Gujarat Assembly Election Results 2017 LIVE updates: Sensex depends on BJP's performance, say poll pundits as party leads in 97 seats

Ultimately BJP is going to win: Deputy CM Nitin Patel

BJP leads in 97 seats: Election Commission

Market will continue to stay confident 

"Judging by the results that are out so far, there are two messages for the BJP," says Deven Choksey, managing director, KR Choksey Investment Managers. The party will now have to ponder the initiatives it has taken so far and what has been the result on the ground so far, he adds.

"The other message coming out of the Gujarat election leads is that there is a need to instal a strong leadership in the state," says Choksey. Evidently, the current leadership is not seen as effective, which is what the results indicate.

The market will not be concerned about the issues pertaining to seats won or lost. If the party scores in Gujarat, and even if it is not a sweeping victory, the stock market will continue to repose confidence in it.  The BJP will have to review its policy decisions. But where the market is concerned, there is no credible alternative to the party, Choksey states.

LEADING | Jignesh leads by 7,000 votes

BJP candidate Bhupendra Patel leads by 20,000 votes on Ghatlodia seat in Ahmedabad. Independent candidate leads by 2,000 votes on Tharad seat of flood-affected Banaskantha. Jignesh Mevani leads by 7000 votes on Vadgam seat.

LEADING | Rupani leads by 7,600 votes from Rajkot

Rupani is leading by 7,600 votes from Rajkot West constituency, at the end of counting in round 3. The elections for 182-seat Assembly were held on 9 and 14 December, after an acrimonious campaign, which was dominated by a face-off between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi.

LEADING | Jignesh Mevani 

TRAILING | Shaktisinh Gohil 

Jignesh Mevani leads by more than 6,000 votes, while Shaktisinh Gohil is trailing in Mandvi of Kutch District. In Gadhada constituency Atmaram Parmar from BJP leads. From Botad, DM Patel leads.

The BJP now firmly in the saddle…can it still make a late surge?

Lead trends of have yet again changed. The BJP is past majority mark of 92 and is now firmly in saddle at 103 leads. Trends from all sources indicate that BJP is going to form government in Gujarat, perhaps with slightly reduced margin, or maybe not.

As these leads/trends emerge after about two hours of counting, these trends may be considered stabilise, though the chances of a late BJP surge are not yet ruled out. The BJP could very well use, whatever may be the margin of victory, the Hindi phrase `Jo jita wohi sikandar’ and the Congress spokespersons could have a face saver in terms of increased vote percentage.

In another an hour or two we will know whether the BJP is able to cross its previous mark 115. But whatever the end numbers, the fact remains if BJP manages to win it would be a huge booster for the party and its supreme leader – that despite two big bold disruptive moves, GST and demonetisation, as also 22 years of anti-incumbency, his party could still hold on in Gujarat. The BJP has another reason to feel relieved and happy at this hour – chief minister Vijay Rupani is leading again.

Markets will continue to be volatile for a couple of days: Experts
 

The volatile nature of the stock markets will continue for a couple of days, says AK Prabhakar, Head of Reserach, IDBI Capital. Once the results are out, whichever way it goes, stocks will rally, he told Firstpost. Once that is done, Prabhakar added that the markets may gradually touch 10,800 by the first week of January. 

"There is a huge local liquidity flow which will balance the market at lower levels. If market correction happens in a big way 5-6 percent, there are huge funds waiting to buy into the market," he said.
 

If the BJP wilns, it is victory for the government's policy. But he does not think that should change much as the victory in the home state is expected, Prabhakar said. However, if the BJP loses the election, it will go in for a course correction, he said, like the party did when it lost the Bihar elections..

Tally till 10.00 am

BJP internal assessment puts their tally at 131

After the initial shock of the Congress threatening to nose ahead of the BJP, the trends are now settling down. CNN-News18 has already called the Gujarat election in favour of the BJP. At ten am the BJP is on 103 leading, a comfortable gap of 27 from the Congress. But insiders in the party are not sweating yet. According to sources in the BJP, its campaign managers have predicted a tally of 131 for the party, 64 in the first phase and 67 in the second. So, the BJP will now be looking for a twist in the tail.

