The result of the Sabong assembly bypoll in West Bengal is encouraging for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The party ended a creditable third with a much improved vote share, which indicates its continued surge in Bengal.
But a closer reading of the result reveals how multi-cornered contests might help BJP elsewhere in the country. In Bengal, it could mean the party failing to translate the anti-incumbency against the Mamata Banerjee government into seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The bypoll was necessitated after Manas Bhunia, the sitting Congress legislator from the seat, quit to join the Trinamool Congress. With the party sending him to the Rajya Sabha, his wife Gita Rani Bhunia contested and won.
Gita Rani polled 106,185 votes, followed by CPI (M) candidate's 41,989, BJP’s 37,483 and Congress’ 18,063. Sabong, in West Medinipur, has traditionally been a Congress pocket borough.
As apparent from the result, the BJP wasn’t the only beneficiary of the anti-Trinamool votes. As CPI (M) chief Sitaram Yechury tweeted, his party finished second in a seat it has not contested after 1982. “We will only do better from here,” he said. The BJP pointed how it had received a meagre 1.3% in 2011 assembly polls on the seat, which increased marginally to 2.6% in 2016, and to 18.08% in this bypoll.
For 2019, the BJP has a plan where it hopes to compensate for its losses in north and west, where it had maximised its winnings in 2014, by winning in states like Bengal. Its recent performances in Bengal are evidence of the party being a serious challenger.
But multi-cornered contests are likely to be the order of the day for the 42 of Bengal’s Lok Sabha seats in 2019. The Trinamool Congress and Congress are already laying the ground to highlight their rivalry, and the CPI (M)-led Left Front has redoubled its efforts to herald a revival.
During the ongoing winter session of Parliament, the Trinamool has pursued its own strategy independent of the Congress and presented itself as a strident voice against the Narendra Modi government. Trinamool leader Derek O’Brien has also spoken of her party chief Mamata Banerjee having the best credentials to lead the Opposition in 2019.
The Congress and CPI (M) have also chosen not to continue the electoral understanding reached for the 2016 assembly elections in Bengal. The word from the two parties is that there will not be any electoral understanding between the two in 2019.
It is somewhat of a repeat of 2004 polls. After aligning with the Trinamool for the assembly polls in 2001, the Congress fielded candidates on 37 of the 42-seats in 2004 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress won six. The Trinamool struck an alliance with the BJP, which turned out to be disastrous. It contested 29-seats, winning just four, while BJP couldn’t win any. The CPI (M) won 32 of the 42-seats.
In 2004, the Congress and CPI (M) had declared and undeclared electoral understandings across the country. In Bengal, the Congress did the CPI (M) a favour, and in turn itself as well, by putting up a fight on as many seats as it did and ensured a split in anti-CPI (M) votes. Subsequently, the CPI (M) was a key partner in the UPA 1 government.
Last Sunday, the Congress party hosted a farewell dinner for outgoing party chief Sonia Gandhi. Representatives of only three other parties were given a seat at the table reserved for Sonia Gandhi, former prime minister Manmohan Singh, former president Pranab Mukherjee and former vice president M Hamid Ansari. These were representatives from the Trinamool Congress, the DMK and the Left parties.