TTV Dhinakaran, former deputy general secretary of the AIADMK who contested as an independent candidate, won the RK Nagar bypolls held on December 21, the result of which was announced on Sunday. Dhinakaran polled 89, 103 out of the total 1,77, 074 votes cast in the by-poll and was declared elected by a margin of 40,707 votes. The RK Nagar result has shocked and surprised political Tamil Nadu. “This is similar to what happened in the Delhi election in 2015 when the Congress transferred its votes en bloc to the AAP,” said Mankombu Gopalakrishnan, writer and commentator.
Dhinakaran’s nearest rival, E Madhusudanan of the AIADMK could poll only 48,306 votes and finished runner-up in the race. All the remaining 57 candidates including that of the DMK forfeited their deposits. The BJP which polled 1368 votes finished sixth behind NOTA (2203).
The RK Nagar by-poll was necessitated following the demise of J Jayalalithaa, the former chief minister and the general secretary of the AIADMK on December 5, 2016. In the assembly election held in May 2016, Jayalalithaa had won the seat defeating her DMK rival by a margin of 39,545 votes. The late leader had polled 97, 218 votes against Shimla Muthuchozhan of the DMK who had scored 57, 673 votes.
This is the first time after 2001 in Tamil Nadu a ruling party is losing a by-election. The by-poll result at R K Nagar was crucial for the AIADMK government as it has the support of only 111 MLAs in a House which has an effective strength of 234 seats. Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswamy should have the support of 118 MLAs to claim absolute majority. The RK Nagar result has put a shadow on the continuation of the government. The Madras High Court is hearing a batch of petitions filed by the 18 disqualified MLAs of the AIADMK and some of the DMK MLAs who were on the verge of getting disqualified by the Speaker. The court is expected to pronounce the verdict in early next month.
Speaking to reporters after the election result was announced , Dhinakaran, who was eased out of the post of the deputy general secretary by the Palaniswamy-Panneerselvam combine in August 21 , said that the present government led by Palaniswamy would fall in three months time. “It doesn’t matter who has the party’s name and symbol, because today it has been shown that we are the true AIADMK. It matters who the people and party workers have sided with,” said Dhinakaran at Madurai earlier in the day.
What has baffled political observers and commentators in Tamil Nadu is the margin of victory registered by Dhinakaran and the steep fall in the votes polled by the DMK. The DMK was supported by the VCK, Congress, CPI,CPI(M) , MDMK and Muslim League besides some of the
Islamic organisations. “It s clear that the DMK had a secret alliance with the Dhinakaran camp. Dhinakaran was leading from the world go. The DMK has transferred its votes to Dhinakaran,” said Semmalai, a former minister in Jayalalithaa cabinet and senior AIADMK leader.
Singai Ramchandran, spokesman of the party pointed out that despite the presence of all major parties in its front, the DMK failed to score even half of 57,673 votes which it had polled in the last assembly election. “This is match-fixing,” he said.
Interestingly , Stalin too had said before the RK Nagar by-poll that the Palaniswamy government would fall in tree months time. “There will be an election and DMK would come to power,” he had said on the last day of campaigning at R K Nagar.
The bypoll result has brought Tamil Nadu back to a stage of political uncertainty. Dhinakaran, who has been claiming that he would activate his sleeper cells in the OPS-EPS faction may try to pull the government down. Statement made by Lok Sabha deputy speaker Thampi Durai that the RK Nagar result is a rebuff to the 2G Spectrum Case has given rise to speculations of an outflow of MLAs and MPs from the AIADMK to Dhinakaran camp.