Gujarat Assembly Election Results 2017 LIVE updates: Lotus blooms in two states but rural-urban divide writ large in Modi's home state

BJP to send observers to Himachal, Gujarat to decide on CM pick

Speaking to press after the BJP Parliamentary meet, Union Health Minister JP Nadda said that the party will send Arun Jaitley and Saroj Pandey as observers to Gujarat. Similarly, Nirmala Sitharaman and Narendra Tomar will go to Himachal Pradesh to discuss about the leadership with party workers there. 

​How accurate were the exit poll predictions?

BJP's parliamentary board meeting begins, party to formally decide on CM face in Gujarat, Himachal

BJP's parliamentary board meeting begins, party to formally decide on CM face in Gujarat, Himachal

Congress made fun of vikas: Modi

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BJP may have won in Gujarat, but the Congress has not lost: Shashi Tharoor 

Narendra Modi concludes address amid chants of 'vikas hi jitega'

People rejected those who tried to sow venom of casteism: Modi

Congress' venomous campaign failed, Gujaratis should not get divided on caste lines: Modi

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"In past few months, some people tried to play some games. Even though you did not let them succeed but they won't stop their tacticts. So bear in mind that the unity of 6 crore Gujaratis is paramount. Because you contribute so much to the country's growth, it is your responsibility to net let the vikas engine derail amid divisive caste talks. And maintain your unity," Modi said. 

Gujarat win a matter of double joy for me: Modi

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that he was doubly happy at winning Gujarat elections as the opposing forces were trying to spread negativity. He said, "Their were talks that Modi has left now, but I am more than happy to see that the state leaders are working even harder for the people." 

Congress and other forces tried their best to defeat us: Modi

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"Congress and other forces tried their best to defeat us. When exit poll results came and they realised they couldn't do it. They started efforts to dampen our happiness. But when a single party wins each and every election one by one through democratic means, even their opponents should have the guts to accept defeat," Modi said. 

BJP is an exception even for poll pundits: Modi

If you don't work people will not accept you after five years: Narendra Modi

Election results prove India ready to transform: Narendra Modi

"During the campaign trail of Uttar Pradesh election, several people were saying that after demonetisation, BJP will be defeated. A similar narrative was played in Maharashtra civic polls also. Opposition said demonetisation and GST will kill BJP's chances. But now the entire nation is joining our vikas yatra. The results have proved that the country is ready to be transformed," Modi said. 

I want to thank the people of Gujarat, Himachal for choosing development: Narendra Modi's victory speech at BJP headquarters

Modi's Vikas Yatra is unstoppable: Amit Shah 

Amit Shah addresses BJP workers at party headquarters in Delhi

In Surat, BJP wins 15 out of 16 seats

Narendra Modi reaches BJP headquarters after party's victory in two states

Mamata Banerjee calls Gujarat a 'face saving' win for BJP

West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee said it's a moral defeat for the BJP despite the electoral victory. "It is a temporary and face-saving win, but it shows a moral defeat for BJP. Gujarat voted against atrocities, anxiety and injustice caused to the common people. Gujarat belled the cat for 2019," Banerjee said.

— PTI

A Congress victory in Vadnagar, Narendra Modi's hometown

Gujarat is grateful to Narendra Modi, says Chief Minister Vijay Rupani

See you in the campaign trail in 2018, tweets Congress

NOTA garners 5 lakh votes in Gujarat

'None of the Above' (NOTA) made its Assembly election debut in Gujarat, and over five lakh voters chose the option. NOTA got more votes in the western state than established parties like BSP and NCP put together!

BJP's win due to 'vikas' and 'vishwas': Devendra Fadnavis

BJP won due to Congress' foolishness: Shankersinh Vaghela

"Rahul Gandhi came to Gujarat as a guest. It was due to local leaders that Congress failed in Gujarat.Congress’ graph has come down ever since I left the party. If I had been in the Congress, it would have won the elections. A grand old party like Congress compromised with local leaders. It was not Rahul Gandhi's fault but fault of local leaders. Congress had a great chance but they missed out," Vaghela told CNN-News18. 

People reposing faith in us for sixth time in row, commendable: Vijay Rupani

Speaking to the press Rupani said that to win an election for the sixth time straight is no small feat. He said that the party's vote share has increased and despite the tally of seat share leaning in favour of the Congress, the BJP maintained a lead of over 8 percent. 

He said that the party's unwaivered strategy based on development, despite Congress taking the discourse so low is commendable. 

With Gujarat, Himachal wins, Lotus blooms in 14 states across India

How North Gujarat Turned Saving Grace for BJP to Compensate For Angry Saurashtra, Kutch

The BJP on Monday fought off the Congress to retain power in Gujarat for the sixth consecutive time, but not without losing ground in some of its bastions. In Saurashtra, BJP was trailing far behind Congress and in Central Gujarat, both parties saw a neck-and-neck see-saw battle. But what gave the BJP an edge in the election was its decisive lead in North Gujarat, where Hardik Patel’s Patidar agitation was expected to harm the party the most. 

That North Gujarat is where PAAS pulled the biggest crowds is no surprise. Hardik Patel belongs to the Kadva Patel community. However, the Kadva Patels are small in numbers as compared to the Leuva Patels, who are concentrated in North Gujarat. 

