The dawn of the New Year is expected to herald a new phase in Karnataka politics, with elections to be held by the end of the first half of the year when the term of the incumbent Legislative Assembly draws to a close, and prospects for the various political parties continuing to be dynamic at the present juncture.
The period will also mark the entry of national leaders of the two main political parties — the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party — into the State electoral scene and it is expected to be a carry forward of the Gujarat election campaign where Prime Minister Narendra Modi and newly elected president of the All India Congress Committee Rahul Gandhi were the star campaigners.
The only other major political party in the State is the Janata Dal (Secular), and its leaders H.D. Deve Gowda and H.D. Kumaraswamy are already in the campaign mode.
The political scenario in Karnataka, it should be noted, is way different from most other States, leave alone Gujarat, and at best could bear a resemblance to that of the neighbouring States of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Telengana. While the Janata Party and the Janata Dal (JD) have been in power for two full terms, the JD(S), which was carved out of the JD, was part of two coalition governments — the first in association with the Congress and thereafter with the BJP.
The JD(S) can thus possibly continue to be the kingmaker should there be a divided vote in the ensuing elections.
In the aftermath of the Gujarat elections wherein the BJP just about managed to retain the seat of power following a tough challenge posed by the Congress, the kind of political defections that are likely to be witnessed in Karnataka in the run-up to the Assembly elections will be an interesting feature to follow. There are many legislators waiting in the wings to book their seats in a rival party which they believe will form the next government.
As such, seven legislators of the JD(S), led by the former Minister N. Cheluvarayaswamy, have informally aligned with the Congress, but that was because of sharp differences they had with the JD(S) leadership for well over two years.
In recent weeks, the former BJP Minister Umesh Katti, who was earlier in the Janata Dal, is also speaking out against the BJP, thus indicating that he is attempting yet another shift of loyalties.
Polarisation of political forces here is of a different kind and is largely based on castes rather than any other philosophy or ideals.
While the Scheduled Castes, the Scheduled Tribes, Muslims, and backward classes have been the backbone of the Congress, the Vokkaligas have largely been with the JD(S), and the Lingayats with the BJP. Barring some minor changes, this trend is expected to continue for some more time irrespective of the recent demand of the Lingayats to be granted the status of a separate religion.
The BJP is scouting for an advantage using a variety of issues, including the sporadic incidents of attacks and deaths witnessed in the coastal districts.
The districts of Dakshin Kannada, Udupi, Uttara Kannada, and Chikkamagaluru have been the centre of many incidents in the recent months and the BJP has been a force to reckon with in these districts.
(The writer is Resident Representative, The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy, Bengaluru)
