N.F.L. Picks Week 15: Steelers and Patriots Battle for A.F.C. Superiority

There are only two N.F.L. games in Week 15 between teams that The Upshot’s Playoff Simulator gives a 50 percent chance or greater of making the playoffs, but there are three crucial matchups. The Chiefs and the Chargers will meet in a game that could decide the A.F.C. West, the Rams and the Seahawks will battle for the N.F.C. West, and a Sunday afternoon matchup between the Steelers and the Patriots could clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for Pittsburgh (with some help from Houston). Here are our picks against the spread.

Last week’s record against the spread: 11-5

Overall record: 107-95-6

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Top-Tier Games

Patriots at Steelers, 4:25 p.m., CBS

Line: Patriots by 3

Jerry Rice never won a Most Valuable Player Award. Neither did Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Cris Carter or Steve Largent. No wide receiver has ever been picked as the N.F.L.’s best player, an award that has gone to 41 quarterbacks, 18 running backs, one defensive tackle, one linebacker and even a kicker: Mark Moseley of the Redskins, in the strike-shortened 1982 season. But receivers may finally get their due with Antonio Brown of the Steelers (11-2, clinched A.F.C. North).

Brown leads the N.F.L. in receptions and receiving yards, and has been the catalyst for a Pittsburgh team that has surged to the top of the standings in the A.F.C. He has been especially good in his last four games, with 39 catches for 627 yards and six touchdowns. If he keeps up his pace he will finish the season with 1,857 receiving yards, which would fall short of Johnson’s record of 1,964 but be the third most receiving yards recorded in a single season.

Benefiting Brown to be the first receiver to win an M.V.P. Award is the lack of an obvious choice at other positions. Among quarterbacks, the Eagles’ Carson Wentz was a favorite until he was lost for the season last Sunday. The Seahawks’ Russell Wilson should be considered. The Patriots’ Tom Brady is always in the mix, and the Saints’ Drew Brees may get some attention (even if his team’s resurgence can largely be credited to its dynamic running game). But some of Brown’s peers have been in awe of him.

Helping matters considerably would be a win over the Patriots (10-3), who have a greater than 99 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the Playoff Simulator. Beating New England would give the Steelers a first-round bye. Should that happen, in combination with Jacksonville losing to or tying Houston, the Steelers would clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Pittsburgh is still hobbled by the loss of linebacker Ryan Shazier to spinal surgery, but the Steelers proved last week that they could succeed without him, thanks to Brown and the offense, which has struggled against lesser team but seems to do well against tough competition. Pick: Steelers

Rams at Seahawks, 4:05 p.m., Fox

Line: Seahawks by 2

For most of the season, the N.F.C. West has been dominated by the Rams (9-4, 83 percent playoff chance). Quarterback Jared Goff’s rapid maturation and a great season by running back Todd Gurley have made their offense something to fear. That has helped the defense find consistency, since it is spending less time on the field.

For the Seahawks (8-5, 55 percent), the ride has not been as easy. Among other problems, they lost Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor to season-ending injuries and struggled to develop a consistent running game. Their record was helped by a favorable schedule, but also by Russell Wilson’s penchant for keeping them in games they had no business being in.

Seattle’s troubles may be forgiven if it beats Los Angeles at home, which would move it into a tie for the division lead. Neither team has an advantage in terms of Week 16 and 17 opponents, so a win would give Seattle about a 50-50 shot at a division title.

That said, the Rams have Robert Woods, the team’s best wide receiver, back, and if Jared Goff can deal with the crowd noise at CenturyLink Field, he should carve up Seattle’s injury-depleted secondary with passes to Woods, Sammy Watkins and the rookie standout Cooper Kupp. Pick: Rams

Chargers at Chiefs, 8:25 p.m. (Saturday), NFL Network

Line: Chargers by 1

After four games, the Chiefs (7-6, 40 percent) had a four-game lead over the Chargers (7-6, 69 percent). Their seasons have gone in different directions since then, and San Diego is the road favorite with a chance to steal the A.F.C. West. Because it’s on a Saturday night, this game might receive less attention than it deserves, but the Chargers are coming in with a four-game winning streak, and the winner should be the favorite to win the division, based on coming opponents. Pick: Chargers