Gujarat CM Vijay Rupani retains Rajkot seat with over 57,000 votes, nullifying Congress' initial lead 

BJP's Saurabh Patel wins in Botad

BJP hits halfway mark of 92, but falls well short of exit poll predictions

The BJP has hit the majority mark in the crucial election of Gujarat, prompting the party to quickly credit Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his policies for the victory.  The party has managed to win 92 seats in the 182-seat Gujarat Assembly, thus hitting the halfway mark.

The BJP has won every election since 1995. However, it was out of power for a couple of years due to party infighting and rebellion by Shankersinh Vaghela. The party came back to power in 1998, and has ruled uninterrupted since then.

Being Modi's home state. it was significant for the BJP to retain Gujarat and Shah had put the target at 150 seats. However, with the fierce fight put up by the Congress, the BJP is unlikely to reach that goal.

While giving a clear victory of BJP, the exit polls for Gujarat had predicted that the saffron party will get over 100 seats.

Congress' Paresh Dhanani wins from Amreli

Rahul Gandhi concedes defeat, says proud of Congress workers for fighting polls with 'dignity'

BJP vote share increased despite divisive politics; our win still commendable: Shah

"Those who function on dynastic politics, populist policies and divisive policies should learn a lesson from there defeat," Shah said. On a question about his 150 seat target in the polls, Shah said I accept that the seat share have gone down but it is because of the low level of campaign run by Congress. "They tried to stir emotions on the basis of the caste. Now caste system will leave India in its due course," Shah said. 

Gujarat assembly speaker Ramanlal Vora lost from Dasada

Congress' 'election outsourcing' strategy failed: Amit Shah

Shah said that the people of Gujarat have voted for us despite the heavily divisive and casteist campaign of Congress. He said that the Congress party tried to outsource its election to other leaders but it failed. He also pointed out that the party's vote share has gone up slightly even if it lost some seats as compared to the last elections. 

BJP's victory is a win for PM's policies: Amit Shah

"This victory is a win of politics of performance over the dynastic politics and populist policies," Shah said. He said that Modi has been trying to free the people of the country from the ulcers of casteism, and divisive politics. And our win has proved that we are succeeding,' Shah said. 

BJP press conference after Gujarat, Himachal win; Amit Shah congratulates party workers

We fought on people's agenda, but they never replied to legit questions: Ashok Gehlot

"We fought the eletions on people's basic issues and they evaded answers on every issue that mattered, whether it was development or Amit Shah's son or governance," Gehlot said. 

Congress leaders address press conference after election results

BJP's diminished stature in Gujarat suggests, 2019 won't be a cakewalk: TRS

The lower-than-expected poll performance of the BJP in Gujarat suggests that the 2019 general elections are not going to be a cakewalk to the NDA lead party, a senior TRS leader said on Monday.

"The key takeaway (of Gujarat Assembly elections) is it's not (going to be) a cakewalk for the BJP any more in 2019 election," Telangana Rashtra Samiti Floor Leader in Lok Sabha, AP Jithender Reddy told PTI.

"They (BJP) have to basically again check their administration," he said.

Though the BJP is set to return to power in the western state, Reddy saw the electoral verdict as being a setback to the party.

"Definitely (it's a setback). 103 seats (the projected BJP tally this afternoon) is not coming back to power (it should have been bigger number of seats)," he said.

BJP wins Porbandar seat with a sleek margin

BJP' Babubhai Bhimabhai Bokhiriya won the Porbandar seat defeating Congress' Arjunbhai Devabhai Modhvadiya with a margin of 1855 votes. 

EVM bashing should stop now, says former CEC TS Krishnamurthy

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Former chief election commissioner TS Krishnamurthy said on Monday that electronic voting machines (EVMs) are the "real winner" in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh elections and their "bashing" should stop now. When asked over the remarks in some quarters that the EVMs are the "real winner", as results of the two Assembly elections are being declared, he said, "I agree."

Amid a raging debate over the trustworthiness of EVMs, he had said earlier this month that they are credible, robust and reliable, and expressed his "unwavering faith" in them and their "infallibility".

BJP's seat share declines but vote share inches up

The BJP had scored 47 percent votes in the 2012 elections bagging 115 seats. This year it is expected to be restrained at 99 seats as per latest trends. The party's vote share, however, has improved slightly as it bagged 49.1 percent votes. 

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​PM Modi tweets on Gujarat, Himachal win, says bow to people for supprting politics of good governance

Amit Shah reaches BJP HQ amid rousing welcome

Amit Shah congratulates BJP workers in Gujarat for party's win, says people chose vikaswad against vanshwad

Hardik Patel blames EVMs for BJP win, says saffron party may have lost if elections were fair

Amit Shah to brief press at 3.30 pm

Congress leads in 7 seats dominated by Koli community

'BJP win doesn't mean Patidar aandolan will face a set back'

Congress has improved its performance. But that does not matter for us. He said that the BJP has indeed won but that does not nullify his agitation and efforts. He said the quota demand is not just his but of thousands of people in Gujarat. 

He also vowed to continue his fight against the "money power and arrogance" of the BJP. 

Results show people have stirred, our agitation will continue: Hardik Patel

Hardik Patel said that if ATMs could be hacked, then so could the EVMs. He said that due to all his efforts, the people of the state have at least stirred up, which is visible in form of the dent in BJP vote share. He said that the reports of EVM tampering should be looked into. 

He also said that he will continue his agitation raising the issues of farmers, Patels and the poor people. 

