Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh election results will favour PM Narendra Modi's BJP, exit polls have said.
Ahmedabad/Shimla: Votes will be counted in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh from 8 this morning. Exit polls give both to the BJP, which will take away another state from the Congress if it wins Himachal. Analysts have called the Gujarat election a pivotal moment, a contest important not only for the state but also national politics. A big win today for the BJP will, in the run-up to the 2019 national election, add to the momentum that the party got with its sweep of Uttar Pradesh earlier this year. Will it be Modi Wave 3.0 in Gujarat after the 2014 national election and UP?
Here is your cheatsheet to the results of 2017 Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh elections:
- Gujarat has 182 assembly seats and a party needs 92 or more to form government. NDTV's analysis of exit polls and other surveys shows that the BJP not only has 90 per cent chance of retaining Gujarat for a fifth straight term, but also has a 35 percent chance of winning more than 130 seats, a landslide victory.
- Himachal Pradesh has 68 assembly seats and a party needs 35 or more to cross halfway and form government. Exit polls forecast a sweep for the BJP in the state, which was held by the Congress after the slimmest of wins five years ago.
- Winning Gujarat, his home state, is also a matter of prestige for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In a bitterly fought battle versus Rahul Gandhi, the Prime Minister made the election more about Gujarati pride and less about issues like development and economic policies raised by the new Congress president.
- Rahul Gandhi also tried to tap into any anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP, which has been in power in Gujarat for two decades. He forged partnerships with young caste leaders to cash in on the anger of their groups against the ruling party.
- Today's results will reveal whether the Congress could make any dent in the BJP's traditional vote base of the influential Patel community with its tie-up with 24-year-old Hardik Patel, the face of the Patel or Patidar agitation for reservation in government jobs and colleges.
- Rahul Gandhi's strategy of inducting backward caste leader Alpesh Thakor into the Congress to woo the state's 30 per cent OBCs will also be tested. His party has also supported Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani, not fielding a candidate against him.
- Late on Sunday evening, the Election Commission withdrew its notice to Rahul Gandhi over a television interview aired after campaigning had ended in Gujarat last week. The BJP had alleged that Mr Gandhi's interview violated election rules.
- The Congress had countered that with several complaints of its own, including over PM Modi walking on the road with his inked finger held up after voting in Ahmedabad during the second and last phase of voting in Gujarat on Thursday last. The Congress alleged that PM Modi had conducted a "road show", violating rules.
- The allegations capped an acrimonious campaign that saw the two sides trade angry words, with both PM Modi and Rahul Gandhi accusing the other of abuses. PM Modi's allegation that Congress leaders including his predecessor Dr Manmohan Singh colluded with Pakistan in an attempt to influence the Gujarat polls has provoked a demand by the opposition party for an apology in parliament.
- BJP chief Amit Shah, who is also from Gujarat, had set his party a target of winning more than 150 seats in the state. The BJP had won 115 in the last election, the Congress had won 61. In the 2014 general election, the BJP had in the big "Modi wave" won all the state's 26 seats. The party's landslide win of over 300 of UP's 403 seats was dubbed Modi wave 2.0.
