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This time it feels different.
Yours truly has been a wet blanket when it comes to Jon Gruden rumors. I dispelled the “Grumors” in 2012 when the Raiders ultimately hired Dennis Allen. I did it again in 2014 when they brought in Jack Del Rio.
But Sunday, when Del Rio announced he’d been fired, the impossible suddenly seemed inevitable.
Jon Gruden is coming back.
When I talked to Gruden briefly Saturday night, I got the answer I expected — which was no answer at all. That wasn’t unusual, because Gruden never minds having his name associated with new jobs and in fact could have returned to coaching any time he wanted in the last six years.
The difference was the same people who told me previous Grumors were nonsense were onboard with the possibility this time. With owner Davis moving so quickly to fire Del Rio, it would be a major surprise if Gruden wasn’t the subject of his second introductory press conference, with the first one coming 19 years ago.
The reasons for Mark Davis to bring in Gruden are easily identified.
Davis loves Gruden and believes his father should have never traded him to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the aftermath of the “Tuck Rule” game following the 2001 season.
Gruden never really wanted to leave in the first place. He got low-balled on a new contract but was planning coaching his last season with the possibility of working something out for the future.
Davis is livid about the way the Raiders slumped to 6-10 this season after going 12-4 a year ago. Losing drives him crazy, but Davis absolutely hates to be embarrassed by sloppy and non-competitive play.
The sloppiness continued Sunday in a 30-10 loss to the the Chargers, and the Raiders were essentially no-shows in games against Washington, Buffalo, New England and in the second game against the Chiefs. A 26-10 loss in Kansas City when the Raiders had control of their own destiny was the beginning of the end for Del Rio.
That’s a quarter of the season where the Raiders never gave themselves a chance.
Davis liked interim coach Tony Sparano in 2014, but simply couldn’t stomach an 0-8 road record punctuated by a 52-0 loss in St. Louis to the Rams. Allen met his demise earlier that year when the Raiders laid an egg on an international stage in London against the Dolphins.
Until this season, the Raiders under Del Rio, following a blowout loss in his first game, were in every game they played into the fourth quarter.
Even at that, dumping Del Rio was obviously never the plan given that he received an extension going into the season and would be due as much as $15 million over the next three years.
The price for Gruden will be steep. He’ll get a lot more than Del Rio’s reported $5 million per year, with ESPN reporting the possibility of an ownership stake. That detail may take some time, as such a move would have to be vetted by the NFL finance committee and ultimately be approved by a three-quarters vote of ownership.
But it seems unlikely Davis would make the move with Del Rio if he weren’t sure he had Gruden.
Where Davis would make back his money in theory would be keeping fans in the seats in Oakland for the next two years and then selling expensive personal seat licenses, sponsorships and suites in a new stadium in Las Vegas.
If it makes sense for Davis, then why does it finally make sense for Gruden?
It’s time.
Rich Gannon, Gruden’s quarterback from 1998-2001, has maintained a close relationship with his former coach and said in his role as a CBS analyst Sunday the plan was always to return to coaching.
“He’s always told me, I’m going to come back and do this at some point,” Gannon said. “He loves coaching, it’s in his blood and I think he’s going to come back and do it at some point, whether it’s with the Raiders or not, we’ll just have to wait and see.”
As for ESPN, the network is having some financial issues, president John Skipper left abruptly and those close to Gruden believe he’s not enamored with broadcast partner Sean McDonough, preferring the departed Mike Tirico.
Gruden never gave the Raiders a second thought in 2012 and 2014 because he has little interest in a rebuilding project. He’d prefer to hit the ground running, and the roster is in much better shape even with the struggles in 2016.
Finally, for as much as Derek Carr struggled this season, he is still a potential franchise quarterback in place who Gruden believes he can win with. Repairing Carr, based on his five-year, $125 million contract, is they most important issue with the franchise.
Gannon, whose name was floated by NFL.com as a possibility to join Gruden’s staff, told 95.7 he believes quality coaching of the position is lacking.
“I would tell you this — as I go around and do these games . . . I think quarterbacks aren’t being coached properly,” Gannon said. “It is a real problem in our league right now. And nobody coaches the position any better than Jon Gruden.”
Barring a change of heart on Gruden’s part, we’re about to find out
