Sal Maiorana recaps the Buffalo Bills' 24-16 victory over the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo finishes the season 6-2 at New Era Field, its best home record since 1999, which is the last year the Bills made the playoffs. (Dec. 17, 2017) Sal Maiorana and Jamie Germano
With a 24-16 win over Miami Sunday, the Buffalo Bills have put themselves in the middle of the conversation as a wild-card team in the AFC to end their 17-year playoff drought.
In order to get to the postseason, the Bills will need help since they do not control their own destiny if they win the next two weeks against New England and Miami. But Buffalo will be in the hunt no matter what entering Week 17.
If the Bills are 10-6
They would still need Baltimore or Tennessee to lose once. Baltimore is 8-6 after defeating Cleveland Sunday and the Titans are 8-5, playing at San Francisco Sunday afternoon.
Baltimore finishes with two home games against Indianapolis (3-11) and Cincinnati (5-9) and if the Ravens win out they would have the edge against common opponents.
If Tennessee gets by the 49ers, it ends with two home games against the Los Angeles Rams (9-4) and Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4).
With a win Sunday, Jacksonville clinched a playoff spot.
If the Bills are 9-7
Let's be honest, this is probably the likeliest path since the Bills have never beaten Tom Brady in Foxborough when he's played the whole game.
The good news for the Bills is that both wild-card spots are up for grabs since no team has run away with either spot. They also will hold a lot of tiebreakers over the teams they're fighting against.
Titans eliminated: Tennessee would need to lose two of its last three games to also end at 9-7. The Bills would win the tiebreaker based on winning percentage in common games and wins the tie over the Chargers based on winning percentage in conference games.
OR
Ravens eliminated: Baltimore would need to lose once to finish 9-7. The Bills win the tiebreaker with the Ravens based on strength of victory and still break the tiebreaker with the Chargers based on conference games.
If the Bills beat the Dolphins again and lose to the Patriots and the Ravens lose the finale to the Bengals, Buffalo would take the playoff spot because it'd have the same record as Baltimore in the conference and against common opponents but would win the strength of victory tiebreaker, which totals the winning percentages against teams you have beaten.
OR
Chargers or Chiefs eliminated: It is important for Buffalo to have the Titans win at least one of their last three games, or have Baltimore lose a game if the Titans lose out. If Tennessee loses all three games to finish 8-8, Baltimore wins out to finish 10-6 and the Chargers win their last two at the Jets and home against the Raiders, that leaves the Chargers and Bills tied at 9-7 and Los Angeles has the tiebreaker having defeated the Bills in Week 11.
A Chargers loss, or two losses from Kansas City could take that scenario out of play. The Chargers would move into first place in the AFC West at 9-7 and leave the Chiefs at 8-8. One loss from Kansas City doesn't get it done.
If the Bills finish 8-8
The odds of making the playoffs at 8-8 are terrible, but the Bills aren't automatically eliminated. They would need the Titans to lose their last three games, the Ravens to lose their last two games and the Chargers to lose once.