After nine years of collaborative run with the BJD, the BJP insisted on a bigger seat sharing for the 2009 elections. The BJD knew well the saffron party had lost mass credibility; so, it ended its coalition with the BJP. The 2009 poll verdict was shockingly galling for the BJP. Ever since then, the BJP has been making all possible efforts in to defame Naveen Patnaik and capture Odisha. But they should be aware that Naveen’s star power is uniquely immeasurable.
The BJP was excited when Payri Mohapatra was dismissed from the BJD in 2012 as pollsters had forecast that the BJD without Pyari would crumble like a house of cards. But in 2014, when the BJD was not even expected to hit even ninety seats, Naveen made history with 217. BJP super brains like Modi and Amit Shah had materialised in the national arena by then but failed to make any impact in Odisha despite some kind of a ‘Modi wave sweeping some parts of India. The people of Odisha conclusively discarded the BJP. In Naveen’s coalition Cabinet until 2009, the BJP elements were known to have messed up every portfolio under command, mainly revenue and urban development. The Urban Development Ministers went overboard to dole out land to undeserving creatures under the discretionary quota.
Even some High Court judges were known to have managed land from the successive BJP Ministers for quid pro quo. None ever looked up the Constitution enshrining the ‘doctrine of public trust' that prevents the executive from grabbing any discretionary power to dole out scarce natural resources including land.
People-friendly revenue reforms were virtually nil during the period. Interestingly, some BJD rebels who joined the saffron bandwagon got dismissed forever.
Often described as a ‘cow-belt party', the BJP is mad to shrug off the tag and turn truly pan-Indian. It managed to get Assam recently only due to the Congress misrule there. The SP in UP too fell due to horrific anti-incumbency factors. But Odisha is still in awe of Naveen for the voters strongly believe no other leader would be as clean and simple.
The enigmatic Odisha Chief Minister's uninterrupted winning streak in defiance of anti-incumbency has baffled all opponents. His appeal and charisma, both among the rural poor and the growing middleclass, have remained intact.
Gujarat has a lot to learn from Odisha which has developed faster only because the Naveen administration has ensured that benefits accrue to the poorest.
In Gujarat, growth has bypassed the real poor. Between 2009 and 2012, Odisha managed to reduce rural poverty by 21.5% while Gujarat achieved only 5.1%. Quite a few erstwhile poor States are doing better than Gujarat. They are brighter on other macro-economic parameters too by ‘walking the talk' on the inclusion factor. Odisha is performing pretty well though opponents keep screaming ‘foul' just to survive in public memory.
The innovations in public service delivery introduced by the Naveen administration have been exemplary. Odisha is a rare State with least leakage in the hitherto-notorious public distribution system (PDS). Gujarat has degenerated from being exemplary in 1993-94 to a ‘highest leakage' State by 2011-12. While redistributive politics is a major factor in poverty reduction, excelling in making ‘pro-poor' schemes is critically important. A strong 'proxy' as well as a ‘determinant' of poverty, particularly in rural regions, is the ‘wage of casual workers'.
A methodical analysis of wage data from multiple sources indicates how and why poverty reduction in Odisha is impressively high. Between 2004-05 and 2011-12, wage rate growth in Odisha was 7.8% a year. Gujarat has been a laggard: wages grew by only 3.3% pushing it to the bottom among the so-called forward States. The latest data showing a similar verdict is with the Labour Bureau.
Between 2007-08 and 2012-13, the national farm wages of male workers grew at an average of 6.3% per annum at real terms. The same in Odisha grew at 8.7% while in Bihar the figure was 8.4%. Shockingly, it increased by only 3.3% in Gujarat: the second lowest in the country. In 2000-01, agricultural wages in Gujarat were 21% higher than that Bihar.
