Rose Bowl preview, Oklahoma vs. Georgia: Who has the edge?

Lindsay Schnell, USA TODAY Sports Published 4:56 p.m. ET Dec. 31, 2017

SportsPulse: USA TODAY's college football reporters Paul Myerberg and George Schroeder give their take on who will win the Rose Bowl. USA TODAY Sports

How is it that two of the most storied programs in college football history have never met?

On Monday, in a matchup of opposite styles, Oklahoma and Georgia will play each other in the Rose Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal. It’s the first meeting between two of college football’s bluebloods, with the winner advancing to Atlanta and the CFP title game on Jan. 8.

Oklahoma features Baker Mayfield, the 2017 Heisman Trophy winner who exudes confidence, plays with tremendous swagger and loves trash talk. Georgia has two of the best backs in the country in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, but the foundation of their success this season is rooted in defense, led by Roquan Smith, maybe the best overall defensive player in the country.

Oklahoma has been here before, having lost to Clemson in the 2015 Orange Bowl semifinal. Georgia, under second-year coach Kirby Smart, is appearing in the CFP for the first time but is one of two SEC teams represented. Can Mayfield and the Sooners redeem themselves after a brutal second half in 2015? Or is this the beginning of a new SEC dynasty led by the Bulldogs?

Georgia’s keys to victory

Keep Baker Mayfield — who has been suffering from flu-like symptoms — contained. Many have tried, almost no one has succeeded. The senior QB runs the most prolific offense in the country, throwing for 333.8 yards per game (fourth best in the country). Though he’s only rushed for 305 total yards this season, Mayfield is also capable of hurting teams with his feet, either running and scoring touchdowns (which he’s done five times) or scrambling and finding receivers downfield.

Chubb (90.4 yards per game) and Michel (79 ypg) are maybe the best running back duo in Georgia history, capable of gobbling up big yardage. Oklahoma hasn’t seen running backs like these two anytime this season — though the Sooners argue that their running backs from last year, Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, gave them plenty of looks at guys capable of doing damage in the ground game. Georgia needs to establish the run early, and keep going back to it.

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Oklahoma’s keys to victory

Scoring is the name of the game for the Sooners, who average 583.3 yards of offense per game, the most in college football. They do that in what many would argue is a conference that puts no value on defense. But Oklahoma also hung 490 yards of offense on vaunted Ohio State in September, and that was on the Buckeyes’ home field. Oklahoma needs to put a lot of points on the board — preferably early and often — and make sure it plays the style and tempo it wants.

Conversely, the Sooners need to make sure Georgia never gets comfortable running the ball and eating up clock. That means it’s on the Sooners defense, a much-maligned group, to force a lot of three-and-outs. Some coaches claim time of possession isn’t an important factor in the up-tempo era of football, but on New Year’s Day, it probably will be.

Georgia's X factor

Quarterback Jake Fromm. He’s been praised for playing like a veteran all season, but what happens on the biggest stage of his young career? Fromm got thrown into the fire unexpectedly in the season opener when then-starter Jacob Eason sprained a knee. The next week, Fromm started at Notre Dame. Fromm hasn’t asked to do much this season — it helps to have two All-American caliber running backs to hand the ball to — but has managed the Bulldogs well. He is 145-for-230 passing for 2,173 yards and 21 touchdowns with five interceptions. But he has had a couple of freshmen moments too, including a fumble at Notre Dame. Oklahoma players talked in Los Angeles this week about wanting to hit Fromm early, hoping it will rattle the rookie.

Oklahoma's X factor

Mayfield. Exactly how sick is the Heisman winner? That’s been the question of the week as Mayfield, the biggest personality in college football, skipped almost all non-practice events as he battles the “flu or whatever you want to call it.” Mayfield practiced sporadically in L.A. — based on what news media were able to see at least — but no one knows what to expect Monday afternoon. Mayfield is the most dynamic player in college football, capable of beating teams with his arm or his feet. For the season he’s 262-for-369 passing for 4,340 yards and 41 touchdowns (and five interceptions). He also has been here before; Mayfield was a sophomore starter in 2015 when Oklahoma lost to Clemson in the Orange Bowl semifinal. Mayfield has built his career on overcoming slights and snubs, and he relishes the underdog role. Don’t underestimate the value of him wanting redemption.

Georgia player to watch

Roquan Smith, linebacker. Yes, Oklahoma piles up yards mostly through the air, but handing the ball off likely will be a necessity because Georgia allows only 158.3 passing yards a game (No. 2 in college football). That means when Rodney Anderson & Co., get the ball, it’s showtime for Smith. The best linebacker — and maybe the best overall defensive player — in the nation, Smith has scary speed and an off-the-charts football IQ. He leads the team in 113 tackles, including 10.5 tackles for loss. If Georgia wins, Smith will have a lot to do with it.

Oklahoma player to watch

Left tackle Orlando Brown. The 6-8, 345-pound offensive lineman has the most important job on the field: Protect Mayfield. A unanimous first-team All-American and likely first-round selection in the 2018 NFL Draft, Brown must keep Mayfield upright against one of the nation's best defenses. Oklahoma has allowed 21 sacks, but life gets dicey when your quarterback starts scrambling out of the pocket. As long as Brown protects Mayfield, the Sooners should win. But if Mayfield gets hit a lot, the already sick quarterback could have a very long night.

Score prediction

Bottom line, these teams have never seen anything like the other one. The Big 12 is criticized for a lack of defense, but in truth the Sooners are better defensively than most realize. They’ll be able to hold Georgia’s running game in check. On the other side, there’s no way to accurately portray Mayfield in scout team practice. As good at UGA thinks Mayfield is, he’ll likely be better Monday afternoon in person.

Oklahoma 42, Georgia 34

Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst celebrates after winning the Orange Bowl. Jasen Vinlove, USA TODAY Sports

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Rose Bowl preview, Oklahoma vs. Georgia: Who has the edge?

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Rose Bowl preview, Oklahoma vs. Georgia: Who has the edge?

Georgia’s keys to victory

Oklahoma’s keys to victory

Georgia's X factor

Oklahoma's X factor

Georgia player to watch

Oklahoma player to watch

Score prediction

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