BJP: Pulled back from the brink

Gujarat voted wisely, enabling the Prime Minister to face Parliament without embarrassment, yet cautioning him in no uncertain terms to sharpen up his act. A defeat would have rendered the centre unstable, but Gujarat kept faith with ‘apna Narendrabhai’, while giving Rahul Gandhi an encouraging pat on the shoulder.

It’s hard to see the Gujarat election results as an absolute win or loss for either party. The BJP continued its 22-year streak, beating anti-incumbency. But, its seat share was significantly attenuated, despite Modi. The Congress lost for the sixth straight time, but improved its seat share, again despite Modi.

That public opinion in Gujarat was against the BJP, for reasons that went beyond anti-incumbency, was no secret. Even BJP insiders freely admitted to the palpable discontent on the ground, owing largely to job and business losses in the wake of demonetiwsation and GST – policies of which Modi takes ownership.

In addition, farmers were justifiably upset at the free fall in the price of agricultural produce and the perception that Narmada waters were diverted to factories rather than fields. The Patels, of course, were out to punish the BJP for its arrogance and heavy-handedness in seeking to squish their agitation for reservations. All in all, it was the Congress’ election to lose – and it did.

In the end, voters set aside their grievances and gave their favourite son another chance. The BJP did well in South and Central Gujarat (except Tapi and Dangs). North Gujarat was mixed but it lost significant ground to the Congress in Saurashtra, with a complete washout in Amreli, Morbi and Gir Somnath. The Congress also breached its bastion in Kutch. The ST seats went largely to the Congress and its ally, the Bharatiya Tribal Party, while the SCs went half and half. The cities – Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot, Vadodra – remained faithful to the BJP, indicating a rural-urban divide.

BJP president Amit Shah’s electoral juggernaut was impressive, but finally, it was the Modi magic which did the trick. His strike rate, in terms of public meetings addressed and seats won, was near-perfect. Voters, however annoyed, credit him with purity of purpose – although his tactics during the campaign, of dubbing the Congress as anti-national and its leaders as being in cahoots with Pakistan, were hardly pure. Anyhow, his high voltage electioneering appears to have pulled the BJP back from the brink. Or perhaps, it was simply the devil you know versus the outlander you don’t.

For the business community of central and south Gujarat, it made sense to stick with Modi, so that economic reforms could go forward and hopefully, result in a long-term economic uptick. However angry at GST they may have been, they decided to take the long view and keep Narendrabhai at the helm.

Rahul Gandhi made a sterling effort, but even his best wasn’t quite good enough. He adopted the right strategy by talking exclusively about the economy and development (or lack of it), avoided personal attacks on the PM and presented himself as a good Hindu. But given his track record as a political dilettante, it was too much to expect that voters would accept him overnight as a credible alternative to Modi.

For one thing, Rahul did not articulate his vision for Gujarat. How would he fix GST? How would he create employment for Gujarat’s youth? How would he insulate farmers from the markets, when prices of agricultural commodities fell, and input costs spiralled? How would he address the Patidar issue? He understood the problems, but did not proffer a convincing solution.

Hardik Patel may have been its lead campaigner, or at least co-campaigner, but the Congress really has nothing to offer the Patidars. Certainly, it cannot give them reservations under the current legal statutes, a point admitted by Congress leader Mohansinh Rathwa. The Patels perhaps understood the short-term nature of the alliance with the Congress and were, thus, divided. As for the other two storm-troopers drafted by Rahul, OBC leader Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani, they won their seats, but didn’t manage to pull in votes from their respective communities.

Also, Rahul’s newfound Shivbhakti and predeliction for visiting temples proved unconvincing, in the light of his previous statements on ‘Hindu terror’. His janeu-dhari Hindu avatar came across as transparently opportunistic.

Finally, the Congress election managers were not a match for Shah, whose ‘fauj’ fanned across the state, with one worker assigned for every 50 voters.

So, Rahul commences his term as Congress president with a double whammy – Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. On the plus side, he has shown a fighting spirit – as opposed to whining – for the first time. By ejecting Mani Aiyar, he has proved himself a no-nonsense leader and also signalled his readiness to adapt the Congress strategy to the current political terrain. Small wonder he’s wound up being more popular on social media than ever before. Time to prep for the next round: Karnataka.

The author is a senior journalist with 35 years of experience in working with major newspapers and magazines. She is now an independent writer and author.