Writethru Sunday AM following Saturday/Friday updates: Disney has called the four-day for Star Wars: The Last Jedi at $65.6M which would put the Rian Johnson pic in second place behind Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle at $67M. However, the industry believes at this point in time that No. 1 will belong to Last Jedi for the third weekend in a row with $69M. Meanwhile, both Sony and industry projections agree that Jumanji will reach $67M.
The final weekend of the year at $195M in total ticket sales is bringing 2017 to a close with $11.12 billion at the domestic box office according to ComScore. Earlier this morning we broke down what went right and sideways for the majors in a Disney-led year. All in, 2017 reps the third-best domestic year ever and the third time in a row that the U.S./Canada ticket sales have clicked past the lofty mark of $11 billion. The year is 2.3% down from last year’s all-time record of $11.4 billion.
The three-day New Year’s weekend of $195M is +9.5% over the Christmas weekend which was slowed by Christmas Eve falling on Sunday. The 3-day weekend is also +4.6% over the same period a year ago. Calculations show that the holiday period of Dec. 15-31 (ever since Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened) grossed $1.07 billion, +6% over the same period last year. Yes, moviegoing is quite alive.
This box office rally is going to continue into next weekend, and just when you thought that the millennials had seen it all, Blumhouse/Universal will release Insidious: The Last Key, the fourth in the horror franchise. Don’t count horror out: In 2012, Paramount pulled off a $33.7M opening for The Devil Inside off an F CinemaScore during the first weekend in the year. Being PG-13, Insidious: The Last Key looks to pull in largely teen girls.
Yesterday, Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi beat Beauty and the Beast as the highest-grossing title of 2017 with $517.1M. The industry expects Episode VIII to reach $533.7M by the end of tomorrow.
Similar to last weekend, all audience titles continue to prove that they’re the ones to be reckoned with. A number of them are seeing huge spikes in the high double digits over three-days, with a special shout-out to Fox/Chernin Entertainment’s The Greatest Showman, which was sluggish out of the gate, but spiked 73% over three-days with $15.2M. Audience word-of-mouth, especially among older women, is the big factor here, as critics have snubbed it. Universal’s Pitch Perfect 3 is holding in there with an 11% dip over three days.
R-rated titles in wide release are quite challenged in the current marketplace, with Sony/TriStar’s Getty kidnapping thriller All the Money in the World only filing $7.2M over four-days. Award wins out of the Golden Globes and possible Oscar noms are truly the only thing that could get this title’s ticket sales juiced, with critics mostly high at 77% certified fresh, but not over the moon. Before the Kevin Spacey sexual allegations and the early December re-shoots with Christopher Plummer (who is winning high praise for his portrayal as J. Paul Getty), Sony originally planned to tee off this Ridley Scott-directed movie in a bigger way, starting with a November AFI Film Festival premiere and an earlier December theatrical release. This riveting movie is in the unfortunate position of trying to play catch-up. On the other hand, there’s no better time than the present momentous holiday playing field to create buzz. Also, Sony has bragging rights with the second best title at the holiday B.O, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which will see a running stateside cume of $186.3M by end of Monday.
STX has Molly’s Game in limited release at 271 theaters for the purpose of generating buzz before awards season kicks in. The pic is expected to gross $6M in its first eight days by the end of New Year’s Day. At that point, the film will have already outstripped Jessica Chastain’s previous fare, including The Zookeeper’s Wife ($4.7M at 541 venues in its first week), plus the entire domestic ticket sales of Miss Sloane ($3.5M) and A Most Violent Year ($5.7M). Chastain is nominated in the best actress drama category at the Golden Globes, and the pic’s director Aaron Sorkin is nominated in the best screenplay category. CinemaScore for Molly’s Game is an A- with an 80% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes score.
Critically acclaimed and award-worthy titles in limited release, DreamWorks/Fox/Participant’s The Post and Focus Features’ Phantom Thread, continue to post great screen averages, respectively $59,9K and $54,8K over three-days.
