Playoff bye week familiar territory for Patriots

Friday
Jan 5, 2018 at 6:13 PM

FOXBORO — By this point, sitting back and pondering who they'll be playing in the divisional playoffs is a Patriots' wildcard weekend tradition. New England extended its record by earning a first-round bye for the eighth consecutive season, meaning there are less than a handful of Patriots who know what it's like to actually play the first weekend of the postseason.


And so the Pats are accustomed to a week concentrated on self-scouting and individual improvement. While [...]

Tim Britton

FOXBORO — By this point, sitting back and pondering who they'll be playing in the divisional playoffs is a Patriots' wildcard weekend tradition. New England extended its record by earning a first-round bye for the eighth consecutive season, meaning there are less than a handful of Patriots who know what it's like to actually play the first weekend of the postseason.

And so the Pats are accustomed to a week concentrated on self-scouting and individual improvement. While dodging the snowflakes this week at Gillette Stadium, they talked about getting better each day, working on technique and not worrying about who's next on the schedule.

That’s what we're here for.

Since the NFL reseeds after the first round, there are three possible second-round opponents for New England, and the Pats won't know who they're welcoming to Foxboro until after Sunday's game between the Jaguars and Bills.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

For a time this season Kansas City appeared to be the class of the AFC. Coming off consecutive playoff appearances, the Chiefs were the NFL's last unbeaten team — though only through Week 5 — and they had the conference's most impressive win: a Week 1 stomping at Gillette Stadium.

But Chiefs All-Pro safety Eric Berry was lost for the season with a torn Achilles in the game, and Kansas City's 5-0 start was undone by a 1-6 stretch that included losses to the lowly Giants and Jets. The Chiefs rebounded to win their last four to lay claim to the AFC West for the second straight season.

Quarterback Alex Smith, in perhaps his final season in Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes in waiting, had his best statistical year yet, throwing for more than 4,000 yards for the first time in his career. Smith did that while maintaining his typically strong touchdown-to-interception ratio at better than 5-to-1. He has a trio of dangerous weapons alongside him in speedster Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce and Pro Bowl rookie Kareem Hunt — the Pats remember him from Week 1.

Kansas City's defense, however, wasn't as solid as usual: The Chiefs ranked in the bottom third in the NFL in both rush and pass defense, and the 21.2 points per game they allowed were their most since a 2-14 season in 2012.

Here's the thing, though: Teams that beat the Patriots in the regular season often repeat the achievement in the postseason. The last four times New England has had a playoff rematch with a team it lost to in the regular season, it's lost that one, too. That includes AFC Championship Game losses to Denver in 2015 and Baltimore in 2012, a Super Bowl loss to the Giants in 2011 and a divisional playoff loss to the Jets in 2010 — the last time the Pats didn't reach the AFC title game.

And while it happened a long time ago, Kansas City would have the rare confidence of entering Gillette Stadium knowing it has won there before. The Chiefs' Week 1 win in Foxboro was the first time an AFC team had beaten Tom Brady at Gillette in the regular season since 2006. He hadn't lost at all at home to an AFC team since that second-round beating by the Jets seven years ago.

5. Tennessee Titans (9-7)

While the experience of the Chiefs in the postseason and against New England could frighten Patriots fans a little, there's almost nothing that suggests the Titans are ready to win a road playoff game at Gillette Stadium.

Tennessee hasn't been to the playoffs since 2008 and hasn't won a postseason game since Steve McNair was leading them past Anthony Wright and the Ravens in 2003. The Titans quarterback has never taken a postseason snap, their coach has never coached a postseason game. (The last time Mike Mularkey called plays in a postseason game, his Falcons scored two points in a wildcard loss to the Giants in 2011.)

The potent rushing attack the Titans possessed last season diminished this year, with DeMarco Murray averaging fewer than four yards per carry and Marcus Mariota sticking in the pocket more routinely. And while Tennessee remains a staunch defense against the run, it struggled through the air, allowing 250 or more yards passing in nine games.

The Titans were just 3-5 on the road this season, with only one of those losses to a playoff team. Tennessee came the closest to losing to Cleveland this season, requiring overtime for a Week 7 win over the Browns.

And in lieu of our point about playoff rematches not benefiting the Patriots, we should note under Bill Belichick, New England has never lost a playoff game to a team it didn't play in that regular season. The Pats are 13-0 in such games.

6. Buffalo Bills (9-7)

So about a lack of playoff experience …

Thanks to a Bengals comeback in Baltimore, the Bills ended the longest playoff drought in North American sports, earning their first playoff appearance since 1999. (That team's controversial QB benching came in the wildcard round instead of in November.)

Everyone's aware of Brady's domination of Buffalo. He's 28-3 against them as a starter, with one of the losses coming in a Week 17 game that he didn't finish. Contests between the two teams seem to follow a script like the lone from Christmas Eve: The Bills keep it close for a while before the Pats run away in the second half.

The Bills could be the kind of team that would scare New England, if you put aside the history and assume a healthy LeSean McCoy for the playoffs. Buffalo is one of the better running teams in the league; the Pats were second-to-last in yards per carry as a defense. The Bills don't turn the ball over much, and one can envision them running effectively to control the clock and limit possessions.

Of course, McCoy isn't healthy at the moment, and that approach would still require that Buffalo pay off its long drives with touchdowns — something it hasn't done consistently this season. The Bills' minus-57 point differential is the worst for a playoff team since Tim Tebow's Broncos in 2011 — a team the Pats dismantled in the second round.

