The Washington Capitals rank 18th in the league in even-strength scoring chances produced per 60 minutes and 21st for high-danger chances per 60 minutes. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
The Washington Capitals won again Tuesday, a 5-4 victory over the Carolina Hurricanes that included two goals — one in overtime — from superstar winger Alex Ovechkin.
It was Washington’s first win in the new year but also its 11th in 15 games, giving the Capitals sole possession of first place in the Metropolitan Division with 53 points, a surprise considering all the turnover this team had in the offseason.
“We have a great core here and a lot of great players,” forward Jay Beagle said Tuesday during an interview with The Sports Junkies on 106.7 The Fan. “So, every year, we should be contenders to win the Presidents’ Trophy and then go in the playoffs and be contenders to win the Stanley Cup. That’s the way we look at it. That’s our mind-set.”
[Jay Beagle on the first-place Caps: ‘It’s nice to be able to kind of fly under the radar’]
The Capitals might look like contenders on paper, but the underlying metrics suggest another postseason flame out more likely than a breakthrough.
For the first time since Barry Trotz took over as head coach, the Capitals are giving up more even-strength shot attempts than they produce, even after you adjust for score effects. The team will agree they don’t take many shots, but contend it’s quality, not quantity that matters.
“We’re trying to get our shooting percentage in areas where we can be a little better,” Trotz told the Post’s own Isabelle Khurshudyan. “But yeah, we’re not a shoot-first mentality on our team, and that shows up in some of the analytics.”
Here’s what else shows up in the analytics: Washington is also in the red for even-strength scoring chances, including those from the high-danger areas such as the slot and the crease, and that’s a problem.
| Capitals under Barry Trotz | Shot attempts | Scoring chances |
| 2014-15 | 52% | 52% |
| 2015-16 | 52% | 52% |
| 2016-17 | 53% | 52% |
| 2017-18 | 49% | 47% |
According to NHL statistical site Natural Stat Trick, the Capitals rank 18th in the league in even-strength scoring chances produced per 60 minutes and 21st for high-danger chances per 60 minutes, giving them a significant gap between the goal differential they have compared to the one we would expect, taking into account shot type, angle, distance and whether or not it was a rebound.
For example, Washington has an actual even-strength goal differential of plus-12 in 2017-18, good for ninth in the league this season. Their expected goal differential, however, is minus-14. Only the Buffalo Sabres (10-20-9, 29 points) and Arizona Coyotes (9-27-5, 23 points), two of the league’s worst teams, are worse.
| Team | Actual even-strength goal differential | Expected even-strength goal differential |
| Coyotes (9-27-5, last in Pacific) | -42 | -17 |
| Sabres (10-20-9, last in Atlantic) | -25 | -14 |
| Capitals (25-13-3, first in Metropolitan) | +12 | -14 |
| Ducks (19-14-8, 4th in Pacific) | 12 | -14 |
| Senators (12-17-8, 7th in Atlantic) | -24 | -11 |
And this has been an issue for Washington even during its sparkling run from December through the win against Carolina on Tuesday: the Capitals have an actual goal differential of plus-10 when it should have been minus-7 after accounting for shot quality, a difference of three wins in a calendar month. Take away three wins from Washington and they drop from first to seventh in the division, on par with the struggling Pittsburgh Penguins heading into Wednesday night’s action.
J.P. from Japers’ Rink correctly points out this disparity between the team’s actual goal differential and expected goal differential is not new, but it is magnified in light of the team also giving up the shot attempt advantage. In fact, since 2014-15, there have been 20 teams that have been outshot at even strength while also having an actual goal differential higher than their expected goal differential. Eleven of those teams (55 percent) failed to qualify for the postseason altogether, with the other seven could not make it any further than the second-round of the playoffs.
You don’t need me to tell you the franchise’s history when it comes to playoff disappointments, but if things keep going the way they are, there will likely be one more heartbreak to add to the pile.
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