Friday’s economic headline was good news—Statistics Canada reported December unemployment fell to 5.7%. No doubt Justin Trudeau and Bill Morneau will be popping corks and patting each other on the back.

Look deeper.

Over two-thirds of December’s new jobs were part-time—55,000 part-time, just 24,000 full-time.

And it’s a trend. In each recent recession there’s been a part-time shift. And while in the expansion that follows there’s a trend back to full-time jobs there’s never a full recovery, according to Statistics Canada data.

In 1990 there were 5.0 full-time workers for every part-time worker. At the end of December 2017, there were only 4.2 full-time workers for each part-time worker. In a world of more part-time work, headline unemployment numbers don’t tell the same story they used to.

Friday’s jobs report was the last major piece of public data before the Bank of Canada meeting on January 17, when it will release its quarterly report and decide whether to increase interest rates. That decision will be telling—and have a big impact.

Since the 2007 recession, the Bank of Canada has used ultra-low interest rates to pump up the economy with loads of credit. In their theory, more loan credit would spur consumers and businesses to spend and invest, reviving the economy—though many would argue it’s only inflated house prices and propped up the stock market while the real economy stagnated.

Either way, a decade of ultra-low interest rates has Canadians holding historic levels of debt—over $2.1 trillion dollars on houses, condos, cars, credit cards, tuition and other credit as of last September.

On Jan. 17, if the Bank of Canada agrees the economy is strong, it’ll hike interest rates a quarter-point, increasing the cost of debts. But if the Bank thinks the economy is weak, there’ll be no rate hike and the debt mountain will continue unabated.

Neither choice is good. A rate hike will hurt the economy—and the bigger the debt mountain grows, the more it will hurt.

Adding a quarter point to borrowing will considerably cut disposable income, according to estimates using bank mortgage calculators and the CRA’s payroll deductions calculator based on Ontario tax rates.

For a Canadian with a $500,000 mortgage, a quarter-point rate increase will cost almost $800 a year—more than the weekly after-deductions pay on a $50,000 annual income.

On a $750,000 mortgage, a quarter-point would cost almost $1,200 a year—more than one week’s take-home pay on an $80,000 annual income. Ouch.

Also coming on Jan. 17 is the Bank’s next quarterly report, which may contradict the glee club tones in the PMO. The last one certainly did.

Last October the Bank found the unemployment rate “likely overstated the degree of improvement in the labour market.” It noted low youth participation rates and high part-time employment. It reported that “wage growth also remains below historical averages” while “labour productivity has grown faster than hourly compensation.”

And according to that report, GDP growth is expected to fall back this year and even more in 2019.

For those who benefitted from the housing and stock market boom, it’s all just a pause. But for Canadians who rely on work income, the party may be over before they even get there. Where’s a plan for them?

— Tom Parkin is a former NDP staffer and social democrat media commentator.