BJP is winning by small margins in several seats; EVM tampering allegations should be looked into: Hardik Patel

Hardik Patel addresses press, says Gujarat's people stirred against BJP

BJP win unfortunate, says Jignesh Mewani

Modi a dictator, has put his personal secretary in charge of EC, says protestor at anti-EVM rally

BJP retains stronghold in urban seats, Congress matches pace in rural constituencies

Congres spokesperson Pawan Khera says it's a 'proud moment' for the party

Congress heavyweight Shaktisinh Gohil loses election from Mandvi

BJP crosses 92 seat maority mark in Gujarat 

BJP HQ being decked up to welcome Narendra Modi; PM to visit party office between 4 and 6 pm

Workers are decorating the auditorium at the lawn of BJP headquarters to welcome Modi and Amit Shah — the architects of today's dual victory. There is constant sloganeering going on at the premises. 

" After all it's celebration time for BJP. Modiji has ensured victory of Gujarat and HP. 2018 and 2019 will be ours" proudly announced a group of young BJP workers.

Scanning machines have also been set up at BJP headquarter. Delhi police and security personnel are taking charge of the premises as PM will arrive at 4 pm. Women workers are raising slogans — Mahilaon Ka Shashaktikaran (women empowerment), Jai Sri Ram, Jai Sri Ram. Senior party leaders and Ministers have also started arriving.

Gujarat Minister Chimanbhai Sapariya trailing from Jamjodhpur seat

BJP's tally down to 98 according to Election Commission site, swing seats may still spring a surprise

Rahul Gandhi scored a zero on opening innings: Goa CM Manohar Parrikar on BJP win

Psephologist, political activist Yogendra Yadav's three lessons to the Congress on losing Gujarat

1. The Congress cannot substitute organisational strength at grassroots level with last minute hawabazi, Yadav said on massive Congress campaigning in the past month. 
2. The party must understand it cannot borrow other people's movements. It cannot piggyback on OBC or Dalit leaders' agitations and popularity and hope to win
3. The Congress cannot battle the kind of naked communalism unleashed by the BJP with the sort of surreptitious casteism it tried to use, as told to CNN-News18.  

Gujarat Constituency wise updates

KANKREJ -  KIRTI SINH VAGHELA (BJP)
VANSDA - ANANTKUMAR PATEL - (INC)
DHARAMPUR - ARVIND PATEL - (BJP) 

BJP clean sweeps Surat winning 12 out of 12 seats in trader's town

Meanwhile... Congress workers sit on dharna near party HQ's raise slogans against EVM tampering 

According to an update by CNN-News18, Congress party workers are alleging that the voting machines were rigged in around 90 swing seats to sway the election in BJP's favour. Hundreds of party workers were seen carrying placards against the BJP and Election Commission. 

The tired old 'why Narendra Modi can’t win this time' narrative is set to bomb again

With the Narendra Modi-led BJP clearly in the lead, this election too seems to have followed an old, familiar script: "The why Modi cannot win this time" script.

When the campaign begins, the outcome looks utterly unpredictable. As the electioneering progresses, as Modi gets aggressive, his critics shore up expectations of something incredible round the corner. Commentators discover a variety of factors that will ensure the BJP’s loss. As counting begins, it’s time for, not climax, but anti-climax.

Within no time, everybody realises, of course, this is what was going to happen in any case. Gujarat elections, in short, begin and also proceed like an unputdownable whodunit thriller, but end like a good old-fashioned romance. Frederick Forsyth and Jane Austen in one volume.

BJP's tally hovers around 101, Congress likely to get 76 seats

According to the latest trends on the EC website, Congress has won 15 seats and is leading in 61 constituecies. The BJP is still in the winning league with victory on 17 seats and a lead in 84 seats.  

BJP's Jitu Vaghani wins from Bhavnagar West

Celebration time at BJP headquarters

For BJP workers, it is the time to celebrate. Blowing of conches, beating of drums, waving of BJP flags and bursting of crackers outside the BJP headquarters at 11 Ashoka Road, gives a glimpse of a festive atmosphere. The crowd of the BJP workers gathered outside the party office is highly energetic. They have even erected a wall of victory, where BJP workers are leaving there signatures. 

Delhi BJP vice-president Jaiprakash told Firstpost that by putting signature on the wall, the people are becoming a part of Narendra Modi's Vikas Yatra.

WINNING | Shailesh Mehta Sotta wins Dabhoi

BJP candidate Shailesh Mehta Sotta wins Dabhoi Assembly Constituency in Vadodara defeating Congress leader Siddharth Patel. Sotta is the man who made the anti-Muslim statement

Election Commission's latest numbers

According to EC's latest figures, BJP is leading in 91 seats and has claimed victory in 10 seats. Congress, on the other hand, is leading in 69 seats and has won seven seats.

Fiscal situation, GST, inflation to impact stock markets hereon

Rakesh Arora, Managing Director and Head of Research, Macquarie Capital Securities says that the markets will continue to be in a stable mode as the results so far show that the BJP is leading. "A positive outcome will not push up the markets but a negative outcome would have been for the markets," said Arora.
 

The markets will look at the fiscal situation, GST collection figures and inflation (besides interstate changes), earnings among other things which will be the key drivers of the market hereon, Arora said.

