Brexit WARNING: 'Merkel will draw the line!' Expert warns Germany will SABOTAGE Brexit
GERMAN Leader Angela Merkel could sabotage Brexit as she will try to draw a line on a trade deal for the UK that will not inspire other member states to leave the EU, according to Eurasia Group director Mij Rahman.
A good Brexit trade deal could be jeopardised by Angela Merkel as she will try to avoid the UK is an example for other EEA member states, said Mij Rahman.
In an interview with Bloomberg, the director for Europe at Eurasia Group said that “Germany is going to be very very tough” in the next phase of the Brexit negotiations.
He said: “I’m a little negative about the outlook for phase two. I think Germany is going to be very very tough and I think that’s driven by their concern that any deal that is offered to the UK will immediately have an effect on EEA members because they’ll consider their agreement in light of what the UK is being offered.
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“As well as eurosceptic parties that are going to look at the kind of access that the UK can achieve while controlling the free movement of labour.
“So I do think Merkel, in particular, is minded to draw a line. She needs to prevent the UK being an unhelpful case medium to long-term for the Union.
“The phase one deal in my mind is totally contingent on how ambitious the phase two agreement will be.”
I think Germany is going to be very very tough
He added: “I think when the Tory right sees how bear bone the trade agreement on offer is going to be and the fact that it won’t be legal text and it will essentially be a political commitment that won’t be binding once the UK is a third country, in my mind that creates a set of risks to the Brexit process in the second half of the year.”
The second phase of the negotiations is due to start soon as Prime Minister Theresa May will debate with Brussels over future trade arrangements.
At the end of the first phase of the negotiations, the drafted withdrawal bill suggested the UK might not leave the single market and the Customs Union.
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A final deal is believed to be reached by the end of 2018. That will give the UK parliament until March 2019 to vote on whether to accept the deal or not.
EU Chief negotiator Jean-Claude Juncker said he is sceptical talks on trade will be finalised before March 2019.
Mr Juncker went even further by saying it will not even be concluded after the two-year transitional period starting from March 2019.