Studio and industry reported estimates for the weekend of Dec. 29-31, 2017:
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 4,232 theaters (0)/ $19M Fri/$19.9M Sat/ $13.4M Sun/ $13.1M Mon/ 3-day: $52.4M (-26%)/4-day: $65.6M/Industry 4-day: $69M/Industry total:$533.7M/ Wk 3
- Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 3,765 theaters (0) / $17.8M Fri/$19.5M Sat/$13.2M Sun/$16.5M Mon/3-day: $50.5M (+39%)/4-day: $67M/Industry total: $67.1M/ Total:$186.3M/Industry total: $186.4M/ Wk 2
- Pitch Perfect 3 (UNI), 3,468 theaters (+21)/ $6.6M Fri/$6.6M Sat/ $4.5M Sun/$5M Mon/ 3-day: $17.7M (-11%)/4-day: $22.7M/Total: $69.2M/ Wk 2
- The Greatest Showman (FOX), 3,316 theaters (+310) / $5.3M Fri /$5.7M Sat/ $4.2M Sun/ $5.1M Mon/3-day: $15.2M (+73%)/4-day $20.3M/Total: $53.8M/Wk 2
- Ferdinand (FOX), 3,337 theaters (-293) / $4.5M Fri /$4.1M Sat/$3.05M Sun/ $3.45M Mon/3-day: $11.65M (+59%)/4-day: $15.1M/Total: $57.3M/ Wk 3
- Coco(DIS), 2,104 theaters (-7) / $2.8M Fri/$2.7M Sat/$964K Sun/ $2.1M Mon/3-day: $6.5M (+22%)/4-day: $8.7M/Total: $181.1M / Wk 6
- Darkest Hour (FOC), 943 theaters (+137)/ $1.7M Fri /$1.9M Sat/$1.8M Sun/$1.9M Mon/3-day: $5.2M (+36%)/ 4-day: $7.1M/ Total: $19.8M/ Wk 6
- Downsizing (PAR), 2,664 theaters (-4)/ $1.6M Fri /$1.8M Sat/ $1.2M Sun/ $1.4M Mon/3-day: $4.6M (-8%)/ 4-day: $6M/Total: $18.4M/ Wk 2
- All The Money in the World (Sony) 2,074 theaters (+6)/ $1.77M Fri/$2.1M Sat/ $1.6M Sun/ $1.75M Mon/3-day: $5.45M/4-day: $7.2M/Total: $14.4M/Wk 1
- /11 The Shape of Water (FSL), 756 theaters (+26) / $1.1m Fri /$1.3M Sat/ Sun/ Mon/3-day: $3.49M (+16%)/4-day: $4.8M/Total: $17M/Wk 5
Father Figures (ALC/WB), 2,902 theaters (0)/ $1.2M Fri /$1.5M Sat/ $975K Sun/$1.1M Mon/3-day: $3.7M (+13%)/ 4-day: $4.8M/ Total: $13.8M/ Wk 2
12. Wonder (LG), 1,193 theaters (+63) / $1.2M Fri /$1.1M Sat/ $825K Sun/$1M Mon/3-day: $3.25M (+63%)/4-day: $4.25M /Total: $122.5M/ Wk 7
13. Molly’s Game (STX) 271 theaters/$740K Fri/$880k Sat/ $710K Sun/ Mon3-day: $2.33m/4-day: $3.11M/Total: $6M/ Wk 1
Notables:
The Post (FOX/DW), 9 theaters (0) / $171K Fri /$202k Sat/$166K Sun/ $226K Mon/3-day: $539K (+4%)/PTA: $59,9K/4-day $765K/Total: $1.97M/Wk 2
Phantom Thread (FOC), 4 theaters (0) / $71K Fri /$82K Sat/ $67K Sun/ $80K Mon.3-day: $220K /PTA: $52,6K/4-day $300K/Total: $611K/Wk 1
Hostiles (ES), 5 theaters (+2) / $11K Fri /$13K Sat/ $12K Sun/$12K Mon/ 3-day: $35,7K (+56%)/PTA: $7,1K/4-day $47,7K/Total: $100K/Wk 2
Friday, midday update: By Sunday, which ends 2017 perfectly on Dec. 31, Disney’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi will become the highest-grossing film of the year with an estimated $519.1M, unseating Disney’s Beauty and the Beast, which rode the top spot for several months with $504M. Beauty and the Beast made its bread in 17 weekends, and Last Jedi will have made it to $500m in approximately 16 days. By the end of New Year’s Day, Last Jedi will be at $536.6M.
While it’s another hard weekend for analysts to project with New Year’s Eve falling on Sunday, it’s certainly bound to be another bountiful one, with The Greatest Showman expected to get to $51.5M by Monday after a slow start out of the gate, and Pitch Perfect 3 short of $70M. Meanwhile, most likely by next weekend, Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will see $200M. There’s plenty of happiness over at the Culver City, CA studio as they passed the $1 billion mark at the domestic B.O., up close to 10% from last year. The last time Sony clicked past $1 billion was in 2014 ($1.2 billion), when they had Amazing Spider-Man 2, 22 Jump Street, and The Equalizer as their top $100M+ grossing titles.
Disney’s three Star Wars movies have reportedly clocked as much global box office at $4.06 billion as what they paid for Lucasfilm back in 2012. However, the studio arguably hasn’t made all of its investment money back yet from the acquisition, despite this recent trio of pics being profitable. Of course, there’s global P&A and ancillary costs for the pics on top of that Lucasfilm acquisition price. Combined, Force Awakens and Rogue One have grossed an estimated $1.1 billion in profit after ancillaries, and Last Jedi should be around $500M after all is said and done. We’ll have more box office updates for you later.
Industry estimates as of midday:
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 4,232 theaters (0)/ $19M Fri/ 3-day: $54.5M /4-day: $72M Total:$536.6M/ Wk 3
- Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 3,765 theaters (0) / $16M Fri/3-day: $46M/4-day: $60M/Total:$179.2M/ Wk 2
- Pitch Perfect 3 (UNI), 3,468 theaters (+21)/ $6.5M Fri/3-day: $18M/4-day: $23M/Total: $69.5M/ Wk 2
- The Greatest Showman (FOX), 3,316 theaters (+310) / $4.5M Fri /3-day: $13.6M/4-day $18M/Total: $51.5M/Wk 2
- Ferdinand (FOX), 3,337 theaters (-293) / $4M Fri /3-day: $10.5M/4-day: $13.7M/Total: $55.8M/ Wk 3