Wins and worries: BJP's Gujarat win exposed chinks in its electoral armour

Hours after the BJP's double victory in the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi drove to the party headquarters in New Delhi to greet the faithful. Flanked by his senior cabinet and party colleagues, Modi made an impassioned victory speech that had elements of triumphalism, conciliation and an astute reiteration of his commitment to vikas (development). While concluding with his usual exhortation of Bharat Mata ki jai he then, with unusual fervour, urged the crowd to chant along with him, Jeetega Bhai Jeetega, Vikas hi Jeetega (Development will always emerge the winner). In doing so the prime minister was setting the agenda for the even bigger battles ahead that include a handful of vital state polls before his re-election bid in the 2019 general election.

It is Modi's ability to think way ahead of his opponents even as he savours victory that makes him India's tallest leader. After the BJP's decisive win in Uttar Pradesh in March and its forming a government in three of the other four state polls held then, Modi in his victory rally announced that by 2022, when the nation celebrates 75 years of Independence, he would forge a New India that would fulfil the dreams of the country's young who constitute 65 per cent of India's population. He outlined a vision for the new generation, indirectly appealing to them for a second term to fulfil it. Now, after the Gujarat victory, Modi was signalling to his party that vikas first and not Hindutva would be his major plank for 2019.

More than anyone else, the prime minister is acutely aware of the challenges and imperatives the New Year brings. The win in Gujarat may have helped him retain the BJP's asmita (pride), but it came with plenty of worries and warnings for the remaining 18 months of his tenure.

First, the win in Gujarat. What was to be a cinch for the BJP on Modi's home turf turned out to be a bruising battle that went down to the wire. With a lacklustre state leadership, a rebellious Hardik Patel gaining traction and a combative Rahul Gandhi willing to give as good as he got, it would take all of Modi's skills as a political strategist and communicator coupled with Amit Shah's organisational wizardry to pull off a narrow victory. Without doubt, it is impressive that Modi beat back anti-incumbency and ensured that the BJP won the state for a record sixth time. And that the Modi-Shah duo have together powered the BJP/ NDA to 15 wins out of the 23 assembly elections fought since 2014. It means that the BJP, for the first time in its history, now rules over 19 of the 29 states, reducing the Congress to a meagre five and replacing it as the sole pan-national party.

Next, the worries. The Gujarat results exposed clear fault-lines that will haunt the BJP as it gears up for elections in the politically significant states of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in 2018. There is an over-dependence on Modi as the prime vote catcher with no second line of leadership emerging. There is a clear urban-rural divide in the voting patterns. The Congress got the better of the BJP in villages cashing in on the ruling party's failure to tackle farmers' distress and alleviate rural poverty. There is also growing disillusionment among the young and unemployed that Rahul and Hardik were able to effectively mobilise. It would be naive to conclude that the electorate has endorsed demonetisation and GST despite the slowdown in the economy these caused. If the cities of Gujarat have backed Modi, it is because, compared to the others, they still think of him as the best bet to pull the country out of the present economic slump. Also because the Central government bent over backwards to remove the GST irritants which had the state's traders up in arms.

Finally, the warnings for the party. With the arrogance the ruling party exhibited (what critics call tanashahi) and its belief that a state can be run by overarching Central control, the BJP is falling into the trap patented by the Congress. The BJP's win-at-any cost approach, including welcoming defectors to its fold, is compromising the 'ideological purity' it prided itself with and has created heartburn among loyalists. Witness the shameless induction of Shankersinh Vaghela and his follower into the party just before the Rajya Sabha bypoll in a bid to beat Ahmed Patel. It proved a turning point, as the Congress then put up a ferocious fight by forming alliances with three community leaders, including Hardik.

Then Modi and the BJP, in their desperation to win votes in the final phase of campaigning in the Gujarat elections, resorted to communally divisive barbs rather than tom-tom the famed Gujarat development model. Modi was also less than prime ministerial when he charged his predecessor, Dr Manmohan Singh, with treason for attending a private dinner hosted by his former cabinet colleague Mani Shankar Aiyar for a former Pakistan foreign minister. The result of all these capers: the Congress, which was facing oblivion, has risen from the ashes and emerged as the main Opposition party to challenge the BJP's hegemony.

