Viewed from any direction, the past week has not been ideal for the Government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, it has not been as disastrous a week as some of his more trenchant critics make it out to be.
First, the election results, while entirely satisfactory, fell below the BJP’s own lofty expectations. I am not referring to the steep 150-seat target that Amit Shah had set for the party karyakartas to motivate them into giving their best. The fact that the BJP won a sixth consecutive election and successfully beat back anti-incumbency was creditable. More creditable was the ability of the BJP to poll as high as 49 per cent of the popular vote, an achievement that in the normal circumstances would have contributed to an electoral sweep.
However, the reality is that the BJP was able to win 99 seats. This inability to cross the three-figure mark was significant in terms of optics. It enabled the Opposition Congress to claim, with some measure of credibility, that the tide was turning and even assert that the Modi wave would be rolled back. Adding Himachal Pradesh to the bag of the growing number of States where the BJP is in power was no doubt a big morale booster for the BJP. Unfortunately, both in terms of size and symbolic importance, Himachal ranks well below Gujarat.
Gaining votes but losing seats in Gujarat is undoubtedly an uncharacteristically quirky outcome of the first-past-the-post system, but the disastrous outcome in some districts of Saurashtra was significant. It suggested an important failure of the internal feedback system. The Modi Government and the BJP were alert to the potential damage of the transition to GST and took steps to fix some of the more obvious loose ends. Equally, there was a special drive to blunt the sharp edges of the Patidar reservations stir. Exit poll data suggests that the BJP checked the Patel exodus quite well. However, it seems that the leadership was guilty of not paying sufficient attention to the agrarian disquiet over minimum support price to groundnut and cotton, and the fisherfolk’s resentment at the withdrawal of kerosene subsidy-used in the coastal areas to run motorised fishing vessels.
This failure in turn has contributed to the larger narrative of the Modi Government being extremely vulnerable to the political backlash against agrarian distress. Since perception is all-important in politics, any failure to address this issue will create political complications for Modi and the BJP.
Secondly, the 2-G verdict that resulted in the acquittal of DMK stalwarts charged with benefitting from a monumental Rs 1.76 lakh crore scam, has led to fingers being pointed at the Government. The anger is not, as the Congress would like to believe, on account of the previous Manmohan Singh being allegedly vilified. I don’t think there is too much doubt in the popular imagination that the UPA regime was above board. Despite all its efforts to claim victimhood, the Congress continues to be automatically linked to corrupt practices. The disquiet, it would seem is over the Modi Government’s failure to secure convictions in this landmark case.
It is possible that a High Court will overturn the CBI court judgment. That, however, is in the distant future. What will matter for the time being are two factors. First, the Congress ecosystem that has traditionally had a very indulgent view of corruption has been galvanised into believing that the slate has been wiped clean. Rahul Gandhi’s aggressive comments after the Congress Working Committee meeting reflected the overconfidence that anti-corruption as a political plank is no longer viable and that it is business as usual. Secondly, and for the BJP this is a very serious consideration, the 2G verdict has given rise to the impression that the BJP is not serious in pursuing corruption cases against the stalwarts of the erstwhile regime.
This may well only be an impression, not backed by substantial evidence, but it has certainly demoralised BJP supporters. This disquiet stems from the fact that three years into the Modi Government, there has been no significant prosecution of those apparently responsible for the various scams. The feeling that there is a section of the Government deliberately dragging its feet may be unduly conspiratorial. But the court’s observations of the prosecution’s laxity are calculated to bolster such impressions.
Unlike Congress supporters whose relationship with their party is largely transactional, the BJP support base responds to politics emotionally. For them, politics is bound up in causes. From the construction of the Ram Temple and spreading the glory of India worldwide to cleansing public life, the BJP support base is driven by emotions. That emotional commitment has received a battering and will need to be bolstered. There are already warning signs: the drop in the turnout of voters in Gujarat and the sharp rise in voters opting for NOTA indicate a measure of disappointment.
In 2014, the BJP supporters ran that extra distance because they had faith in Narendra Modi. It was their commitment and faith that allowed the party to scale new heights. The faith in the Prime Minister hasn’t waned. The disappointment stems from the Government’s lack of purposefulness and hesitation in some fields. Last week’s vote in the UN General Assembly on the issue of Jerusalem was a good example of the mismatch between the BJP mood and the official reaction.
To gain any lost momentum, Modi must take the lead in restoring a sense of mission in the ranks of his supporters. It is only when his vast support base is galvanised and motivated will they be in the frame of mind to persuade the sceptics. The 2014 vote was for change and leadership. Both must be amply visible and felt.