saudi objective is religious — to bring the peripheral Muslim groups, like the Rohingyas, under its wahibi sway. Pakistanis, who have always patronised the Rohingyas, especially the extremist kind, have relentlessly incited them to take up arms for liberating Rakhine. The Pakistanis consciously pursued this line knowing well that this would unleash a violent backlash from the junta, forcing lakhs to seek refuge in Bangladesh. The Pakistanis had for long been working for the large-scale displacement of Rohingyas from their roots and their eventual exodus to Bangladesh so as to enlarge their committed political constituency in that country.

The Pakistanis had hoped that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s known misgivings for the Rohingyas, because of a large section  getting radicalised with Pakistani help, coupled with her battling against Pakistan-backed Islamic  militants, would induce her to shut Bangladesh’s door to the Rohingya influx. The Pakistanis had further hoped that this move on Hasina’s part would unleash such a massive anti-Awami League backlash and create a strong pro-Islamic sentiment that Khaleda Zia-led 20-party Islamic alliance  would easily coast to victory by riding on the crest of an Islamic wave. But Hasina outsmarted the Pakistanis by agreeing to provide refuge and relief to the Rohingyas and sympathising with their plight in ways which overnight earned her the sobriquet “mother of humanity.” The Pakistani game plan was and still is to use the Rohingyas as a tool to politically stump Hasina ahead of next year’s Parliamentary poll. Even now, the pro-Pakistan Jamatis and other Islamic elements have remained undaunted in their objective. Almost everyday, they take bus loads of supporters to refugee camps to incite Rohingyas to wage war against Myanmar and are asked, “Are you ready to fight against Myanmar to uphold Muslim pride?” Refugees loudly proclaim, in unison “Yes we are.”

The inhuman persecution of the Rohingyas is the result of Buddhist clergy spearheading a vicious anti-Rohingya movement against their separatist and terror activities. This brought about a convergence of Chinese and Myanmarese interests to rid Rakhine of the Rohingyas and the military junta readily obliged the Chinese by taking the specious plea that Rohingyas being  Bengalis had no right to stay in Myanmar.

By providing refuge to Rohingyas, Hasina has invited upon herself the most serious challenge to her political career. The biggest challenge is that just when there is substantial buoyancy in her country’s economy, which is poised for a take-off, taking care of more than 10 lakh refugees is going to be a big drag on the country’s limited resources.  As the world is suffering from aid fatigue, international aid and funding for refugee relief is grossly inadequate. The outcome is that the Bangladesh Government is spending two million dollar a day to take care of the Rohingyas. Even the World Food Programme is not receiving enough supplies from its international pool, forcing it to buy rice from local markets, which is fast depleting Bangladesh’s food stocks. Although Hasina has deployed the military around refugee camps, which have ring fence around to stop the Rohingyas from slipping out and merging with the local population, yet there is a sizable Rohingya presence in every nook and corner of Bangladesh. “Already the odds are heavily weighed against us and if we let them stay in our camps for long, it will have a serious unsettling effect on our economy, politics and law and order,” said a fellow of BISS.

What is worrying many in the Government is that there are Opposition leaders who openly profess, “We  must help the Rohingyas to fight to get an independent Rakhine nation.” Some are for Bangladesh, waging a war against Myanmar. Actually, Hasina has inherited the legacy of an issue thoroughly mishandled — first by General Ziaur Rahman during his presidency, followed by his wife Khaleda Zia during her Prime Ministership almost three decades ago. 

Both, Gen Ziaur and his wife never handled the Rohingya issue with the seriousness it deserved. In 1992, her Government signed an agreement with Yangon, which wholly favoured the junta. For instance, one absurd clause of the agreement said only those refugees would be sent back who could produce their nationality and property documents. The other unfavourable clause was that in case of any disagreement, Myanmar’s say will be final. “Khaleda Zia consciously agreed to these clauses as she wanted the majority of six lakh refugees to stay back and become her party’s vote bank. Subsequently this happened. Unfortunately, these two clauses have been retained on Myanmar’s strong insistence in the Memorandum of Understanding signed by Bangladesh with NayPyi Daw last month. These two clauses are major stumbling blocks to wholesale return of Rohingyas to Myanmar.” For the moment, it seems we are stuck with the Rohingya problem,” said Tariq A Karim former High Commissioner of Bangladesh in India.

With no sources of livelihood to sustain them, Rohingyas have become ready recruits for banned home-grown terror groups like the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen, Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami, Ansarullah Bangla Team and also international terror groups like the Taliban, the Islamic State and the Al Qaeda. “Our worry is that the future generation of Rohingyas will not be as tolerant as the present one. Having heard tales of persecution and indignity suffered by their parents and grandparents, they will be more combative and vengeful. If the world opinion does not force Myanmar to take back all the refugees, the whole Indian sub-continent will have a serious security problem at hand. The Rohingyas will act as freewheeling mercenaries, spilling death and destruction. That’s why India too has to play a meaningful role in the resolution of this crisis,” Tariq A Karim added.

(The writer is a veteran Kolkata-based journalist)