The day after Democrats won a big upset victory in Alabama’s U.S. Senate race, the Florida Democratic Party sent out an email with the subject line “If we can win in Alabama…”
“If we can win in Alabama, we can win anywhere,” wrote new Democratic Party Chairwoman Terrie Rizzo.
Florida Democrats are eagerly touting the Alabama results to try to raise money and boost candidate recruitment heading into the 2018 elections. But some political observers have argued that the unusual dynamics of the Alabama race make it a poor case study for the broader political climate.
Republican candidate Roy Moore faced accusations from multiple women that he had inappropriate sexual contact with them when they were teenagers and he was in his 30s. Moore also had a history of highly controversial actions as a judge.
In short, he had a lot more baggage than the typical candidate.
Nonpartisan political handicappers Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley argue that “even taking Moore’s horrible candidacy into account,” the Alabama election is still a harbinger of a building Democratic wave.
Writing for Sabato’s Crystal Ball — a political publication associated with the University of Virginia Center for Politics — Kondik and Skelley point to high Democratic turnout in Alabama as particularly noteworthy.
“The race reinforced several trends we’ve seen in other places this year,” wrote Kondik and Skelley. “Here was another special election where a Democratic candidate ran very heavily ahead of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 showing. Republican turnout was OK… but Democratic turnout was a lot better.”
Another big takeaway for Democrats — and Republicans — from Alabama is the importance of recruiting good candidates, even in races that may be an uphill climb.
Republicans lost — in part — because voters had serious reservations about their candidate. But if Democrats hadn’t recruited a highly credible candidate to make a longshot bid against Moore, they wouldn’t have been in position to take advantage of the accusations against him.
Democratic recruiting has already been fairly strong in Florida and beyond. In Southwest Florida, Democrats have recruited two credible candidates — both Siesta Key attorneys — to take on incumbent Republican congressman Vern Buchanan and challenge for an open state House seat covering much of northern Sarasota County.
Democratic recruiting is likely to get even easier after the outcome in Alabama. Meanwhile, Republicans could struggle to recruit good candidates. Florida Gov. Rick Scott has been expected to challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson next year, but after the Alabama election the New York Times reported Scott may be wavering.
“In Florida, for example, advisers to Gov. Rick Scott said he was mindful of the midterm climate and was not yet sold on challenging Senator Bill Nelson,” the Times said.
Scott told reporters this week that he hasn’t “made a decision about my future. “
“That race is in 2018, it's still 2017,” Scott said. “You can talk to the pundits about it.”
Scott is one of the strongest Senate candidates Republicans could recruit. He is a solid fundraiser with widespread name recognition and a relatively high approval rating. If he ultimately decides not to run, it would be a huge relief for Florida Democrats.
And it would show how elections have ripple effects that can extend far beyond one state’s borders.
David Shapiro’s Jan Schneider problem
Democrat Jan Schneider doesn’t mince words when it comes to President Donald Trump.
“Quite frankly, I think Trump is a scourge on the nation,” Schneider said. “I think he’s a racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, raging narcissist.”
Schneider is running for the Democratic nomination in Florida’s 16th congressional district, which covers northern Sarasota County, Manatee County and a sliver of southern Hillsborough County. She has filed fundraising paperwork with the Federal Election Commission, and she told the Herald-Tribune in an interview last week that she plans to ramp up her campaign in January.
A 70-year-old Sarasota attorney with a law degree from Yale University, Schneider has run for Congress five times before and is well known among local Democrats. That name recognition, combined with her willingness to speak bluntly about Trump and take other positions that could fire up the left, such as supporting Medicare for all, could pose a problem for David Shapiro, a Siesta Key attorney who also is running for the Democratic nomination in District 16.
Shapiro, 58, was recruited to run for the District 16 seat by Democratic leaders in Southwest Florida and Washington D.C. He is expected to be a strong fundraiser and is building a professional campaign. But he can’t overlook Schneider. She raised little money for her congressional campaign last year and only offered token opposition to Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan, but she still won 155,262 votes. Democrats are accustomed to seeing her name on the ballot.
At the minimum, Shapiro likely will have to spend some money to get his name out and overcome the name recognition Schneider has built up over the years. That means less money to take on Buchanan, who already has more than $2 million in cash on hand for the race.
But Schneider isn’t worried about being a spoiler for Shapiro.
“Primaries are good for the party,” Schneider said. “Otherwise you get no attention until far too late.”
Schneider said she plans to focus on “healthcare, healthcare, healthcare” during the campaign. She believes the country needs to move gradually to a single-payer system.
“I’m not abandoning other issues,” she said. “I just think if the Republicans kill healthcare like they’re trying to do people will suffer, people will die and that to me is the most immediate issue.”
Events
• The Anna Maria Island Democratic Club meets Monday at 11:30 a.m. at the IMG Academy Golf Club clubhouse, 4350 El Conquistador Pkwy. in Bradenton. New College of Florida political science professor Frank Alcock will give a presentation on the Florida Constitution Revision Commission. $17 for members and $20 for guests.