Markets crashing a wake-up call for Narendra Modi: CEO, SAMCO securities

While the BJP may win with a narrow margin, it is a positive sign from an economic and market perspective, says  Jimeet Modi, CEO, SAMCO Securities. The BJP may be compelled to make policies with consensus and their current way of policy-making will have to stop. The BJP will make sure public considerations are taken into count before policy making is done in future, he said.

“The election is a wake-up call which will make 2018 budget a  more inclusive one. The BJP will make sure that they take adequate steps in 2018 budget so that it does not go down like it has happened this year,” Modi said.

Modi advised investors said, any fall into the markets should be bought into.

Congress: We will form govt in Gujarat

"We will form government in Gujarat. We will wait for final figures but even if the BJP wins, we are the real winners," Congress' Priyanka Chaturvedi.

BJP leads in 103 - Congress in 75

If early trends are to be believed, the BJP is all set to form the government in Gujarat — for the sixth time. As per trends, the BJP was leading in 101 seats in Gujarat, while the Congress was ahead in 78. Chief Minister Vijay Rupani is now back in the lead against Congress leader Indranil Rajyaguru in Rajkot West, but Deputy CM Nitin Patel is still trailing in Mehsana where the Jignesh Mevani factor is at play, while its state unit chief Jitu Vaghani is also behind in Anand.

Vijay Rupani leading by 7,600 votes from Rajkot West

Nervousness grips stock markets

As mentioned a while ago, the stock markets are disappointed with the latest trends coming from Gujarat. Punters were betting on a clear, huge BJP win but with the Congress offering a tough fight to the incumbent, sheer nervousness has gripped the bourses. The benchmark sensex tanked 800 points in the intrad-day market before recovering later. This is largely a knee-jerk reaction and things can return to normalcy if BJP pulls off a victory at the end of the day.

BJP takes lead again; Sensex recovers 400 points

BJP's Jitu Vaghani, contesting from Bhavnagar West seat, leading by 2,200 votes, The Indian Express reported. As BJP takes lead again, markets take comfort. Sensex recovers almost 400 points, now down around 300 points.

Trends til 9.30 am

Rupani, Nitin Patel both trailing 

Chief minister Vijay Rupani and his deputy Nitin Patel are both trailing in Gujarat. Patel's loss was largely foreseen because of Patidar anger in Mehsana, the epicentre of the Hardik Patel led movement.

If Rupani loses, it will be due to the daring and sang froid of his opponent Indraneel Rajyaguru. I had met Rajyaguru in the middle of the campaign and was surprised by his confidence. Chewing tobacco, reclining in his seat with his feet up, he boldly predicted his victory. 

Rajyaguru had left his Rakkot (East) constituency and shifted to the adjoining Rajkot (West) a year ago. "The moment I heard Rupani is the new CM, I declared my candidature."

If Rajyaguru wins, he will be hailed as the great gambler of Gujarat.

BJP's Nitin Patel trailing by over 3000 votes from Mehsana

Election Commission's official numbers

Gujarat polls will set agenda for stock market

What happens in Gujarat today can set the agenda for stock markets in the near term.

Traders will be praying for the exit poll predictions to come true and BJP wave continues in Gujarat.That's because if exit polls get it right and the public mandate favours BJP, that would be an endorsement of Modi's policies and signal political stability. On the contrary, if pollsters get it wrong, there can be a short-term bloodbath in the bourses.

BJP leads in 2 seats Porbandar and Bhavnagar East

According to The Indian Express, the BJP leading in 2 seats, Porbandar and Bhavnagar East. Congress also leading in 2 seats, Mandvi and Nadiad.

Purushottam Solanki leading from Bhavnagar Rural with 2637 votes

BJP candidate Purshottam Solanki, who is also a Gujarat cabinet minister leads with 2637 votes on Bhavnagar Rural. Former Patidar quota leader Lalit Vasoya is leading his BJP rival Harilal Patel after first round of counting of votes.

Vijay Rupani is trailing in Rajkot West

Chief Minister Vijay Rupani is trailing in his constituency of Rajkot West. This will be a matter of great concern for the BJP because this is a bell-weather seat. If the incumbent chief minister is in trouble, can the portents for the rest of the state be different?

