RK Nagar bypoll result: What's next for Tamil Nadu after TTV Dhinakaran's big win

Dhinakaran's election to J Jayalalithaa's former assembly seat in northern Chennai is expected to increase his clout in a party which sidelined him, after Chief Minister E Palaniswami and O Pannerselvam merged their camps earlier this year.

Shalini LoboAkshaya NathPriyamvatha P.  | Written by Ganesh Kumar Radha Udayakumar
Chennai, December 24, 2017 | UPDATED 22:20 IST

Surrounded by smiling cadres as night fell in Chennai, TTV Dhinakaran on Sunday hailed the beginning of a new chapter for the AIADMK and vowed to win back its symbol from the government, minutes after being confirmed as the new MLA from RK Nagar.

Dhinakaran's election to J Jayalalithaa's former assembly seat in northern Chennai is expected to increase his clout in a party which sidelined him, after Chief Minister E Palaniswami and O Pannerselvam merged their camps earlier this year. Dhinakaran told reporters a floor test would reveal the strength of "the sleeper cells," indicating that MLAs who publicly expressed support for the AIADMK top brass were secretly loyal to him. It is a claim he has made before.

Sounding cool and supremely confident, Dhinkaran also promised to take care of the work 'Amma' left behind, and said the result of the bypoll had merely confirmed his prediction. RK Nagar constituency residents had given the "cadre of MGR and Amma" a victory, he said.

What lies in store for Tamil Nadu after the election for TTV Dhinakaran, a former MP who Jayalalithaa once expelled from the AIADMK?

Here are three major takeaways, based on India Today's day-long ground reporting from RK Nagar.

1. COULD MLAs DEFECT?: After his win, Dhinakaran reminded reporters that he'd told them "many MLAs" had promised "to go (to Team EPS-OPS) and come back." What' s true that his new-found power will give the duo in government sleepless nights. As many as 18 lawmakers who supported Dhinakaran were disqualified recently, but the new RK Nagar MLA is fighting a legal battle to have them reinstated.

Meanwhile, he could attempt to woo more lawmakers from the AIADMK, and reach out to ministers. His brother, Venkatesh, claimed "some MLAs" had been in touch today, but added that he couldn't "reveal everything."

Can a man who claims to have 'sleeper cells' in the ruling faction topple the Tamil Nadu government in months? We'll have to wait and see, but it's not impossible.

For now, the government has only 116 MLAs (three of whom are believed to be fence-sitters). In a full assembly of 234 elected members (including the 18 disqualified members), that figure falls short of the halfway mark. It's certainly higher than 109, the number needed to win a confidence vote - but can TTV chip away at the government's support?

2. SYMBOL WAR: The Election Commission granted Palaniswami's AIADMK the right to use the famous 'rettai ilai' (two leaves) symbol. But could shifting loyalties help Dhinakaran retrieve the symbol, which has been associated with the party since the MGR days? He certainly intends to. An alternate possibility: He could launch a separate party.

3. CASES: TTV Dhinakaran will need to face cases like the Election Commission bribery case (in which he was arrested this year, and later released on bail), and ensure he stays out of jail.

For now, what's true is that the 80,000-odd RK Nagar voters who elected TTV Dhinakaran were either unaware of, or didn't care about his cases - or the fact that his aunt Sasikala, to whom he and his supporters are loyal, was convicted by the country's highest court in a disproportionate assets case.

WATCH | TTV Dhinakaran wins crucial RK Nagar bypoll by huge margin