Gujarat: BJP won! BJP lost!

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has finally romp home in Gujarat, though with a thin margin. Should we describe it as the victory of the BJP or is it a successful survival attempt of the party? Though, the Congress failed to wrest power from the BJP, it really made the situation tense for its chief opposition. Now, the BJP will always remain on tender hooks for the next five years. The credit of bringing the situation to this far goes to the newly elected Congress President Rahul Gandhi. Had he not entered the fray whole-heartedly and taken on the BJP and particularly Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP would have sailed through very easily to run for the fifth consecutive term. But, the relentless efforts of Rahul in the last two and half months ensured that the BJP would not get an easy win.

Now, that the electioneering is over, and the verdict has also been announced, it’s time to sit back and think as to what went wrong with the ruling BJP and the challenger Congress. Surprisingly, both the BJP and the Congress had nearly same pluses and minuses. Looking at the advantages, the BJP has a well-oiled party net-work spread across the state. It works equally well in the rural and urban Gujarat. In addition, the political outfit is ably assisted and guided by the parent body, the Rashtriya Swayansevak Sangh, the parent organisation of the party. The RSS has its active workers all over. They keep the party alive and keep sending the party messages all over. Curiously though, the Congress lacks such ground net-work.

Though the party is the oldest Indian political organ with the history of over 131 years, and the state has produced many eminent leaders like Mahatma Gandhi, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel and Morarji Desai, the party has no leader having a state appeal. But, this shortcoming was covered by the support that the party has been receiving from downtrodden and the minority classes of the society. It only means that both the Congress and the BJP have near equal support base. While these elections showed that the BJP acquired 49.5 per cent votes, nearly three per cent more than the last elections, even the Congress improved its mass base by about four per cent.

Absence of State leaders

Both the parties have failed to produce state level leaders. The result was that Rahul had to camp in Gujarat to chalk out, run and monitor the election campaign all through. On the other hand, though the BJP is running government in Gujarat for over two decades and has sitting Chief Minister Vijay Rupani and his entire cabinet there, the election campaign was run by Narendra Modi himself. This is a sorry state of affairs. India is a quasi-federal union, where the states and the Centre have near equal powers and responsibilities. However, in Gujarat, except managing the day-to-day affairs, all major decisions, political and administrative, are run by the Delhi bosses, making the state party and the Government a mockery.

Modi addressed as many as 31 public meetings in Gujarat and similar numbers of meetings were addressed by BJP President and Modi’s close confidant Amit Shah. Should the head of the Union Government take such a keen interest in the state affairs? That question is raised in the media now. Considering this election was a matter of life and death for the BJP, particularly because it is the PM’s home-state, one can pardon the PM for over doing in his home state. However, if the party performs much below the expectations in the elections, the blame squarely comes on none else but the PM himself.

Surprisingly, Modi, who won the earlier on his cry for development, dumped the issue quietly and chose to take on Rahul and Congress on the issues of religion and relations with Pakistan. On the other hand, Rahul stuck to his guns and kept firing salvo against the ‘false promises’ of Modi and the BJP Governments. This move worked as in the absence of any developmental issue, the electorate was not much interested in the religious issues and Congress’s alleged alliance with enemy nations to defeat the BJP Government. The end result was that the state of issuelessness worked against the consolidation of votes in favour of the BJP.

Bringing three leaders together

Another major development that troubled the BJP decisively was Congress’s success in bringing three young leaders to campaign for the party publicly. Hardik Patel, the unquestionable leader of the Patidar community, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakor, both leading backward class and underprivileged communities. Hardik, being below 25, could not contest, however, the two others contested and won.

Their association with the Congress gave the much needed support from the lower strata of the society. Off course, the ‘Patidar Card’ of Hardik Patel did not work in many areas, however, other backward class and the Dalits who are leaderless for many decades found ‘leaders’ for themselves in Thakor and Mevani. Their vote bank came to help the Congress. Had the BJP wooed these three leaders, their vote tally would have been totally different. But the second, third rank state BJP leaders did not feel the need to get them with the ruling side and finally paid the price that was too dear. The Gujarat results have come as a much needed feather in the cap for Rahul, who is now elevated as the President of the Congress. This is the best Welcome Gift that the party could give him on his promotion.

Now, that the election favour is likely to be over in the next couple of days, let’s start our usual business. The next round of elections is coming in a couple of months, in any case.

The author is a political analyst and former Member of Parliament (RS).