Urban Seats | BJP ahead in 31 seats while Congress in 10 seats

In urban seats, BJP is ahead in 31 seats while Congress in 10 seats. However, its a close-knit fight in rural areas, where the Congress is ahead. BJP is traditionally seen as an urban party, with the outer regions preferring Congress.

BJP touches 67 seats at 9.00 am; Congress at 56

The fight for Gujarat has heated up as the BJP touches 67 seats at 9:00 am, while Congress is ahead in 56 seats. The halfway mark, which will decide which party gets to rule Gujarat, is set at 92 in the 182-member Assembly.

Gujarat trajectory of leads and wins

Congress angered its cadre by relying too much on Alpesh, Jignesh

Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani the “two Young Turks” who joined Congress are trailing in their respective constituencies, Radhanpur and Vadgam. While touring these two constituencies,  had reported that they were on sticky wicket and could lose elections.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi had placed too trust on the two. Alpesh was hyped as a OBC leader who would bring substantive chunk of the 40 per cent voters in Gujarat and Jignesh would tilt Dalit votes in Congress’ favour.

Though the two had carefully chosen their constituencies, weighing the caste factor and the presence of sizeable Muslim voters, after talking to a cross section of voters in both the constituencies, I could feel that they had miscalculated. The Congress possibly had gone by the media hype around them. Alpesh was given 10 seats by the Congress, which had angered its party workers. Jignesh ran JNU-style campaigning placing excessive thrust on Muslim voters.

LEADING | Jignesh and Alpesh are leading now from Vadgam and Radhanpur constituencies, respectively

Both Dalit leaders, Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor, are now leading from Vadgam and Radhanpur constituencies, respectively.

Mevani is contesting as an independent candidate, with the support from Congress, while Thakor is a candidate for the grand old party.

TRAILING | Shaktisinh Gohil from Mandavi

Former Gujarat Congress chief, Shaktisinh Gohil, is trailing from his seat of Mandavi, Kutch. 

The Muslim-dominated constituency has 2.24 lakh voters, where 50,000 are Muslims, followed by 31,000 Dalits, 25,000 Patidars and 21,000 Rajputs. Gohil, the 57-year-old Rajput leader, considered by many as the party's chief ministerial choice, is fighting against BJP's new face Virendrasinh Jadeja, who is also a Rajput.

Jignesh and Alpesh trailing

Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor are trailing from Vadgam and Radhanpur constituencies, respectively. Mevani is contesting as an independent candidate, with the support from Congress, while Thakor is a candidate for the grand old party.

LEADING | BJP leads in 50 seats compared to Congress' 41

Trends at 8:40 am, show BJP leading in 50 seats as compared to Congress' 41. The halfway mark, which will decide which party gets to rule Gujarat, is set at 92 in the 182-member Assembly. In the 2012 elections, the BJP had bagged 119 seats, while the Congress had managed 57 seats.

Alpesh and Jignesh trailing: Not good news for Congress

The Congress party fought the election using three props: Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh.

The first not old enough to content an election and the other two, if the early trends hold, who might struggle to hold their own. This cannot be good news for the Congress which put a lot of store on the power of the caste combination these three youngsters brought to the battle to outgun the BJP’s Hindutva. But if Jignesh and Alpesh can’t win their own seats, will they be able to influence any of the other seats?

EVM tinkering row ahead of counting nothing new

Like failed political analysts, parties also look for an excuse to explain away their reverses. Right from word go, the Opposition in Gujarat began with a bravado but with caveat — if EVMs are not tinkered with. But this is nothing new. Recall Lalu Yadav's proclamation in 1995 elections when he said "ballot boxes will produce Djinn". And this created big controversy.

What did he mean by "Djinn"? people ask. His rivals interpreted it as "rigging". Of course when the results came in, Lalu was seen to have won, obviously  with  tacit the help of "Djinn". Similarly remember BJP spokesman GVL Narasimha Rao's loud protest over possibility of EVM tampering after the BJP's defeat in 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

Even LK Advani endorsed the proposition that the EVMs are not temper-proof.  So don't worry if you hear a big noise about tinkering of EVMs in wake of today's results.

