What if the Browns end up with two picks in the top five of the 2018 NFL draft?
That is becoming an increasingly realistic possibility after the Texans lost again -- this time in a blowout at the hands of the Jaguars. At the moment the Texans' pick is projected to have the fifth-best average position, though that average spot is actually 6.3. There is a 41 percent chance it will land in the top five. The Browns already were virtually assured the No. 1 overall pick even before they lost to the Ravens on Sunday.
Each week, the Football Power Index (FPI) projects the order of next year's draft by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game location. FPI takes some time to run, but on Sundays we can produce a live projection that includes that day's results but does not incorporate changes to FPI ratings based on that day's performances. These projections are through Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games.
In some cases, the projected draft order will not match the current draft order. That's because FPI is considering the probability of outcomes that haven't yet occurred and, crucially, projecting strength of schedule at the end of the season, since that is a tiebreaker for draft order.
Beyond the Browns, the Colts slid ahead of the Giants for the No. 2 pick. Though Indianapolis has a better record than New York at the moment, FPI's projections (barely) give the Colts a better average draft position than the Giants. That's because the Colts are by far the worst team in football going forward and because the Giants have a slightly easier schedule remaining.
Below is FPI's projected order for the 2018 draft, based on each team's average draft position in the simulations. While each team's current record is listed below, remember that the order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games.
Cleveland Browns (0-14)
Indianapolis Colts (3-11)
New York Giants (2-12)
San Francisco 49ers (4-10)
Cleveland Browns (via Houston Texans, 4-10)
Chicago Bears (4-10)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9)
Cincinnati Bengals (5-9)
New York Jets (5-9)
Denver Broncos (5-9)