Newly proposed sanctions on North Korea could have a significant effect on the isolated country's already struggling economy, analysts said ahead of an expected UN Security Council vote on Friday, which will hinge on support from China and Russia.
Tensions have been rising over North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, which it pursues in defiance of years of UN Security Council resolutions, with bellicose rhetoric from the North and the White House.
But U.S. diplomats have made clear they are seeking a diplomatic solution and have proposed a number of new, tougher sanctions designed to ratchet up pressure on North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
North Korea regularly threatens to destroy South Korea, the United States and Japan and says its weapons programs are necessary to counter U.S. aggression. The United States stations 28,500 troops in the South, a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean War.
On Friday, a spokesperson for North Korea's foreign ministry called President Donald Trump's recently released national security strategy the latest U.S. policy seeking to "stifle our country and turn the entire Korean peninsula" into an outpost of American hegemony.
He said Trump was seeking "total subordination of the whole world."
Increasing pressure
The draft UN resolution, seen by Reuters on Thursday, seeks to ban nearly 90 per cent of refined petroleum product exports to North Korea by capping them at 500,000 barrels a year and demand the repatriation of North Koreans working abroad within 12 months.
It would also cap crude oil supplies to North Korea at four million barrels a year, as well as ban a number of North Korean exports such as machinery, lumber, and other products and resources.
"If they were enforced, the cap on oil would be devastating for North Korea's haulage industry, for North Koreans who use generators at home or for productive activities, and for [state-owned enterprises] that do the same," said Peter Ward, a columnist for NK News, a website that tracks North Korea.
Workers from a nearby North Korean restaurant walk along a footpath wearing traditional costumes in central Beijing on June 18, 2012. (David Gray/Reuters)
The forced repatriation of foreign workers would also cut off vital sources of foreign currency and investment not only for the government but also for North Korea's emerging market economy, he said.
"If such sanctions were enforced, they would thus impede and endanger North Korea's economic development."
Asked about the effects of sanctions before these latest proposals were announced, Michael Kirby, who led a UN inquiry into human rights abuses in North Korea, said cutting off fuel imports would be "a very serious step."
"Cutting off oil, petroleum supplies would obviously have a very big impact on the ordinary population," he said.
Eyes on China, Russia
China, which supplies most of North Korea's oil, has backed successive rounds of UN sanctions but has resisted past U.S. calls to cut off supplies to its neighbour.
Asked about the proposed new resolution on North Korea, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying called on all sides to exercise restraint and to "strictly implement the current relevant UN Security Council resolutions."
While not directly addressing the new proposals, Hua said that China would maintain communications with all sides and supports measures to "quickly create the necessary conditions to peacefully resolve the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue through talks."
Any move to curb exports of Chinese fuel to North Korea may have limited impact after China National Petroleum Corp suspended diesel and gasoline sales to its northern neighbour in June over concerns the state-owned company would not get paid.
Business has slowed steadily since then, with zero shipments of diesel, gasoline and other fuel from China in October. November data will be released on Monday.
Russia quietly boosted economic support for North Korea earlier this year, and last week Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov said that Moscow was not ready to sign up to new sanctions that would strangle the country economically.
China and Russia on Thursday asked for more time to consider a U.S. proposal to blacklist 10 ships for transporting banned items from North Korea, diplomats said. It was unclear how much more time would be given.
Even if the proposed sanctions have an economic effect, it's not clear whether that would push Pyongyang to negotiate or stop its weapons development, said Kim Sung-han, a former South Korean vice foreign minister.
"We have had numerous — sometimes so-called toughest — sanctions against North Korea over the past 25 years," he said. "Almost none have worked effectively to halt the regime's military and nuclear ambitions."
