MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC on FOX 26’s main-card bouts. Today, we look at the first two fights on the main card.

UFC on FOX 26 takes place Saturday at Bell MTS Place in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. The main card airs on FOX following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

ALSO SEE:

• UFC on FOX 26 main-event breakdown: Can Rafael dos Anjos survive Robbie Lawler’s initial storm?
• UFC on FOX 26 co-main-event breakdown: Can replacement Josh Emmett upset Ricardo Lamas?

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Santiago Ponzinibbio (25-3 MMA, 7-2 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’0″ Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 73″
• Last fight: Knockout win over Gunnar Nelson (July 16, 2017)
• Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 14 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 14 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Strong pace and pressure
+ Excellent combination striker
^ High-volume/variating attacks
+ Accurate right cross and left hook
+ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Shows wrestling improvements
^ Good getup urgency
+ Makes in-fight adjustments

Mike Perry (11-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’0″ Age: 26 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 71″
• Last fight: Knockout win over Alex Reyes (Sept. 16, 2017)
• Camp: Team Sparta (Florida)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 11 KO victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid boxing technique
^ Heavy right hand and left hook
+ Dangerous knees and elbows
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Deceptive base and balance
+ Improved ground game/transitions
^ Bails or re-wrestles when appropriate
+ Effective ground striker

Summary:

In a potential welterweight war, Santiago Ponzinibbio will take on Mike Perry.

A dark horse among the division’s top contenders, Ponzinibbio quietly has amassed a five-fight winning streak. Now, with another big name before him, the Argentinian fighter will attempt to climb even further up the ranks.

Seeking to stop that ascension is Perry, an unabashed brawler who continues to grow as a fighter. And after capturing the attention of many with some memorable performances thus far, Perry will look to establish himself as a serious contender.

Akin to two cars on a collision course is the way that these two match up on the feet. Although heated exchanges are inevitable in each fighter’s style, both men go about their business in different ways.

Ponzinibbio, who is a pressure fighter at heart, has shown the ability to stick and move when he needs to.

Whether he is feinting his way forward or moving laterally, Ponzinibbio does an excellent job of keeping his feet beneath him while slipping his head off the centerline in unison with his patent cross–hook continuums. Variating his levels of attack to the body and head, the Argentine will occasionally mix in kicks for good measure.

That said, this approach is not without its caveats.

Despite Ponzinibbio’s high-volume style of offense being effective on scorecards (as well as his opponent’s psyche), it inherently opens him to counters. Although the Argentine’s current counterpart may not be known as a counter striker, he certainly has no issue with capitalizing upon the moment.

A hard-nosed brawler at heart, who seemingly gets more technical each time out, Perry presents an interesting dichotomy of fighter through and through. Doing his best work when coming forward, the Floridian has added to the effectiveness of his stalking by steadily improving his feints and footwork.

Working behind said feints and footwork, Perry applies pressure that is palpable, looking to create openings and angles to slip and rip his way inside.

Despite keeping a low standing guard, Perry does a good job inherently blocking his body while goading his opponent into attempting a headshot. Backed by a granite chin, Perry keeps his right hand and left hook counters at the ready as he retaliates at the drop of a dime.

As far as clinch fighting goes, I do not expect the action to slow from either side.

Both men are technically competent from underhooks to Thai plums, and neither miss an opportunity to strike off the break. Part of me suspects Ponzinibbio may try to surprise his opponent with the underrated takedown game he displayed early in his career, but I doubt that will get him far against Perry, who defends takedowns like it’s almost second nature.

Carrying solid takedown abilities of his own, Perry shows the skills from ground striking to transitions that could pose some problems for Ponzinibbio if he ends up on top.

Earlier in Perry’s career, he showed a surprising amount of intelligence on when to bail on a position. Now, showing more confidence and competence, Perry will re-wrestle for position or even put his hooks in when appropriate.

Still, holding Ponzinibbio down seems to be no picnic or promise, especially when looking at the Argentine’s improvements in regards to his grip fighting and positional awareness.

The oddsmakers and public seem somewhat confident in a favorite, listing Ponzinibbio -190 and Perry +165 as of this writing.

I can’t say I disagree with the betting lines, but I do caution being too confident on either side here. Perry’s power is always live in a matchup in which the dynamic involves committed striking exchanges, and he only seems to get better each time out.

However, I believe Ponzinibbio is the more skilled striker, and I see his speed, footwork and ability to adjust ultimately making the difference. The prediction is for Ponzinibbio to survive a couple of close scares en route to a 29-28 barnburner on the scorecards.

Official pick: Ponzinibbio by decision