Rajini arrives, does he have staying power?

Can Rajinikanth shake up the electoral scene in Tamil Nadu as effortlessly as he sets fans' hearts aquiver with his on-screen persona? 

Tamil superstar Rajinikanth's punch line in his hit film Kabaali is“Naan vandthttenuchollu (Tell them I have come.)” On Sunday, wearing a spotless white kurta, Rajnikanth or Thalaivar as he is known to his millions of fans, announced: “My entry into politics is certain,” thus ending a two-decade long suspense.

He is not the first mega star who has chosen to enter politics; there are many others, like MG Ramachandran, JJayalalitha and Captain Vijayakant.  Even former DMK chief ministers CN Annadurai and M Karunanidhi were from the film world. Tamil Nadu, a state driven by personality politics, currently lacks a charismatic leader. The political landscape has changed significantly with Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhiout of the picture, but it's still a tough game. Rajinikanth knows this; he had said recently: “I am hesitant in entering politics, as I am aware of the pitfalls. I am not new to politics. I know its depths. I have been watching politics closely since 1996. If I enter politics I will have to win.”

 The question is, will Rajini be a success in politics? While some believe that he will bring in a revolution and become the Chief Minister after the next election, there are others who think that he might burn his fingers the same way other superstars like Sivaji Ganesan, Amitabh Bachchan, and Chiranjeevi have. 1996 would have been the right time for him to form a party and sweep the polls to become Chief Minister as he was younger and much healthier then, and would arguably have been able to take on the challenges of politics. At the moment, he is a political novice and is untested. Plus, his age may become a factor going forward.

 It is hard to keep count of the number of times Rajinikanth has “indicated” that he would enter politics. It is perhaps due to the pressure from his fan clubs and also from the BJP, which wants to ride piggyback on his influence, that he announced his decision on Sunday. Secondly, what is his vision? He has not spelt it out so far. He has used a strange phrase - "Jaadhi madham illaadha aanmiga arasiyal (Spiritual politics without communalism or casteism.)” In a State dominated by Dravidian politics, Rajini's over-emphasis on religion and spirituality, both on and off screen, makes one wonder whether he might lean towards the BJP. If not Dravidian ideology, what does he represent? Tamil Nadu is known for its identity politics, with several caste-based parties existing in the State like Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK). Also, the DMK and AIADMK are established parties with committed cadres and committed vote banks of about 30 per cent each.

Thirdly and more importantly, Rajini is talking of contesting all 234 seats in the next Assembly poll, thus making it clear that his aim is not the 2019 Lok Sabha poll. Elections are a costly affair, involving millions of rupees spent on electioneering. Does he have the capacity to raise money not only for running his party, but also for the elections and that too against the DMK and the AIADMK which have huge funds? Perhaps the BJP could come to his aid if there is a poll alliance.

Fourthly, what kind of people will join his new party? So far, no credible politician has even hinted at giving him support except another political novice: Superstar Kamal Haasan, who also wants to join politics. He needs a group of efficient and politically savvy people around him. Right now, Rajini has only his fan clubs, and even they lack organization. Cadres have to be raised, offices have to set up, and a million other tasks need to be done. All this will have to be done without any older foundations to bank upon other than his films. He needs good candidates if he is looking to succeed in the elections. He must learn a lesson or two from what happened to the AamAadmi Party (AAP), which was a big electoral success, but did not attract credible faces. 

Fifthly, hardly anything is known about his intellectual capacity and his understanding of crucial social and political problems. No one knows his views on economic and foreign policy. What will be his new narrative to get votes? Sixthly, Rajini has no proven ability for administration. So, on what basis can one expect that he will be able to meet the challenge of governance? He needs to find a good team to bridge this gap like the Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik has done for the past two decades. Rajini has declared “We will resign if we do not deliver on our promises within three years.”

Seventhly and most importantly, while he has mass appeal and an immense crowd pulling capacity, can he convert these into votes? This is the million-dollar question. But despite all these, Rajini might prove to be a success like MGR and Jayalalithaa if Dame Luck smiles at him. After all, he has become a superstar from his humble beginning as a bus conductor in Bengaluru!

(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)