Though results remain to be seen, President Donald Trump is already starting to deliver on a promise to make friends with the oil industry that fuels Houma-Thibodaux and Louisiana's economies.
Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke's announcement Thursday the administration's will seek to open 90 percent of federal waters off U.S. coasts to oil and gas drilling drew uniform praise from industry officials and advocates locally and nationwide. Also predictably, it drew widespread opposition from environmentalists and lawmakers in several states that have long opposed drilling off their shores.
Houma-Thibodaux and Louisiana know a lot about the pros and cons of offshore oil and gas drilling. This community has seen the best of times during the booms that have led to plenty of jobs and economic prosperity. And it has seen the worst of times in the form of the 2010 BP oil spill, the industry's contribution to coastal land loss and the periodic oil busts.
The latter, an ongoing bust that has stripped about 16,000 jobs from Terrebonne and Lafourche over the past three and a half years, has residents wondering whether Trump's drilling proposal will pay off locally.
Whether that happens depends on a lot of ifs. Oil is a global commodity, influenced by a complex web of factors such as supply and demand, political unrest, currency values and a continuing push by many countries to ween themselves off fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources.
Let's run through a few ifs based on what we know so far. Here we go. Trump's plan to expand offshore drilling could produce local jobs ...
If it's enacted at all. Trump has spent much of his first year undoing the executive actions of his predecessor, President Barack Obama. His successor could do the same.
If Congress doesn't scuttle it. The biggest economic benefit to Houma-Thibodaux would come if Trump succeeds in opening the eastern Gulf to drilling. An industry study shows that could create thousands of jobs and economic expansion in Louisiana, and Terrebonne and Lafourche stand to be among the biggest beneficiaries. The main reasons are Port Fourchon, already a service hub for the rest of the Gulf, and the many service companies operating in the two parishes. But past efforts to open the eastern Gulf have failed, and the same environmentalists and bipartisan coalition in Congress are already working to ensure it remains that way.
If oil prices rise. This is a big one. Economists, analysts and industry executives widely concur that it will take a consistent crude price of $60 a barrel or higher to reignite investment in the deepwater Gulf. It will cost even more to drill in places like California, the East Coast or Alaska, where infrastructure like service companies, fabricators, boats and crews and ports are non-existent. Prices have ranged between $50 and $60 in recent weeks, but analysts differ over whether that trend will continue. Whether it does depends on those complex factors I mentioned earlier, especially whether the global oil glut ebbs. One of the reasons it hasn't is U.S. shale, where drillers can break even with prices as low as $30 a barrel. It's booming there at the expense of offshore oilfields. If oil prices fail to rise significantly and consistently, opening new offshore areas to drilling will fail to attract investment.
If lawsuits don't delay or defeat it. Environmental groups will sue. So will states that oppose drilling off their shores.
A lot of other ifs remain, and they'll be debated in coming weeks as Trump's plan undergoes public hearings. Still more ifs that have nothing to do with his plan could determine whether the local job picture improves. As always, most of the questions will be answered far outside the boundaries of Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes.
-- Executive Editor Keith Magill can be reached at 985-857-2201 or keith.magill@houmatoday.com. Follow him on Twitter @CourierEditor.