Bengals at Vikings, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Vikings by 10.5

There are few coaches as familiar with each other as Marvin Lewis of the Bengals (5-8, <1 percent) and Mike Zimmer of the Vikings (10-3, >99 percent). Zimmer was previously Lewis’s defensive coordinator, and they have known each other since the 1980s. In their first game against each other as head coaches, Zimmer is at an almost comical advantage. A loss last week put Minnesota behind Philadelphia for the top spot in the N.F.C., but a manageable schedule and Carson Wentz’s injury could open the door for the Vikings to get back to that or, at the very least, get a first-round bye. The Vikings have enough players on the injury report to make a double-digit spread too high to pick them, but they should win. Pick: Bengals

Packers at Panthers, 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Panthers by 3

Aaron Rodgers, sidelined since he broke his collarbone in Week 6, is being thrown right into the deep end, with the Packers (7-6, 9 percent) clinging to a tiny chance of making the playoffs. In a similar situation last season, when the Packers essentially needed to win out, Rodgers delivered, and his history suggests no one should bet against him. A game on the road against the Panthers (9-4, 79 percent) is one Green Bay should lose, but in Rodgers’s career, it is the type of game he tends to win, and in the most exciting way. Pick: Packers

Second-Tier Games

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Eagles at Giants, 1 p.m., Fox

Pick: Eagles by 7.5

The Eagles (11-2, clinched N.F.C. East) were Super Bowl favorites, but with Carson Wentz out for the season it is hard to know what to make of them. Nick Foles is one of the better backups in the N.F.L., but until he has been truly tested in Philadelphia’s offense, it is an open question as to whether the Eagles are still among the N.F.C.’s best.

Coach Steve Spagnuolo of the Giants (2-11, eliminated) said that Foles was a good enough passer to hold his own, but that people might be focusing too much on the passing game of a team that has LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement at running back.

“I don’t think it’s going to change all that much for us because you’ve got to stop that run game,” Spagnuolo told reporters. “It really didn’t matter who was handing it off.” Pick: Eagles

Jets at Saints, 1 p.m., CBS

Pick: Saints by 15

The Saints (9-4, 91 percent) lost last week, and have dropped two of their last three, but it is probably not yet time to worry. A 3-point loss can be chalked up to playing on the road and to a concussion forcing Alvin Kamara out of the game, but now they will be home, Kamara has returned and they have a soft opponent in the Jets (5-8, <1 percent).

The Jets were fairly entertaining in recent weeks, with Josh McCown airing it out and being rewarded for his aggressiveness, but he is out for the remainder of the season with a broken hand, and the team is left with a choice of Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg. Regardless of which Jets quarterback receives more playing time, the Saints should win, even if the point spread is too large to pick them. Pick: Jets

Cowboys at Raiders, 8:30 p.m., NBC

Pick: Cowboys by 3

No one would mistake the defense of the Raiders (6-7, 5 percent) for that of the Jaguars or Vikings, but it represents more of a challenge than the Cowboys (7-6, 6 percent) have faced in either of the last two weeks. Dallas scored 68 points in those games, which indicates the offense has adjusted to life without Ezekiel Elliott, but it is not clear how much that was helped by inferior competition.

Helping matters for Dallas is Sean Lee, the team’s standout linebacker, who recently returned from an injury. If Demarcus Lawrence can put consistent pressure on Derek Carr, and Lee can take care of the middle of the field, the Cowboys’ improving secondary should shut down Oakland’s vertical threats. Pick: Cowboys

Texans at Jaguars, 1 p.m., Fox

Pick: Jaguars by 10.5

The Jaguars (9-4, >99 percent) have clinched the franchise’s first winning season since 2007, and can clinch a playoff berth with a win this week (they could clinch even if they lose or tie should they get help from various teams). There is no reason their success should stop any time soon: They will face teams with a combined record of 15-24 in the final weeks. First up are the Texans (4-9, <1 percent), who do not present much of a challenge. Justifying an enormous point spread with a volatile offense led by Blake Bortles and Leonard Fournette is difficult, but the Jaguars’ defense is just that good. Pick: Jaguars

