The economic optimism that has recently been reported in some national news outlets seems to be alive and well in the Wichita Falls area, based on the numbers from November.
All the sectors report encouraging economic information. As always, there remain some challenges, but these are not sufficient to be discouraging.
Among the most encouraging is the employment report. While our local job numbers are lower than this time last year, the current number of jobs is more than one percent higher compared to the beginning of 2017.
The current unemployment rate is 3.1 percent, which is a drop of 1.1 percent compared to November 2016. We still have room for additional job creation and with the apparent momentum in the correct direction, perhaps this will continue into the New Year.
A similar picture is developing with respect to the energy sector. While oil and natural gas prices are far from their historic high values, they currently are moving higher.
The average price for oil during November is nearly 24 percent higher compared to November 2016. Likewise, natural gas prices are higher by 18 percent using the same comparison period.
Although it is mostly minimal, the two active rigs reported in our area during November are an improvement compared to the zero (0) number reported last year, so we do have some exploration activities in progress.
Retail sales are estimated to be 4.3 lower in the month-to-month comparison with sales tax receipts dropping slightly, by 0.1 percent in the same time. The year-over-year comparison, however, reports nominal increases of 0.1 percent in sales and 0.2 percent in sales taxes.
Through the end of November, retail sales in the Wichita Falls market are estimated to have reached $1.375 billion.
Planned home construction, based on building permits issued during November, are much higher in the month-to-month comparison and for the year-over-year comparison, they are higher by more than 31 percent.
The estimated value of construction projects for which building permits were issued during November are 8.8 percent higher month-to-month. We continue to deal with the anomaly of building permits issued during the early part of 2016, making interpretation of the year-over-year comparison mostly meaningless.
The local real estate market seems to be humming along nicely, even though November is usually a part of the slower period for annual sales.
While the year-over-year sales are lower by less than one percent, the month-to-month closings are higher by more than 11 percent.
Average prices, both in the month-to-month and year-over-year comparisons are higher by 2.9 percent and 2.8 percent respectively. Hopefully this is a leading indicator of expectations for next year.
Continuing growth in retail sales for 2017, favorable indications from the real estate sector, improving strength in planned construction, progress in employment, and continued improvement in energy prices all combine to raise the Wichita Falls Economic Index to 106.8, up by 0.1 over the October level and a full point over the index for November 2016.
Since the December data will soon begin to emerge, a preliminary analysis of our economy for 2017 is not far away. Happy new year and stay safe.