President Trump has routinely celebrated, and taken credit for, the stock market’s record-setting climb during his first year in office.
Optimism around the new tax code, as well as a relaxed regulatory climate, has helped drive the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index’s 30 percent rise since Mr. Trump took office. But that performance falls short of the market’s gains during the first years of the presidencies of Barack Obama and the elder George Bush.
The stock market rose higher in two previous terms.
+40
%
S.& P. 500-Stock Index
Obama
Percentage change in the closes
of the first 243 trading days
of each president’s term,
compared with President
Trump’s, through
Thursday.
+33.7%
+30
H.W. Bush
+22.8%
+20
Trump
+21.2%
+10
Clinton
+7.3%
Reagan
–10
–8.7%
W. Bush
–14.7%
–20
–30
1
50
100
150
200
243
Number of trading days
+40
%
S.& P. 500-Stock Index
Obama
Percentage changes in the closes
of the first 243 trading days of each
president’s term, compared with
President Trump’s, through Friday.
+33.7%
+30
H.W. Bush
+22.8%
+20
Trump
+21.2%
+10
Clinton
+7.3%
0
Reagan
–10
–8.7%
W. Bush
–14.7%
–20
–30
1
50
100
150
200
243
Number of trading days
+40
%
S.& P. 500-Stock Index
Obama
+33.7%
Percentage changes in the closes of the first 243 trading days of each
president’s term, compared with President Trump’s, through Friday.
+30
H.W. Bush
+22.8%
+20
Trump
+21.2%
+10
Clinton
+7.3%
0
Reagan
–8.7%
–10
W. Bush
–14.7%
–20
–30
1
Number of trading days
50
100
150
200
243
+40
%
S.& P. 500-Stock Index
Obama
+33.7%
Percentage change in the closes of the
first 243 trading days of each president’s
term, compared with President
Trump’s, through Friday.
+30
H.W. Bush
+22.8%
+20
Trump
+21.2%
+10
Clinton
+7.3%
Reagan
–10
–8.7%
W. Bush
–14.7%
–20
–30
1
50
100
150
200
243
Number of trading days
Mr. Obama took office amid the financial crisis. Stocks were in a freefall and hit bottom nearly two months after his inauguration. Equities then rebounded and finished Mr. Obama’s first year up more than 30 percent.
Mr. Trump, by contrast, became president during one of the longest sustained bull markets in history, and stocks have continued to set record highs during his tenure.
This run is a continuation of one of the longest bull markets ever.
3,000
S.& P. 500-stock index
Scale is logarithmic
to show comparable
percentage changes
2,000
1,000
800
H.W. Bush
W. Bush
Trump
600
Reagan
Clinton
Obama
400
200
1981
1989
1993
2001
2009
2017
3,000
2,000
S.& P. 500-stock index
Scale is logarithmic to show
comparable percentage changes
1,000
800
600
Reagan
H.W. Bush
Clinton
W. Bush
Obama
Trump
400
200
1981
1989
1993
2001
2009
2017
3,000
2,000
S.& P. 500-stock index
Scale is logarithmic to show
comparable percentage changes
1,000
800
600
Reagan
H.W. Bush
Clinton
W. Bush
Obama
Trump
400
200
1981
1989
1993
2001
2009
2017
3,000
S.& P. 500-stock index
Scale is logarithmic to show
comparable percentage changes
2,000
1,000
800
600
Reagan
H.W. Bush
Clinton
W. Bush
Obama
Trump
400
200
1981
1989
1993
2001
2009
2017
At more than 3,200 days and counting, this nearly nine-year bull market run trails only the boom from 1987 to 2000. And the momentum suggests the market could climb further upward.
It’s unusual for any president to take credit (or blame) for stock market performance, but in Twitter posts and speeches, Mr. Trump has continually trumpeted the success of the market as a direct result of his actions.
As with any time the stock market shoots upward, the inevitable question is when it will fall, and now, what Mr. Trump will say if it does.