Friday
Jan 5, 2018 at 6:13 PM

FOXBORO — By this point, sitting back and pondering who they'll be playing in the divisional playoffs is a Patriots' wildcard weekend tradition. New England extended its record by earning a first-round bye for the eighth consecutive season, meaning there are less than a handful of Patriots who know what it's like to actually play the first weekend of the postseason.


And so the Pats are accustomed to a week concentrated on self-scouting and individual improvement. While [...]

Tim Britton

FOXBORO — By this point, sitting back and pondering who they'll be playing in the divisional playoffs is a Patriots' wildcard weekend tradition. New England extended its record by earning a first-round bye for the eighth consecutive season, meaning there are less than a handful of Patriots who know what it's like to actually play the first weekend of the postseason.

And so the Pats are accustomed to a week concentrated on self-scouting and individual improvement. While dodging the snowflakes this week at Gillette Stadium, they talked about getting better each day, working on technique and not worrying about who's next on the schedule.

That’s what we're here for.

Since the NFL reseeds after the first round, there are three possible second-round opponents for New England, and the Pats won't know who they're welcoming to Foxboro until after Sunday's game between the Jaguars and Bills.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

For a time this season Kansas City appeared to be the class of the AFC. Coming off consecutive playoff appearances, the Chiefs were the NFL's last unbeaten team — though only through Week 5 — and they had the conference's most impressive win: a Week 1 stomping at Gillette Stadium.

But Chiefs All-Pro safety Eric Berry was lost for the season with a torn Achilles in the game, and Kansas City's 5-0 start was undone by a 1-6 stretch that included losses to the lowly Giants and Jets. The Chiefs rebounded to win their last four to lay claim to the AFC West for the second straight season.

Quarterback Alex Smith, in perhaps his final season in Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes in waiting, had his best statistical year yet, throwing for more than 4,000 yards for the first time in his career. Smith did that while maintaining his typically strong touchdown-to-interception ratio at better than 5-to-1. He has a trio of dangerous weapons alongside him in speedster Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce and Pro Bowl rookie Kareem Hunt — the Pats remember him from Week 1.

Kansas City's defense, however, wasn't as solid as usual: The Chiefs ranked in the bottom third in the NFL in both rush and pass defense, and the 21.2 points per game they allowed were their most since a 2-14 season in 2012.

Here's the thing, though: Teams that beat the Patriots in the regular season often repeat the achievement in the postseason. The last four times New England has had a playoff rematch with a team it lost to in the regular season, it's lost that one, too. That includes AFC Championship Game losses to Denver in 2015 and Baltimore in 2012, a Super Bowl loss to the Giants in 2011 and a divisional playoff loss to the Jets in 2010 — the last time the Pats didn't reach the AFC title game.

And while it happened a long time ago, Kansas City would have the rare confidence of entering Gillette Stadium knowing it has won there before. The Chiefs' Week 1 win in Foxboro was the first time an AFC team had beaten Tom Brady at Gillette in the regular season since 2006. He hadn't lost at all at home to an AFC team since that second-round beating by the Jets seven years ago.

5. Tennessee Titans (9-7)

While the experience of the Chiefs in the postseason and against New England could frighten Patriots fans a little, there's almost nothing that suggests the Titans are ready to win a road playoff game at Gillette Stadium.

Tennessee hasn't been to the playoffs since 2008 and hasn't won a postseason game since Steve McNair was leading them past Anthony Wright and the Ravens in 2003. The Titans quarterback has never taken a postseason snap, their coach has never coached a postseason game. (The last time Mike Mularkey called plays in a postseason game, his Falcons scored two points in a wildcard loss to the Giants in 2011.)

The potent rushing attack the Titans possessed last season diminished this year, with DeMarco Murray averaging fewer than four yards per carry and Marcus Mariota sticking in the pocket more routinely. And while Tennessee remains a staunch defense against the run, it struggled through the air, allowing 250 or more yards passing in nine games.

The Titans were just 3-5 on the road this season, with only one of those losses to a playoff team. Tennessee came the closest to losing to Cleveland this season, requiring overtime for a Week 7 win over the Browns.

And in lieu of our point about playoff rematches not benefiting the Patriots, we should note under Bill Belichick, New England has never lost a playoff game to a team it didn't play in that regular season. The Pats are 13-0 in such games.

6. Buffalo Bills (9-7)

So about a lack of playoff experience …

Thanks to a Bengals comeback in Baltimore, the Bills ended the longest playoff drought in North American sports, earning their first playoff appearance since 1999. (That team's controversial QB benching came in the wildcard round instead of in November.)

Everyone's aware of Brady's domination of Buffalo. He's 28-3 against them as a starter, with one of the losses coming in a Week 17 game that he didn't finish. Contests between the two teams seem to follow a script like the lone from Christmas Eve: The Bills keep it close for a while before the Pats run away in the second half.

The Bills could be the kind of team that would scare New England, if you put aside the history and assume a healthy LeSean McCoy for the playoffs. Buffalo is one of the better running teams in the league; the Pats were second-to-last in yards per carry as a defense. The Bills don't turn the ball over much, and one can envision them running effectively to control the clock and limit possessions.

Of course, McCoy isn't healthy at the moment, and that approach would still require that Buffalo pay off its long drives with touchdowns — something it hasn't done consistently this season. The Bills' minus-57 point differential is the worst for a playoff team since Tim Tebow's Broncos in 2011 — a team the Pats dismantled in the second round.

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