NEW DELHI: Having won both Gujarat and Himachal assembly polls, BJP on Monday added two new feathers to its cap as the number of states the party now has a government in, has risen to 19, party chief
Amit Shah proudly declared at a press conference here after the results.
"In the next round there are elections in four states - Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Karnataka - which we will surely win," Shah said as he wrapped up the media interaction.
However, the underlying message of Monday's victory is derived from the heavy losses BJP incurred in Gujarat even as it scrapped through to form government for the sixth term in a row in the state that is home turf for Prime Minister
Modi and Shah himself. The depleted performance of BJP in its own backyard could only boost the confidence of its rivals whether it is Congress or any other regional party.
Of the four states that go for polls early next year, BJP's strength lies in Karnataka where it faces the incumbent Congress regime that is expected to put up a good fight. But since BJP has earlier had a government in this only southern state that it has a grip on, the party also has a strong leadership in former chief minister BS Yedyurappa.
BJP will have to wrest the other three states from rivals, even as a party that has little presence on the ground so far. But, with BJP governments in northeastern states like Assam and Manipur, it has a good chance of breaking into the neighboring states with its footprints growing there. Tripura is a tough battle where BJP will have to fight
CPM chief minister Manik Sarkar's popular image to overthrow the well-entrenched Left establishment in the state.
With typical anti-incumbency factors growing against BJP governments in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, which goes in for elections by the end of next year, it could be a tough battle if the Congress and its allies get stronger after the assurance they have got from the dent in BJP's armour in Gujarat.
The anti-incumbency factors against the
Narendra Modi government are also likely to get added to the BJP's kitty of troubles in facing an electorate, especially if the farmers's issues, demonetisation and GST-woes, slow economy, etc, pile up against it, as it seems to have impacted the major pockets in Gujarat.
Moving towards the 2019
Lok Sabha polls, BJP will also have to factor in alliances that the party may need to stitch, if it fails to get a straight majority that it did in 2014. In that scenario, states like
Tamil Nadu, where BJP may have to make friends with DMK (which is at present in the opposition camp, but is getting stronger) or even a BJD in Odisha (where BJP is unlikely to make it on its own) will have to be given serious thought and acted upon. In Kerala and West Bengal too, the party may have to look for friends to make up for numbers that it may lose in 2019, having saturated itself in stronghold states.