It is not only the BJP that has lessons to learn from the Gujarat outcome. The Congress, under its newly elected president Rahul Gandhi, may have put up a spirited show, but it still lacks the killer instinct. Its party organisation is no match for the formidable set-up that Shah has put in place for the BJP. Rather than fight every election like the BJP does, as if the party's very existence hinges on the outcome, the Congress approach is languid, akin to preparing for a PhD thesis. Instead of waking up just before the polls in Gujarat, the party should have played the role of the Opposition right through the five years, steadily whittling away at the state government's credibility.

Photo: Vikram Sharma

While a rejuvenated Rahul has certainly brought the spark back, he has miles to go. Victories on social media do not translate into wins in the polling booth. For that, you need boots on the ground and last-mile connectivity with the voters. Rahul needs a phalanx of committed party leaders and workers to take on the might of the BJP in the coming assembly polls. The good sign is that, in the poll-bound states, he has worked steadily to build strong local leadership which has been reaching out to voters long before the notification of the election process. He also has to work out a cohesive strategy to form alliances that could give a united Opposition the numbers to effectively challenge the BJP.

In Gujarat, when the Congress played the caste card and formed alliances with community leaders, it had the BJP disoriented. The Sangh parivar, which had pushed Hindutva as a way of uniting the Hindu vote, was forced to fall back on caste considerations to bolster its chances. With the Ayodhya verdict expected in mid-2018, the BJP could use a favourable outcome to bring Hindutva back on the agenda. But Modi, who is considered a 'Hindu Hriday Samrat', is clearly not banking on either the temple or Hindutva appeal, or the caste game for the matter, to win both the state polls and the general election. The prime minister is acutely aware that the BJP may not be able to replicate its seat tally in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat which enabled it to win a clear majority in 2014. So the vikas card is being played to woo a broad spectrum of voters even as the BJP retains its core hardline Hindu support base. Modi should also address concerns about the growing intolerance across the country that his critics say he has ignored acting on.

For the development card to be effective, the big message coming from Gujarat is that Modi would have to focus doubly hard on economic growth. Particularly on addressing agrarian distress and employment. The recent rise in GDP numbers, after five quarters of falling growth, has come as a relief to the government. NITI Aayog chairman Rajiv Kumar believes that "the worst is behind us and we are slowly but surely growing from now on. We would reach 7.5 per cent by late next year." In agriculture, his advice is to shift emphasis from food grains and MSPs to involving farmers in the agro-processing value chain. For that, the government needs to invest massively in agricultural infrastructure, refurbishing mandis, including building storage and processing facilities to meet the needs. The government is even exploring liberating agriculture from market controls to enable farmers get remunerative prices for their produce.

To stimulate the economy and generate employment, Modi's aides are also talking of what they term "the wow factor". This essentially means working out schemes in labour-intensive sectors such as housing, tourism and textiles that can employ masses of people in the short run by removing roadblocks. Also a massive infrastructure drive of constructing roads, airports and expanding the rail network. There is also talk of focusing on exports, which is picking up, including extending the 12 per cent EPF subsidy to more sectors. The other area that requires urgent government attention is stimulating private investment by rapidly sorting out the NPA issue that has brought bank lending to almost a halt. "We are working on innovative solutions to tackle all these issues," says an official. Modi hinted as much when he talked of the Gujarat win being a mandate for reforms that could transform the country.

The prime minister should also focus on improving the implementation of the scores of schemes that he has initiated since he took charge. Many like the Direct Benefit Transfer Scheme, the LPG cylinder scheme, the LED bulb supply, the construction of toilets and provision of power supply to as yet unconnected villages have been widely appreciated and brought him rich electoral dividends. The fact that his government is so far untainted by corruption charges is a major positive. Modi is also seen as someone who is willing to correct errors rather than be paralysed by them. The GST modifications are a good indication of that. There is now a proposal to bring petrol under GST ensuring that states cannot overcharge consumers, and thereby bring down prices. This is expected to enthuse urban India, particularly the middle class, that has so far been disconnected over the GST process.

Despite the setbacks to the economy, the recent electoral wins, with caveats, indicate that Modi is still regarded as the best bet for rapid development. The prime minister remains the front-runner to win the 2019 elections provided he sticks to the straight and narrow path of vikas and does not allow the saffron hotheads to derail his vision.