Winning Candidates

KALOL - BALDEVJI THAKOR - Congress 
OLPAD - PATEL MUKESHBHAI - BJP
SAVARKUNDLA - PRATAP DUDHAT - Congress
THAKKARBAPA NAGAR - VALLABHBHAI KAKADIYA - BJP
AMRELI - PARESH DHANANI- Congress
KALAVAD - MUSADIYA PRAVINBHAI - Congress
RADHANPUR - ALPESH THAKOR - Congress
PATAN - KIRITKUMAR PATEL - Congress
SIDHPUR - CHANDANJII THAKOR - Congress
DEDIAPADA - VASAVA MAHESHBHAI - BTP
GARBADA - CHANDRIKABEN BARIYA - Congress
DWARKA - PABUBHA VIRAMBHA MANEK - BJP
KHAMBHALIA - AHIR VIKRAMBHAI - Congress
VATVA - PRADIPSINH JADEJA - BJP
MORVA HADAF - KHANT BHUPENDRASINH - IND
GANDHIDHAM - HESHWARI MALTI - BJP

Change of leadership for Congress would be good for BJP, I had already predicted this: Adityanath

People have rejected divisive politics of Congress, this win is due to the dynamic leadership of BJP and the hard work of BJP workers, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath said. "Maine pehle hi kaha tha ki Congress ka netritve badalna BJP ke liye shubh sanket hoga," Adityanath said in an obvious jibe at Rahul Gandhi taking over as Congress party president. 

Jo jeeta wohi sikandar: Smriti Irani

"It is a matter of happiness for us, this is the victory of development," says Union Minister Smriti Irani. When asked about Congress giving a tough fight she said, "Jo jeeta wohi sikandar. It is victory of every booth worker's hard work and the people who trusted development."

Winning Gujarat ensures a stable market, say experts

The Gujarat elections were not seen as just another state elections. A win in the state would have been seen as a win for Modi's central policies and bold reforms, says Arvind Singhal, chairman and managing director of Technopak Advisors based in Delhi. The leads so far is comforting for Modi and his broad appeal, he believes.
 
Winning Gujarat ensures that there will be continuity in reforms and that is what the market wants — continuity and stabiity.  As far as Himachal Pradesh is concerned, it is a minor state both economically and politically, Singhal said. "The Gujarat elections has reassured the markets." The market received a setback early but that was because the party was shown as trailing by various TV channels, Singhal said.
 
This is the last major elections for the party and the next elections in major states of Karnataka, Rajasthan and Karnataka are all close to the general elections and won't really matter to the party. With the the Gujarat elections out of the way, the market will be positive and steady growth is expected till general elections, said Singhal.

Hardik-Jignesh-Alpesh troika helped Congress or cost them the elections, asks BJP's Ram Madhav

BJP's Ram Madhav attacked Congress over alleged caste politics. In a tweet, Madhav said, "Casteist agenda of Hardik, Jignesh, Alpesh troika has helped Congress or cost it the election? Congress has to search for answers coolly after all the details come out. BJP, in its 5th consecutive victory, will celebrate but candidly analyse too."

From Kutiyana, NCP candidate and the infamous son of Santokben Jadeja (also known as the Godmother) Kandhalbhai Jadeja has won. 

Winning BJP and Congress candidates

TALALA - BARAD BHAGVANBHAI - Congress
SURAT WEST - PURNESH MODI - BJP
LATHI - VIRAJIBHAI THUMMAR - Congress
DANILIMDA - SHAILESH PARMAR - Congress
UNA - VANSH PUNJABHAI - Congress
SOJITRA - PUNAMBHAI PARMAR - Congress
NARANPURA - KAUSHIKBHAI PATEL- BJP
NAVSARI - PIYUSHBHAI DESAI - BJP
BHARUCH - PATEL DUSHYANTBHAI - BJP
GHATLODIA - BHUPENDRABHAI PATEL - BJP

A populist 2018 Budget? 
 

The markets expectedly opened lower and the NIFTY was 200 points down and the Sensex 800 points down. "The initial panic has subsided and now the markets are in a recovery mode," said Rikesh Parikh, vice-president market strategy at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. 
 
Parikh felt the government is 'safe' with both Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat in the saddle. Had there been a loss in Gujarat, government's policies would have been blamed. Parikh says the 2018 Budget could have been a populist one. But now that the coast seems to be clear for the BJP, the government can be seen to take an aggressive stance in the coming budget, he added.

Jignesh Mevani wins from Vadgam constituency

Winning list 

Umbergaon - Ramanlal Patkar - BJP
Valsad - Bharatbhai Patel - BJP 
Gondal - Jadeja Geetaba - BJP

Surendranagar: BJP is leading in 3 out of 5

Out of five seats in Surendranagar, BJP is leading in 3 seats with a very thin margin on two – Wadhwan by 657 votes and Dasada by 137 votes — and Limdi by 5,100 while Congress leads in two with a comfortable margin – Chotila (6700) and Dhrangadara (3700).

EC Official trends: BJP leading on 105 seats, Congress on 69

Winning list

Porbandar - Babubhai Bokhriya - BJP
Gandevi - Nareshbhai Patel - BJP 
Maninagar - Sureshbhai Patel - BJP
Asarwa - Pradipbhai Parmar - BJP
Anklav - Amit Chavda - Congress

Congress' Arjun Modhwadia trailing by 1,800 votes from Porbandar 

Election Commission's official numbers:  BJP leading on 101 seats, Congress on 74, Bhartiya Tribal Party on 2, NCP on 1 & Independent candidates on 3 seats

Charisma of Modi intact, markets will continue to be positive
 
It is clear that the BJP will be forming the government in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh.  The markets were volatile in the morning as it was reacting to early news of the BJP and Congress tally of the results, says Paras Bothra, Research head of equities at Ashika Stock Broking. The markets recovered once there was a clarity on the BJP numbers and it recovered sharply once channels started calling a BJP win, he said.
 
