Sugar Bowl preview, Clemson vs. Alabama: Who has the edge?

Paul Myerberg, USA TODAY Sports Published 4:55 p.m. ET Dec. 31, 2017 | Updated 11:40 p.m. ET Dec. 31, 2017

SportsPulse: USA TODAY Sports college football reporters Paul Myerberg and George Schroeder give their take on who will win the Sugar Bowl. USA TODAY Sports

Alabama and Clemson meet in their third College Football Playoff game in as many years, only this time with one more game to play for the winner. The first two were classics, the two national powers trading championships in last-second, dramatic affairs.

This year’s pairing might play out along similar lines. But it does feel different in one respect: Alabama, not Clemson, is the team with something to prove and questions to answer. Such as, can the Crimson Tide handle an offense that has racked up more than 1,000 yards in the past two meetings?

There will be no secrets and no surprises. Alabama is fully aware of the Tigers’ offense, even if stopping the spread system has been tougher to manage. Clemson is very familiar with the Tide’s top-ranked defense. Each team knows what the other brings to the table. More so than individual players or offensive and defensive schemes, the Sugar Bowl may be decided by execution — which team is error-free and which team is not.

“When you look at their team, it's hard to find a lot of weaknesses in terms of what they do and how they do it and the consistency that they do it with,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said of Clemson.

Clemson's keys to victory

Don’t look for Clemson’s passing game to find too much success downfield. But the Tigers and quarterback Kelly Bryant must be able to complete those intermediate throws that move the chains and keep Alabama’s defense on the field. First downs equal tempo, and Clemson needs to play with a strong pace.

Bryant’s running ability might be even more important. Alabama defenders have mentioned how Bryant’s physicality and toughness with the ball in his arms makes him a difficult quarterback to pin down. Look for co-offensive coordinators Jeff Scott and Tony Elliott to make Bryant a huge part of the running game.

Defensively, the unit keyed by coordinator Brent Venables needs to succeed at the point of attack along the interior of the line. It won’t be an easy battle to win. But with Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence running side by side, it’s a matchup the Tigers can take more chances than not and force Alabama’s passing game to take over.

SportsPulse: USA TODAY's college football reporters Paul Myerberg and George Schroeder give their take on who will win the Rose Bowl. USA TODAY Sports

Alabama's keys to victory

There might be no bigger key than winning the fight on first down. That’s certainly true on both sides of the ball. But it’s of vital importance on offense, where the Tide can’t afford to force quarterback Jalen Hurts into unmanageable down-and-distance scenarios where the offense must attack one of college football’s best defenses.

So one of the Tide’s must-do items is run the ball efficiently on first down. The trickledown effect is huge: Alabama could then open up the entirety of its playbook and keep the Tigers’ aggressive defense off balance rather than playing into Clemson’s hands. Easier said than done, of course.

The defense needs to ignore the numbers — which haven’t been pretty — and focus on the bigger picture. Hold Clemson to field goals, not touchdowns. Bend but don’t break. It’s impossible to imagine a shutout of this Clemson offense, for example, but keeping Bryant in check and limiting any explosive plays would go a long way toward avenging last year’s defeat.

Clemson's X factor

Clemson’s greatest strength is the same regardless of whether the Tigers are playing Alabama or Akron: A degree of depth at the skill positions that is perhaps unmatched across the Football Bowl Subdivision. It’s not just the scheme and the experience that makes Clemson’s offense tick but also the coaching staff’s ability to wheel out nearly two handfuls of options at wide receivers, for example, and several quality options in the backfield. Clemson assistants call this one area where the program has made significant strides during the past three or four seasons.

This depth stresses even Alabama, and there’s no questioning that staff’s ability to recruit and develop players. Remember the most recent meeting? Owned by the Tide for three quarters, the Tigers outscored Alabama 21-7 in the final frame in the 35-31 win. Clemson does this to teams on a regular basis. Yes, even to Alabama.

Alabama's X factor

After losing yet another linebacker — true freshman Dylan Moses, the team leader in tackles in the loss to Auburn — during a recent practice, the health of the Alabama defense is a question that looms over this Sugar Bowl.

“The injuries, they mess up a lot of things,” linebacker Rashaan Evans said this week. “They mess up chemistry, they mess up schemes.”

It does feel strange to question this unit, annually one of the nation’s best, and the Tide do return three crucial pieces to the puzzle at the linebacker position.

Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis return after missing all but two and three games, respectively, during the regular season. Both will bolster a pass rush that has managed just 31 sacks, the program’s fewest in a season since 2014. Alabama should also have a healthy Mack Wilson in the middle, adding depth at a position of need.

Clemson player to watch

When freshman running back Travis Etienne arrived on campus this offseason he immediately impressed Clemson coaches with his running style but hadn’t mastered the art of pass protection, making him a potential liability in the backfield. As his debut season winds to a close, he’s “no longer a freshman,” Dabo Swinney said.

The team leader in rushing at 744 yards, Etienne may not be quite the finished product he’ll become during the next two or three seasons. But he does give Clemson a major homerun threat to team with Bryant’s most punishing, between-the-tackles style. In a matchup where one play could mean the difference, Etienne could be a game-changer.

Alabama player to watch

As the leader of Alabama’s offensive line, redshirt senior Bradley Bozeman will be responsible for making the right calls against a Clemson defensive front brimming with future NFL contributors. In the Tide’s defense, succeeding in the Southeastern Conference entails handling some of the elite linemen in college football.

Clemson’s front is a different animal. The tackle duo of Wilkins and Lawrence is the best in the country. Ends Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant have been able to take advantage of the one-on-one opportunities afforded by offensive lines devoting resources to the interior.

So Bozeman needs to be at his best not just physically but also mentally, making sure that Alabama’s front is always in the right position and never caught off balance by the Tigers’ defensive line and entire front seven.

Score prediction

Alabama will win by finding success on first down and forcing Clemson into turnovers. Clemson will win by avoiding mistakes and limiting the impact of the Crimson Tide’s deep stable of running backs. Maybe it won’t be as high-scoring as the last two meetings, but the Sugar Bowl should feature another nip-and-tuck matchup between the past two national champions.

Clemson 27, Alabama 20

Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst celebrates after winning the Orange Bowl. Jasen Vinlove, USA TODAY Sports

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Sugar Bowl preview, Clemson vs. Alabama: Who has the edge?

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Sugar Bowl preview, Clemson vs. Alabama: Who has the edge?

Clemson's keys to victory

Alabama's keys to victory

Clemson's X factor

Alabama's X factor

Clemson player to watch

Alabama player to watch

Score prediction

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