UK players performed a self-written song at the Music City Bowl welcome party. Jon Hale/The Courier-Journal
NASHVILLE, Tenn. – Three keys to a victory and a prediction for Kentucky football’s Music City Bowl appearance versus Northwestern.
1. Win the rushing battle
Mark Stoops is always quick to note teams that win the rushing battle generally win the game in the Southeastern Conference. Kentucky won’t face an SEC opponent Friday, but the old adage appears to be even truer versus Northwestern.
Northwestern’s defense ranks 10th nationally in fewest rushing yards surrendered per game (111.3), presenting one of the most difficult tests yet for Kentucky star running back Benny Snell. The Northwestern offense ranks 70th nationally in rushing yards per game (160.2) but features senior running back Justin Jackson, the ninth player in FBS history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in four consecutive seasons.
“They’ve got a good defense, but they’ve been in overtime three times so it’s about who really wants it,” Snell said. “As an offense, I really want it. It’s going to be a good game.”
Kentucky’s run defense started the season strong but faltered down the stretch as the competition improved, surrendering 727 total rushing yards in blowout losses to Georgia and Louisville to close the season.
“We’ll get a good test in this game, and hopefully we’ll get back like we did at times this year,” Stoops said. “At times it’s been good, and at times not up to par.”
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2. Return to form for Stephen Johnson
UK coaches have acknowledged quarterback Stephen Johnson was not totally healthy down the stretch of the regular season, but Johnson has generally blamed his own inconsistency for any struggles. Health should not be a hindrance to Johnson now though after a month without a game and a period of bowl practices that saw backups Drew Barker and Gunnar Hoak receive a larger share of the reps as a preview for the spring quarterback competition.
Johnson did not throw for 200 yards in any of UK’s last three games and completed just 48.8 percent of his passes against Georgia and Louisville. He threw for just one touchdown and two interceptions in UK’s final six regular season games.
With Northwestern’s run defense a stout opponent, Johnson will need to do his part to help Snell and the other UK running backs through the air.
“He's very resilient," Stoops said. "He's tough. It's very hard to get him out of the games, as you know. But he is healthy. Had a chance to rest up for a couple weeks, get back in the weight room, gain some weight. He's looked very good here."
Northwestern ranks 100th nationally in passing yards surrendered per game (247.6).
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3. Help from young defenders
UK’s Music City Bowl week started on a sour note with the news starting outside linebacker Denzil Ware would miss the game due to a violation of team rules. That loss was added to existing uncertainty about linebacker Jordan Jones’ role in the game.
With Ware out, freshman Josh Paschal will likely assume the starting “Jack” linebacker spot. Junior Kengera Daniel will serve as his backup. Redshirt freshman Boogie Watson could also see time at the position.
Considering UK’s defensive struggles — Kentucky ranks 90th nationally in total yards surrendered per game (425.7) — Stoops and defensive coordinator Matt House can ill afford to lose any of their best playmakers. The good news is Paschal and Watson have impressed in backup roles this season with a combined 5.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks.
If Kentucky is to pull off the upset Saturday, those young players will need to make sure the absence of Ware is not noticeable.
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Prediction
Northwestern 35, Kentucky 24
There should be no shortage of motivation for Kentucky in the Music City Bowl considering the poor end to the regular season, but Stoops’ team drew one of the most difficult opponents it could have in a mid-tier bowl game. Northwestern has won nine straight entering the game, and Jackson should be excited to go against a run defense as porous as Kentucky’s in his final collegiate game. Expect UK to keep it close, but Northwestern is the better team.
Jon Hale: jahale@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @JonHale_CJ. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: www.courier-journal.com/jonh.