Bothra feels the markets are confident and in a stable space. The markets will be more positive in the next few days, he says. The charisma of Modi is going strong and he is not losing its charm is evident by the results so far, Bothra said.
 

Gujarat Congress office wears a deserted look

BJP leading in 98, Congress in 73

BJP workers celebrate in Delhi

Gujarat seat projection: 11:00 AM update

Preliminary list of winning candidates

Ellisbridge  - Rakeshbhai Shah (BJP) 

Khadia - Imran Yusufbhai (INC)

Limkheda - Shaileshbhai Bhabhor (BJP)

Akota - Seemaben Mohile (BJP)

Karjan - Satishbhai Patel (BJP)

Karanj - Ghoghari Pravinbhai (BJP)

EC official tally: BJP leading in 100 seats

Will form government in Gujarat and Himachal: Rajnath Singh

WATCH: Modi flashing the victory sign at Parliament 

Congress candidate updates

LEADING: Arjun Modhvadiya of Congress leading from Porbandar after 10 rounds of voting.

TRAILING: Shaktisinh Gohil of Congress trailing from Mandvi seat. 

Seat trajectory at 10.45 am

Prime Minister Narendra Modi flashes the victory signs

More wins: So far Congress has won 2 seats 

Imran Yusufbhai of Congress wins from Jamalpur-Khadia
Shaileshbhai Bhabhor of BJP wins from Limkheda

Gujarat at 104: Congress at 75

Ultimately BJP is going to win: BJP leader Nitin Patel

BJP leads in 97 seats: Election Commission

Market will continue to stay confident 

"Judging by the results that are out so far, there are two messages for the BJP," says Deven Choksey, managing director, KR Choksey Investment Managers. The party will now have to ponder the initiatives it has taken so far and what has been the result on the ground so far, he adds.

"The other message coming out of the Gujarat election leads is that there is a need to instal a strong leadership in the state," says Choksey. Evidently, the current leadership is not seen as effective, which is what the results indicate.

The market will not be concerned about the issues pertaining to seats won or lost. If the party scores in Gujarat, and even if it is not a sweeping victory, the stock market will continue to repose confidence in it.  The BJP will have to review its policy decisions. But where the market is concerned, there is no credible alternative to the party, Choksey states.

LEADING | Jignesh leads by 7,000 votes

BJP candidate Bhupendra Patel leads by 20,000 votes on Ghatlodia seat in Ahmedabad. Independent candidate leads by 2,000 votes on Tharad seat of flood-affected Banaskantha. Jignesh Mevani leads by 7000 votes on Vadgam seat.

LEADING | Rupani leads by 7,600 votes from Rajkot

Rupani is leading by 7,600 votes from Rajkot West constituency, at the end of counting in round 3. The elections for 182-seat Assembly were held on 9 and 14 December, after an acrimonious campaign, which was dominated by a face-off between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi.

LEADING | Jignesh Mevani 

TRAILING | Shaktisinh Gohil 

Jignesh Mevani leads by more than 6,000 votes, while Shaktisinh Gohil is trailing in Mandvi of Kutch District. In Gadhada constituency Atmaram Parmar from BJP leads. From Botad, DM Patel leads.

The BJP now firmly in the saddle…can it still make a late surge?

Lead trends of have yet again changed. The BJP is past majority mark of 92 and is now firmly in saddle at 103 leads. Trends from all sources indicate that BJP is going to form government in Gujarat, perhaps with slightly reduced margin, or maybe not.

As these leads/trends emerge after about two hours of counting, these trends may be considered stabilise, though the chances of a late BJP surge are not yet ruled out. The BJP could very well use, whatever may be the margin of victory, the Hindi phrase `Jo jita wohi sikandar’ and the Congress spokespersons could have a face saver in terms of increased vote percentage.

In another an hour or two we will know whether the BJP is able to cross its previous mark 115. But whatever the end numbers, the fact remains if BJP manages to win it would be a huge booster for the party and its supreme leader – that despite two big bold disruptive moves, GST and demonetisation, as also 22 years of anti-incumbency, his party could still hold on in Gujarat. The BJP has another reason to feel relieved and happy at this hour – chief minister Vijay Rupani is leading again.

Markets will continue to be volatile for a couple of days: Experts
 

The volatile nature of the stock markets will continue for a couple of days, says AK Prabhakar, Head of Reserach, IDBI Capital. Once the results are out, whichever way it goes, stocks will rally, he told Firstpost. Once that is done, Prabhakar added that the markets may gradually touch 10,800 by the first week of January. 

"There is a huge local liquidity flow which will balance the market at lower levels. If market correction happens in a big way 5-6 percent, there are huge funds waiting to buy into the market," he said.
 

If the BJP wilns, it is victory for the government's policy. But he does not think that should change much as the victory in the home state is expected, Prabhakar said. However, if the BJP loses the election, it will go in for a course correction, he said, like the party did when it lost the Bihar elections..

Tally till 10.00 am

BJP internal assessment puts their tally at 131

After the initial shock of the Congress threatening to nose ahead of the BJP, the trends are now settling down. CNN-News18 has already called the Gujarat election in favour of the BJP. At ten am the BJP is on 103 leading, a comfortable gap of 27 from the Congress. But insiders in the party are not sweating yet. According to sources in the BJP, its campaign managers have predicted a tally of 131 for the party, 64 in the first phase and 67 in the second. So, the BJP will now be looking for a twist in the tail.

