SportsPulse: NHL insider Kevin Allen believes the Vegas Golden Knights have been a resounding success for the NHL and could pave the way for another team in Seattle. USA TODAY Sports
A clear day with no snow forecast for Monday's Winter Classic in New York shouldn't be needed to see the New York Rangers have the potential be the sleeper on this season's contender list.
Look beyond the 1-2-1 record over the past four games, and what you see is a team that has been among the league’s best since Halloween.
After a horrendous 3-7-2 start, the Rangers have gone 17-6-3 with a plus-23 goal differential since Oct. 31. By contrast, the Tampa Bay Lightning, the NHL’s No. 1 team overall, have gone 17-6-1 with a plus-27 goal differential.
The Rangers’ outdoor game against the Buffalo Sabres (1 p.m. ET, NBC) is their 39th game, but it is close enough to the halfway point in the season to take stock and to determine who they are and what needs to be fixed to live up to their potential. As of Sunday afternoon, the Rangers occupy the top wild-card spot, six points behind the division lead.
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This is far from a perfect team. The Rangers surrender too many shots on goal (33.7 per game), and that has contributed to a Corsi rating that is among the league’s worst. The Rangers’ power play, 0-for-15 in the past five games, is ordinary. At 18.7%, it ranks 18th overall. They rely on four-line depth, but there is no star forward to point to every night. It has to be a group effort. The defense has pieces to be better than it has shown.
But other encouraging numbers suggest if they tighten up defensively and improve their power play they can be at least as dangerous as the team that reached the Stanley Cup Final in 2013-14.
In that season, the Rangers ranked fourth in goals-against average (2.32) and 19th in goal-scoring (2.61). This season, with scoring up around the NHL, the Rangers are seventh in goals-against average (2.71) and eighth in scoring (3.11).
As a general rule, any team that ranks in, or near, the top five in both categories will be in contention.
The Rangers are still heavily dependent upon goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, who is still playing at a high level. He has a .922 save percentage, compared to the .920 mark he owned in the year they went to the Final.
This is a Rangers team that should understand their situation and potential. The Rangers have an eye on the future, with some quality youngsters (Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil chief among them) coming. But the team’s star goalie is 35 and he has this season and three more left on his contract. The Rangers aren’t waiting for younger players to develop. Time is counting down on Lundqvist’s ability to be a difference maker.
Straddling the line between protecting your future and being all-in is a difficult challenge, but it can be done.
The Rangers have to act as if they believe they have as much chance to win the Cup as the Lightning, Nashville Predators, or any of the other top contenders.
The Rangers have beaten each of the four division leaders — Lightning, Washington Capitals, Predators and Vegas Golden Knights. If Lundqvist is at his best, it’s not unthinkable that they could make a lengthy playoff run.
But qualifying is not even a given, considering the strength of the Metropolitan Division.
That’s why this Winter Classic is such an important game for the Rangers. This is a big stage on New Year’s Day, and the Rangers need to set a tone for 2018. They need to show that they can overcome the loss of Chris Kreider (blood clot), whose size/speed/skill are hard to replace, and that they can make adjustments to limit the number of chances against.
A memorable performance in the Winter Classic may reaffirm that general manager Jeff Gorton should do all he can in the trade market to prepare this team for a playoff run. One game isn't going to alter how Gorton views his team, but emotional wins on a big stage put a charge into an organization.
Gorton isn’t going to move his prize prospects, nor will he overpay for a temporary remedy. But if momentum starts building with a win in the Winter Classic, Gorton might make an extra phone call to see what he can do to help this team today.