BJP leading in 27 seats, Congress in 12

Trends at 8:30 am say BJP is leading in 27 seats as compared to Congress' 12. The halfway mark, which will decide which party gets to rule Gujarat, is set at 92 in the 182-member Assembly. In the 2012 elections, the BJP had bagged 119 seats, while the Congress had managed 57 seats.

I assure you that there can be no tampering with the EVMs: AK Joti

CEC AK Joti told ANI that all arrangements were made in Gujarat by Chief Electoral officer of the state at all places in counting halls for the state assembly elections. "I assure you that there can be no tampering with the EVMs."

Speaking on the EVM controversy, Joti said, "Questions being raised about EVMs have already been answered by us in the media. VVPATs were there in every polling stations in Gujarat, which enabled voters to see whom they voted for, so issues being raised aren't right. I assure that EVMS cannot be tampered with."

Ex-CEC SY Quaraishi on controversies over EVMs

"VVPAT machines are in use now. There is no scope for controversies anymore. If there is confusion between counting of votes and paper slips, then paper slips will prevail. Hence, there can be no confusion.” He further adds that every party has questioned EVMs. "Nothing new in that, but VVPAT is the answer. EVMs and VVPATs will work together, so if anything doubtful happens, it can be cross checked," he said.

Hindutva element is back in Gujarat, says Shankar Aiyar

"The glue that held Gujarat together for 25 years was Hindutva. In the past 3 years, during the Rupani and Patel regime, there was a general disgruntlement. The Hindutva element has now been brought back," says political analyst and author Shankar Aiyar.

Overall Gujarat: Early trends

BJP: 22 

Congress: 10

Early trends from Surat

Out of 16 seats, BJP is leading in 10. Congress has still not opened their account in Surat

EVM have become punching bag of losers

The EVM has become the favourite punching bag of losers. When you can’t blame your leader and your ability to win votes, blame it on EVM. Even before the first vote could be counted, the Congress and its ally Hardik Patel started blaming it on EVM tampering.

The Congress losing would mean that Rahul Gandhi had no appeal in Gujarat and the potential of his three allies, the so called young turks —  Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakore — has been overhyped. The Congress’s nervousness had become apparent when it called the EC and CEC names  – “captive frontal organization of BJP” etc — after Narendra Modi cast his vote and walked on foot and waved at the crowds.

They went to the Supreme Court urging it to put a stay on counting till VVPT and EVM votes are matched.

South Gujarat and Saurashtra: Early trends

Vijay Rupani is comfortably ahead, early trends show. According to News18, in South Gujarat and Saurashtra region, the BJP is leading in 14 seats while Congress maintained its numbers at four. 

Even though these are very early trends, it will definitely bolster the saffron party's spirits. 

Then why is Congress raising EVM manipulation post-voting? 

The Congress tried to raise this bogey before and during voting but failed. The party raised a shindig during the first phase on 9 December saying EVMs were being manipulated by the BJP during voting using Bluetooth devices.

The Election Commission instantly killed the rumours by demonstraing then and there that bluetooth devices can’t breach the EVMs. So that’s that. Whoever wins today will not be because they managed to work the EVMs but they managed to work on the ground better. On to the trends now….they have started trickling in.

Why is Congress’s claim on EVM manipulation even more flaky this time round?

For two reasons. One, as just pointed out a while ago, the fidelity of the EVM machines has been enhanced twice over with the introduction of the VVPAT. Now there is absolutely no way of the voter not knowing if the machine has been manipulated. Two, the timing of the Congress’ claim about manipulation.

The Congress started talking about EVM manipulation only after the exit polls suggested a facile win for the BJP, that is after the last vote was polled. So, this time round, the allegation…actually rumour-mongering started after the EVM machines were locked.

That makes it even more unlikely because the claim now is that the machines have been manipulated after votes had been cast and the EVM machines locked for counting. Preposterous claim really. Then why is Congress making this claim now?