Markets crashing a wake-up call for Narendra Modi: CEO, SAMCO securities

While the BJP may win with a narrow margin, it is a positive sign from an economic and market perspective, says  Jimeet Modi, CEO, SAMCO Securities. The BJP may be compelled to make policies with consensus and their current way of policy-making will have to stop. The BJP will make sure public considerations are taken into count before policy making is done in future, he said.

“The election is a wake-up call which will make 2018 budget a  more inclusive one. The BJP will make sure that they take adequate steps in 2018 budget so that it does not go down like it has happened this year,” Modi said.

Modi advised investors said, any fall into the markets should be bought into.

Congress: We will form govt in Gujarat

"We will form government in Gujarat. We will wait for final figures but even if the BJP wins, we are the real winners," Congress' Priyanka Chaturvedi.

BJP leads in 103 - Congress in 75

If early trends are to be believed, the BJP is all set to form the government in Gujarat — for the sixth time. As per trends, the BJP was leading in 101 seats in Gujarat, while the Congress was ahead in 78. Chief Minister Vijay Rupani is now back in the lead against Congress leader Indranil Rajyaguru in Rajkot West, but Deputy CM Nitin Patel is still trailing in Mehsana where the Jignesh Mevani factor is at play, while its state unit chief Jitu Vaghani is also behind in Anand.

Vijay Rupani leading by 7,600 votes from Rajkot West

Nervousness grips stock markets

As mentioned a while ago, the stock markets are disappointed with the latest trends coming from Gujarat. Punters were betting on a clear, huge BJP win but with the Congress offering a tough fight to the incumbent, sheer nervousness has gripped the bourses. The benchmark sensex tanked 800 points in the intrad-day market before recovering later. This is largely a knee-jerk reaction and things can return to normalcy if BJP pulls off a victory at the end of the day.

BJP takes lead again; Sensex recovers 400 points

BJP's Jitu Vaghani, contesting from Bhavnagar West seat, leading by 2,200 votes, The Indian Express reported. As BJP takes lead again, markets take comfort. Sensex recovers almost 400 points, now down around 300 points.

Trends til 9.30 am

Rupani, Nitin Patel both trailing 

Chief minister Vijay Rupani and his deputy Nitin Patel are both trailing in Gujarat. Patel's loss was largely foreseen because of Patidar anger in Mehsana, the epicentre of the Hardik Patel led movement.

If Rupani loses, it will be due to the daring and sang froid of his opponent Indraneel Rajyaguru. I had met Rajyaguru in the middle of the campaign and was surprised by his confidence. Chewing tobacco, reclining in his seat with his feet up, he boldly predicted his victory. 

Rajyaguru had left his Rakkot (East) constituency and shifted to the adjoining Rajkot (West) a year ago. "The moment I heard Rupani is the new CM, I declared my candidature."

If Rajyaguru wins, he will be hailed as the great gambler of Gujarat.

BJP's Nitin Patel trailing by over 3000 votes from Mehsana

Election Commission's official numbers

Gujarat polls will set agenda for stock market

What happens in Gujarat today can set the agenda for stock markets in the near term.

Traders will be praying for the exit poll predictions to come true and BJP wave continues in Gujarat.That's because if exit polls get it right and the public mandate favours BJP, that would be an endorsement of Modi's policies and signal political stability. On the contrary, if pollsters get it wrong, there can be a short-term bloodbath in the bourses.

BJP leads in 2 seats Porbandar and Bhavnagar East

According to The Indian Express, the BJP leading in 2 seats, Porbandar and Bhavnagar East. Congress also leading in 2 seats, Mandvi and Nadiad.

Purushottam Solanki leading from Bhavnagar Rural with 2637 votes

BJP candidate Purshottam Solanki, who is also a Gujarat cabinet minister leads with 2637 votes on Bhavnagar Rural. Former Patidar quota leader Lalit Vasoya is leading his BJP rival Harilal Patel after first round of counting of votes.

Vijay Rupani is trailing in Rajkot West

Chief Minister Vijay Rupani is trailing in his constituency of Rajkot West. This will be a matter of great concern for the BJP because this is a bell-weather seat. If the incumbent chief minister is in trouble, can the portents for the rest of the state be different?

Urban Seats | BJP ahead in 31 seats while Congress in 10 seats

In urban seats, BJP is ahead in 31 seats while Congress in 10 seats. However, its a close-knit fight in rural areas, where the Congress is ahead. BJP is traditionally seen as an urban party, with the outer regions preferring Congress.

BJP touches 67 seats at 9.00 am; Congress at 56

The fight for Gujarat has heated up as the BJP touches 67 seats at 9:00 am, while Congress is ahead in 56 seats. The halfway mark, which will decide which party gets to rule Gujarat, is set at 92 in the 182-member Assembly.

Gujarat trajectory of leads and wins

Congress angered its cadre by relying too much on Alpesh, Jignesh

Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani the “two Young Turks” who joined Congress are trailing in their respective constituencies, Radhanpur and Vadgam. While touring these two constituencies,  had reported that they were on sticky wicket and could lose elections.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi had placed too trust on the two. Alpesh was hyped as a OBC leader who would bring substantive chunk of the 40 per cent voters in Gujarat and Jignesh would tilt Dalit votes in Congress’ favour.

