January 01, 2018 03:00 AM
UPDATED 3 MINUTES AGO
Some might recall this feeling as a kid – crouching down real low and looking as far back under the tree as you can, because maybe (surely!) there's one more present still there.
That's Cardinals fans. Already this holiday season they've gleefully unwrapped a Marcell Ozuna, as well as a Luke Gregerson and a Miles Mikolas. (I suppose Mikolas from the Japanese League was that annual curveball gift you open and are a little leery about ... and then you realize it could end up being actually pretty cool.)
But isn't there also a closer somewhere under the tree?
The rapid-paced action of the baseball offseason seemed to be working in concert with the holiday shopping season. But the market has since slowed. So the Cards, as well as many other teams, will enter the new year yearning for more toys for the new season.
I don't believe the Cards are done. They've made tremendous strides – I believe they'll see it through by acquiring, at least, another top-flight relief pitcher. Maybe it'll be free agent Addison Reed, the strike surgeon who allows about as many walks as Randal Grichuk takes. Most fans are by now aware of Alex Colome. The Tampa Bay closer turns 29 on Sunday, and he amassed 84 saves in the past two years. They'd have to trade for him. Or how about Greg Holland? He's enticing to me. The saves gobbler who will likely command a huge salary, as seen by what Colorado paid Wade Davis, another free agent closer.
Colorado is one team that, conspicuously and unabashedly, is behind the wheel on this modern mentality – loading up a bullpen. This winter, the Rockies signed Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee, a bullpen trio that will make combined $30 million next season.
It's kind of a basic concept, but it bears bringing up – all innings count the same. For generations, such a premium has been put on the power starter, the workhorse, the mower-downer who gets you into the late innings. And then a hodgepodge of relievers stamp out the late innings. Of course, relief pitchers are specialists whose skills are maximized in matchups. But why should there be this crazy drop-off of talent level from a starter to a reliever?
Obviously, teams have put such a priority on starting pitchers that their relievers aren't as good comparatively. But why can't you have both – stud starters and stud relievers? Or, more realistically, is it the worst thing to sacrifice investment in your starters to bolster investment in your relievers? Again, all innings count the same. So if the seventh inning counts just as much as the third, why not have a top-flight fellow out there pitching – especially if he's pitching against, say, the 2-3-4 hitters, while the starting pitcher in the third inning faced the 7-8-9 hitters?
Oh, and along with these insights is some data – starters are going shorter than ever before. In previous decades, seemingly each staff had at least one horse pitching 200 or more innings. Last season, only 15 pitchers hit the 200 mark. There were also only 15 in 2016, compared to 28 in 2015 and 34 in 2014. Bullpen specialization plays a major role. As do pitch counts. But really, it comes down to this – smart baseball people are realizing that a starter is most efficient only going through an order twice.
Cards manager Mike Matheny has struggled with this at times, most infamously in "the Michael Wacha game" last season. On Sept. 27, with the playoffs still a possibility, Wacha cruised through the Cubs' order twice. But the Cards didn't have any relievers readying for his third go-around. Again, Wacha was looking good that night. But the numbers also showed that Wacha, like so many other starters, struggled much more during a third time through. With no one warming up, the Cards were slow to replace Wacha, who, sure enough, allowed five runs in that seventh inning.
Oh, and by the way, letting a National League pitcher bat an additional time – just to get him against the top of a lineup one more time – could be counterproductive. You basically waste an at-bat of your own with your pitcher hitting.
I want to believe the Cardinals will have a sharper staff this season, if only because of the addition of pitching coach Mike Maddux. And on paper, assuming Brett Cecil is more consistent, the Cards already have a nice hoard of relievers. Fangraphs.com has the Cards with baseball's 10th-best bullpen as of right now. Tyler Lyons, John Brebbia, Matt Bowman, Gregerson, Cecil and others will be in the mix. Alex Reyes is the ultimate wild card. I'm ecstatic about seeing him this season, optimistically projecting him to pitch similarly well as he did in 2016. But how many of his pitches will come as a reliever?
And there are numerous scintillating prospects who could make their Cardinals debuts out of the 2018 bullpen, from names you know, such as Dakota Hudson and Jordan Hicks, to names you need to know, such as Ryan Helsley.
But the Cards need a closer. Or, if you will, another reliable reliever who can efficiently pitch a full inning often.
Shopping never stops in the mall that is baseball.