Early trends coming in from North Gujarat

According to News18, early trends coming in from Gujarat put BJP in the lead with 4 seats. Congress is at 3 seats.

Officials at counting centre set up in Ahmedabad's Gujarat College open ballot boxes as counting of votes begins 

What is VVPAT and how does it eliminate scope for manipulation of EVM machines? 

VVPAT, short for Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail, is a small paper printout that the voters get once they exercise their franchise by pressing the relevant EVM machine button.

This has been introduced because all Opposition parties, especially Aam Aadmi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, created a ruckus post the historic win BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Their claim was that EVMs had been programmed in such a way that whatever button one presses on the EVM machine the vote is registered in favour of the BJP.

The paper trail makes that impossible not to be noticed. Voters can instantly verify if the candidate they voted for is the real recipient of their vote. If, for example I voted for Candidate/party X, but my vote vent to Candidate/party Y, the VVPAT immediately shows up the error or manipulation. The voter can instantly lodge a complaint. So what’s the merit of the Congress’ tampering claims? That’s coming up soon.

Counting of votes begin

With several high-profile seats, Ahmedabad will be the focus of election

Visuals from Gujarat State Election Commission office in Gandhinagar

Supporters perform 'havan' outside Rahul Gandhi's office

BJP was the original proponent of the 'EVM hacking' theory

Do Congress claims of EVM tampering hold water?

Hardly. The Election Commission has demonstrated multiple times in the last ten years that EVMs (electronic voting machines) are tamper-proof. But since Opposition parties continued to express their doubts, especially since the unprecedented victory of BJP in UP earlier this year, the Commission introduced another security feature, called VVPAT or Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail.

What is VVPAT and how does it eliminate any scope for manipulation of the EVM machines? Keep watching this space for the answer.

BJP versus Congress vote share percent in last 7 elections

BJP-Congress seat share percentage

Photos from outside BJP office in Gandhinagar

Ashok Gehlot might have a thing or two to say about exit polls

Ashok Gehlot, the former Rajasthan chief minister who is in charge of Gujarat Congress, may have a thing or two to say about exit polls. In 2003, exit polls predicted a win for Congress in the assembly elections.

Convinced that he was returning to power, Gehlot assembled his friends and family on the day of counting at the CM residence. Also present were some drum beaters. 

The celebratory atmosphere turned funereal when the BJP took the lead and raced away to 120 seats in the 200 member assembly.

Not one exit polls had predicted a BJP win.

Counting to begin at 8 am: Surat's Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology

Congress claims of EVM tampering… is the shoe on the other foot?

All through electioneering the Congress put up a narrative of nervousness in the BJP. Nervous because of Patidar andolan, nervous because of OBC and Dalit apathy, rural distress, urban fatigue and the emergence of Rahul Gandhi. But since last evening, spokespersons of the Congress have been talking up the theory of BJP manipulating the EVM machines. Does that show nervousness on the part of the Congress? Does the claim of EVM tampering hold water?

Rupani confident of bagging more than two-third seats

Speaking to ANI on Sunday, Chief Minister Vijay Rupani said, "I am confident that the results will be in favour of BJP. BJP will form the government and will get more than two-third of the (182 Gujarat Assembly) seats," Rupani said and added, "Gujarat public has preferred politics of development, and development was brought in by Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi and the BJP."

Replying to the allegations of Congress about tampering with electronic voting machines (EVMs), Rupani said the baseless charges had been made "so that the responsibility of defeat does not fall on Rahul Gandhi" when the results would be declared on Monday.

Results expected to have a bearing on 2019 General Elections

The results are expected to have a bearing on the 2019 Lok Sabha elections also as Modi had come to power in 2014, based on the Gujarat 'model of development'.

The much-awaited results of the keenly fought elections will be announced today when the counting of votes will be held at 37 centres across the state's 33 districts, amidst tight security.

BJP seeks sixth term, Congress hopes for a comeback

Counting of votes will begin shortly for the Gujarat Assembly polls, considered a prestige battle for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his home state and a litmus test for new Congress president Rahul Gandhi.

While the BJP is seeking a sixth straight term in office, the Congress is aiming to stage a comeback in power after being in the opposition for over two decades.