Though the two had carefully chosen their constituencies, weighing the caste factor and the presence of sizeable Muslim voters, after talking to a cross section of voters in both the constituencies, I could feel that they had miscalculated. The Congress possibly had gone by the media hype around them. Alpesh was given 10 seats by the Congress, which had angered its party workers. Jignesh ran JNU-style campaigning placing excessive thrust on Muslim voters.

LEADING | Jignesh and Alpesh are leading now from Vadgam and Radhanpur constituencies, respectively

Both Dalit leaders, Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor, are now leading from Vadgam and Radhanpur constituencies, respectively.

Mevani is contesting as an independent candidate, with the support from Congress, while Thakor is a candidate for the grand old party.

TRAILING | Shaktisinh Gohil from Mandavi

Former Gujarat Congress chief, Shaktisinh Gohil, is trailing from his seat of Mandavi, Kutch. 

The Muslim-dominated constituency has 2.24 lakh voters, where 50,000 are Muslims, followed by 31,000 Dalits, 25,000 Patidars and 21,000 Rajputs. Gohil, the 57-year-old Rajput leader, considered by many as the party's chief ministerial choice, is fighting against BJP's new face Virendrasinh Jadeja, who is also a Rajput.

Jignesh and Alpesh trailing

Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor are trailing from Vadgam and Radhanpur constituencies, respectively. Mevani is contesting as an independent candidate, with the support from Congress, while Thakor is a candidate for the grand old party.

LEADING | BJP leads in 50 seats compared to Congress' 41

Trends at 8:40 am, show BJP leading in 50 seats as compared to Congress' 41. The halfway mark, which will decide which party gets to rule Gujarat, is set at 92 in the 182-member Assembly. In the 2012 elections, the BJP had bagged 119 seats, while the Congress had managed 57 seats.

Alpesh and Jignesh trailing: Not good news for Congress

The Congress party fought the election using three props: Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh.

The first not old enough to content an election and the other two, if the early trends hold, who might struggle to hold their own. This cannot be good news for the Congress which put a lot of store on the power of the caste combination these three youngsters brought to the battle to outgun the BJP’s Hindutva. But if Jignesh and Alpesh can’t win their own seats, will they be able to influence any of the other seats?

EVM tinkering row ahead of counting nothing new

Like failed political analysts, parties also look for an excuse to explain away their reverses. Right from word go, the Opposition in Gujarat began with a bravado but with caveat — if EVMs are not tinkered with. But this is nothing new. Recall Lalu Yadav's proclamation in 1995 elections when he said "ballot boxes will produce Djinn". And this created big controversy.

What did he mean by "Djinn"? people ask. His rivals interpreted it as "rigging". Of course when the results came in, Lalu was seen to have won, obviously  with  tacit the help of "Djinn". Similarly remember BJP spokesman GVL Narasimha Rao's loud protest over possibility of EVM tampering after the BJP's defeat in 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

Even LK Advani endorsed the proposition that the EVMs are not temper-proof.  So don't worry if you hear a big noise about tinkering of EVMs in wake of today's results.

BJP leading in 27 seats, Congress in 12

Trends at 8:30 am say BJP is leading in 27 seats as compared to Congress' 12. The halfway mark, which will decide which party gets to rule Gujarat, is set at 92 in the 182-member Assembly. In the 2012 elections, the BJP had bagged 119 seats, while the Congress had managed 57 seats.

I assure you that there can be no tampering with the EVMs: AK Joti

CEC AK Joti told ANI that all arrangements were made in Gujarat by Chief Electoral officer of the state at all places in counting halls for the state assembly elections. "I assure you that there can be no tampering with the EVMs."

Speaking on the EVM controversy, Joti said, "Questions being raised about EVMs have already been answered by us in the media. VVPATs were there in every polling stations in Gujarat, which enabled voters to see whom they voted for, so issues being raised aren't right. I assure that EVMS cannot be tampered with."

Ex-CEC SY Quaraishi on controversies over EVMs

"VVPAT machines are in use now. There is no scope for controversies anymore. If there is confusion between counting of votes and paper slips, then paper slips will prevail. Hence, there can be no confusion.” He further adds that every party has questioned EVMs. "Nothing new in that, but VVPAT is the answer. EVMs and VVPATs will work together, so if anything doubtful happens, it can be cross checked," he said.

Hindutva element is back in Gujarat, says Shankar Aiyar

"The glue that held Gujarat together for 25 years was Hindutva. In the past 3 years, during the Rupani and Patel regime, there was a general disgruntlement. The Hindutva element has now been brought back," says political analyst and author Shankar Aiyar.

Overall Gujarat: Early trends

BJP: 22 

Congress: 10

Early trends from Surat

Out of 16 seats, BJP is leading in 10. Congress has still not opened their account in Surat

EVM have become punching bag of losers

The EVM has become the favourite punching bag of losers. When you can’t blame your leader and your ability to win votes, blame it on EVM. Even before the first vote could be counted, the Congress and its ally Hardik Patel started blaming it on EVM tampering.

The Congress losing would mean that Rahul Gandhi had no appeal in Gujarat and the potential of his three allies, the so called young turks —  Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakore — has been overhyped. The Congress’s nervousness had become apparent when it called the EC and CEC names  – “captive frontal organization of BJP” etc — after Narendra Modi cast his vote and walked on foot and waved at the crowds.

They went to the Supreme Court urging it to put a stay on counting till VVPT and EVM votes are matched.

South Gujarat and Saurashtra: Early trends

Vijay Rupani is comfortably ahead, early trends show. According to News18, in South Gujarat and Saurashtra region, the BJP is leading in 14 seats while Congress maintained its numbers at four. 