By 2012-13, farm wages in Bihar hit 11% higher than Gujarat. Odisha is even higher. The analysis of wage data is not just a good metric for the poverty reduction story but also an important indicator of who gained from growth of output and productivity. The growth rate of wages for casual workers in Odisha is twice higher than Gujarat’s. Odisha has also ensured benefits accrue to the poorest. In Gujarat, growth has bypassed the poor and the marginalised, most benefits going to the favoured few: the wealthy business class.
The NDA government headed by Vajpayee was a very humble and accommodating one. Vajpayee never tried to bring heat on opposition whatever be the issue.
He conducted himself as a Prime Minister to all regions irrespective of the BJP’s political or ideological entity. He never behaved like a loudmouth party spokesperson. Vajpayee did splendid work but unfortunately failed miserably in converting that into votes mainly because his flamboyant lieutenants displayed power and wealth to irk people and lose their basic trust.
Naveen was ushered in to lead a newly-formed BJD in 1997 by some frontline Biju followers soon after the legendary statesman's demise. The founders including Dilip Ray and Bijay Mohapatra had plans for putting up Naveen as the face and run the party from behind as masters. Dilip Ray is the biggest beneficiary of Bijubabu’s unconditional trust. He became a Minister in the State and at the Centre only because of Biju's magnanimity. In return, Ray looked after him in Delhi as the latter’s health was failing. Bijay was Bijubabu’s Man Friday. He was a bit spoilt and notorious. He imagined he was the principal successor of Biju. Dilip had shown himself as the shadow of the colossal figure until the body was consigned to flames at the Swargadwar. Prem was a mere ‘moving picture of the silent era'. Naveen was just not known. As times rolled by, Naveen was keen that good things happen to the backward State.
He was rabidly hateful of wicked, machinating political crooks. What the crooked BJD founders could never figure out was that Naveen would not dance to their tunes. What people must know today is that Pyari removed Bijay to settle personal scores; and the BJP bosses were keen that Dilip was dropped for some personal blemish not known clearly.
Naveen is just not likely to suffer even once the anti-incumbency disgust of the masses. His popularity has witnessed a steady ascending trend unlike that of Modi, who has only enjoyed a set of electoral wins in a glaringly-descending order. After the recent Gujarat poor show, though in power still, the Modi camp’s roars have dwindled to whimpers. The BJP is also likely to vacate Rajasthan and Karnataka in 2019 and fail to dislodge Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal. The saffron brigade can’t simply shake Naveen, let alone beat him in any battle. That’s a ground reality which even the bitterest Naveen critics admit.
The Modi magic has gone only because of loud talk and flamboyant lifestyle. Naveen has won hearts permanently by looking and doing simple. He does not even react to foul-tongued critics, never fumes or frets against known enemies. Local critics found him guilty of ‘Odia hate’. Lately, he has established everything that can make the great language flourish with dignity.
Some achievements witnessed across the seventeen Naveen years: In January, Odisha topped the national list in spreading oil and gas conservation awareness. February: recognised for sharpest decline in IMR. March: bagged award for outstanding urban governance. In April, Bhubaneswar was declared the only winner of Pierre L'Enfant International Planning Excellence Award. May: brought the Best Heritage Destination award. June: got ‘Best performing State' in Skill Development. July was historic for the 22nd Asian Athletic Athletics Championship after BJP-driven Jharkhand cried aloud, “Can’t do it”; someone, please help”. August brought Naveen the best administrator award from ‘Outlook'. September: the ‘top State Forest Right Act implementation' recognition.
October was unforgettable because Odisha remained among the top three investment-attracting States. In November, Odisha was at the top spot in rural road construction with 42,000 km laid out under the PMGSY. December: Odisha was declared the ‘Champion in exports growth' apart from the magnificent World Hockey Tournament in Bhubaneswar. Gujarat masters should take lessons on inclusive growth from Odisha counterparts.
Lastly, the people provoked by Modi to ‘see and sniff poverty' only in Odisha are heard cursing the blatant falsehood.
(The writer is a core member of Transparency International, Odisha)