Titans at 49ers, 4:25 p.m., CBS

Pick: 49ers by 2

If you had told fans of the 49ers (3-10, eliminated) a few weeks ago that the team would be favored at home against the potentially playoff-bound Titans (8-5, 83 percent), there would have been some good laughs had. But that is the effect Jimmy Garoppolo has had on San Francisco since he took over as starting quarterback. He is 2-0 since a trade freed him from his apprenticeship in New England, but it may be premature to expect the 49ers, who have 10 wins over the last three seasons, to be favorites against a team that has eight this year. Pick: Titans

Bottom-Tier Games

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Ravens at Browns, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Ravens by 7

Beyond the career revival of Josh Gordon — which could end at any time given the troubled wide receiver’s past — there is not much reason to watch the Browns (0-13, eliminated). In the last two seasons, they have gone a combined 1-28, and they have not even been making things competitive, with just a 3-10 record in terms of beating the point spread as the underdog. The Ravens (7-6, 69 percent) are battling it out with several other teams for the A.F.C.’s second wild-card spot, and the energy involved in that alone should be enough to get them past Cleveland. Pick: Ravens

Dolphins at Bills, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: N/A

Tyrod Taylor appears ready to return from a knee injury, and that is great news for the Bills (7-6, 25 percent) because Taylor’s backup, Nathan Peterman, was in the league’s concussion protocol during the week. The Bills seemingly need to win at least two of their three remaining games to have a chance at beating out Baltimore and the various other teams in the mix for a wild-card spot, and since one of the three games is against New England, Buffalo’s best bet would be to win both games it has left against the Dolphins (6-7, 11 percent). Pick: Bills

Cardinals at Redskins, 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Redskins by 4

Coach Bruce Arians of the Cardinals (6-7, <1 percent) raised a few eyebrows during the week when he compared Blaine Gabbert’s intelligence on the field to Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck’s. Arians, who coached both of those quarterbacks, said: “Yeah, he’s up there. To play at this level in seven offenses is not easy, and he’s had success, especially in this offense. But yeah, he’s up there with those guys mentally.”

Gabbert, 28, has an 11-33 career record as a starter in seven seasons, and a passer rating of 72.4. Manning had 11 or more wins in a season 11 times.

The Redskins (5-8, eliminated) have a worse record than Arizona, but despite Gabbert’s intelligence, they should be favored at home. Pick: Redskins

Bears at Lions, 4:30 p.m. (Saturday), NFL Network

Line: Lions by 5.5

The Lions (7-6, 16 percent) ended a two-game losing streak with a win over lowly Tampa Bay, but it was likely too little too late, as Detroit’s playoff hopes had all but vanished. There is some N.F.C. North pride at stake against the Bears (4-9, eliminated), but considering this is an afternoon game on a Saturday, they could just not play it and insist that they did. Pick: Lions

Broncos at Colts, 8:25 p.m. (Thursday), NBC and NFL Network

Line: Broncos by 2.5

Somehow, the only game in Week 15 between two eliminated teams is one of the four that will be played in prime time. It is not like “Thursday Night Football” is known for its quality games, but when the fan bases of both the Broncos (4-9) and the Colts (3-10) would most likely prefer a loss to improve their draft position, it does not make for a compelling game. Here’s something to watch: Frank Gore is 59 yards short of his 12th consecutive season with 1,000 or more yards from scrimmage. (Emmitt Smith holds the record with 13.) Getting those 59 yards against Denver’s defense may be difficult. Pick: Broncos

Monday’s Matchup

Falcons at Buccaneers, 8:30 p.m., ESPN

Line: Falcons by 6.5

The Falcons (8-5, 61 percent) can capture the N.F.C. South division title if they win their three remaining games, but they could easily fall into the trap of looking beyond this game against the Buccaneers (4-9, eliminated) to crucial matchups in Weeks 16 and 17 against New Orleans and Carolina. There is no doubt that Atlanta should be favored to win, especially considering Julio Jones’s tremendous game against them in Week 11, but a spread of 6.5 points on the road is fairly aggressive, and a good effort by Tampa Bay could keep things closer than that. Pick: Buccaneers.