Even though these are very early trends, it will definitely bolster the saffron party's spirits. 

Then why is Congress raising EVM manipulation post-voting? 

The Congress tried to raise this bogey before and during voting but failed. The party raised a shindig during the first phase on 9 December saying EVMs were being manipulated by the BJP during voting using Bluetooth devices.

The Election Commission instantly killed the rumours by demonstraing then and there that bluetooth devices can’t breach the EVMs. So that’s that. Whoever wins today will not be because they managed to work the EVMs but they managed to work on the ground better. On to the trends now….they have started trickling in.

Why is Congress’s claim on EVM manipulation even more flaky this time round?

For two reasons. One, as just pointed out a while ago, the fidelity of the EVM machines has been enhanced twice over with the introduction of the VVPAT. Now there is absolutely no way of the voter not knowing if the machine has been manipulated. Two, the timing of the Congress’ claim about manipulation.

The Congress started talking about EVM manipulation only after the exit polls suggested a facile win for the BJP, that is after the last vote was polled. So, this time round, the allegation…actually rumour-mongering started after the EVM machines were locked.

That makes it even more unlikely because the claim now is that the machines have been manipulated after votes had been cast and the EVM machines locked for counting. Preposterous claim really. Then why is Congress making this claim now?

Early trends coming in from North Gujarat

According to News18, early trends coming in from Gujarat put BJP in the lead with 4 seats. Congress is at 3 seats.

Officials at counting centre set up in Ahmedabad's Gujarat College open ballot boxes as counting of votes begins 

What is VVPAT and how does it eliminate scope for manipulation of EVM machines? 

VVPAT, short for Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail, is a small paper printout that the voters get once they exercise their franchise by pressing the relevant EVM machine button.

This has been introduced because all Opposition parties, especially Aam Aadmi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, created a ruckus post the historic win BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Their claim was that EVMs had been programmed in such a way that whatever button one presses on the EVM machine the vote is registered in favour of the BJP.

The paper trail makes that impossible not to be noticed. Voters can instantly verify if the candidate they voted for is the real recipient of their vote. If, for example I voted for Candidate/party X, but my vote vent to Candidate/party Y, the VVPAT immediately shows up the error or manipulation. The voter can instantly lodge a complaint. So what’s the merit of the Congress’ tampering claims? That’s coming up soon.

Counting of votes begin

With several high-profile seats, Ahmedabad will be the focus of election

Visuals from Gujarat State Election Commission office in Gandhinagar

Supporters perform 'havan' outside Rahul Gandhi's office

BJP was the original proponent of the 'EVM hacking' theory

Do Congress claims of EVM tampering hold water?

Hardly. The Election Commission has demonstrated multiple times in the last ten years that EVMs (electronic voting machines) are tamper-proof. But since Opposition parties continued to express their doubts, especially since the unprecedented victory of BJP in UP earlier this year, the Commission introduced another security feature, called VVPAT or Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail.

What is VVPAT and how does it eliminate any scope for manipulation of the EVM machines? Keep watching this space for the answer.

BJP versus Congress vote share percent in last 7 elections

BJP-Congress seat share percentage

Photos from outside BJP office in Gandhinagar

Ashok Gehlot might have a thing or two to say about exit polls

Ashok Gehlot, the former Rajasthan chief minister who is in charge of Gujarat Congress, may have a thing or two to say about exit polls. In 2003, exit polls predicted a win for Congress in the assembly elections.

Convinced that he was returning to power, Gehlot assembled his friends and family on the day of counting at the CM residence. Also present were some drum beaters. 

The celebratory atmosphere turned funereal when the BJP took the lead and raced away to 120 seats in the 200 member assembly.

Not one exit polls had predicted a BJP win.

Counting to begin at 8 am: Surat's Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology

Congress claims of EVM tampering… is the shoe on the other foot?

All through electioneering the Congress put up a narrative of nervousness in the BJP. Nervous because of Patidar andolan, nervous because of OBC and Dalit apathy, rural distress, urban fatigue and the emergence of Rahul Gandhi. But since last evening, spokespersons of the Congress have been talking up the theory of BJP manipulating the EVM machines. Does that show nervousness on the part of the Congress? Does the claim of EVM tampering hold water?

Rupani confident of bagging more than two-third seats

Speaking to ANI on Sunday, Chief Minister Vijay Rupani said, "I am confident that the results will be in favour of BJP. BJP will form the government and will get more than two-third of the (182 Gujarat Assembly) seats," Rupani said and added, "Gujarat public has preferred politics of development, and development was brought in by Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi and the BJP."

Replying to the allegations of Congress about tampering with electronic voting machines (EVMs), Rupani said the baseless charges had been made "so that the responsibility of defeat does not fall on Rahul Gandhi" when the results would be declared on Monday.

Results expected to have a bearing on 2019 General Elections

The results are expected to have a bearing on the 2019 Lok Sabha elections also as Modi had come to power in 2014, based on the Gujarat 'model of development'.

The much-awaited results of the keenly fought elections will be announced today when the counting of votes will be held at 37 centres across the state's 33 districts, amidst tight security.

BJP seeks sixth term, Congress hopes for a comeback

Counting of votes will begin shortly for the Gujarat Assembly polls, considered a prestige battle for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his home state and a litmus test for new Congress president Rahul Gandhi.

While the BJP is seeking a sixth straight term in office, the Congress is aiming to stage a comeback in power after being in the opposition for over two decades.