After the last votes have been cast in Gujarat on Thursday, exit poll results for the state and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections will be broadcast from 5 pm.
Various news channels, in collaboration with poll agencies such as Today's Chanaktya and CVoter will predict the winners in legislative Assemblies.
However, these predictions are conducted on a relatively small sample size as compared to the entire electorate, and can sometimes go wrong.
Representational image. AP
Critics say projections can be influenced by the choice, wording and timing of the questions, and by the nature of the sample drawn. Nonetheless, media agencies take utmost care to get the surveys done as close to the actual results as possible.
The Election Commission (EC) also places certain restrictions on publication and distribution of poll predictions and related data. The poll panel barred exit polls related to Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat starting 8 am on 9 November to 6 pm on 14 December.
Noting that there are instances of violations of the rules by some television channels in the telecast of their panel discussions, debates and other news and current affairs programmes, the poll panel warned that violation of Section 126 is "punishable with imprisonment upto two years, or with fine or both".
The EC also drew the print media's attention to the Press Council of India guidelines to be observed during elections, which urge the press to give objective reports about elections and the candidates and avoid reports which tend to promote feelings of enmity or hatred among people on the ground of religion, race, caste, community or language.
"Special care must be taken to report opinion polls accurately and fairly, by disclosing to viewers as to who commissioned, conducted and paid for the conduct of the opinion polls and the broadcast. If a news broadcaster carries the results of an opinion poll or other election projection, it must also explain the context, and the scope and limits of such polls with their limitations.
"Broadcast of opinion polls should be accompanied by information to assist viewers to understand the poll's significance, such as the methodology used, the sample size, the margin of error, the fieldwork dates, and data used. Broadcasters should also disclose how vote shares are converted to seat shares," it further added.
Himachal Pradesh concluded voting on 9 November and recorded its highest turnout at 74 percent. Gujarat went to polls in two phases, with the second phase of polling ending on Thursday. First phase of polls were conducted on 9 December with around 68 percent voter turnout. In the second phase, 47 percent votes were cast until 2 pm. Voting was being held in 93 Assembly constituencies across 14 districts in northern and central regions of the state on Thursday.
There are 851 candidates in the fray. In the first phase, voting was held for the 89 seats of 19 districts of Saurashtra and South Gujarat region, with a total of 977 candidates in the fray.
The results will be declared on 18 December, the same day as Himachal Pradesh.
With inputs from agencies
Published Date: Dec 14, 2017 05:54 pm | Updated Date: Dec 14, 2017 06:10 pm
Highlights
Overall picture from Gujarat Exit Polls results
Today's Chanakya predicts massive BJP win in Himachal Pradesh
India Today-My Axis poll predicts close chase in Gujarat for BJP
Sahara Samay-CNX survey says BJP will retain power in Gujarat; predicts 110-120 seats for BJP and 65-75 seats for Congress
ABP-CSDC survey predicts BJP to sweep South Gujarat, Saurashtra-Kutch region in Gujarat
The survey says BJP4 will win in south Gujarat with 21-27 and Congress will get 9-13 seats. In Saurashtra, BJP will win 31-37 seats and Congress may get 16-22 seats.
Sahara Samay predicts clear BJP win Gujarat with 110-120 seats
BJP may sweep Saurashtra-Kuch region, according to ABP-CSDS poll
According to the ABP News-CSDS exit poll, BJP is likely to sweep in Gujarat's Saurashtra-Kuch region. BJP is likely to get 34 seats out 54 seats while Congress is likely to get 19.
Gujarat: Region-wise breakup of Times Now Exit Poll
Republic TV predicts BJP will lead with 108 seats, Congress to get 74 seats in Gujarat
India Today poll says BJP to oust Congress in Himachal
The BJP will win with a clear majority with 47-55 seats, while the Congress will win between 13 and 20 seats, according to India Today-Axis My India exit poll for Himachal Pradesh.
Times Now says BJP will in Gujarat
In Gujarat, the survey says BJP to win 109 seats, Congress to get 70 seats, others will win 3 seats.
Surjiyt Bhalla's prediction puts BJP in the lead
Economist and psephologist Surjit Bhalla has predicted a comfortable win for BJP, according to CNN-News18.
BJP 125
Congress 57
Others 0
Times Now VMR Opinion poll had predicted BJP win Gujarat
BJP 111
Congress 68
Other 3
Voting for second phase of Gujarat Assembly election ends
Himachal Pradesh has historically alternated between BJP, Cogress: Past performance at a glance
The Constituency Clash: Here's how BJP, Congress performed in 2012 in Gujarat
VDP Associates to start airing survey results from 6pm onwards
ABP-CSDS polls to be aired at 5.30 pm
India Today to broadcast its exit poll after 6 pm
Times Now to air its exit polls at 5pm
Sensex gains 194 pts ahead of Gujarat exit polls; Midcap index flat
Equity benchmarks closed volatile session on stronger note as the Sensex rallied 193.66 points to 33,246.70 ahead of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh exit polls later today. The 50-share NSE Nifty gained 59.10 points at 10,252.10.
Moneycontrol News
A look at how accurate have exit polls been in the past
Exit poll surveys in the past have exhibited mixed accuracy in predicting election results. In the five states that went for Assembly polls last year, the exit poll surveys by most agencies were largely accurate about Assam (BJP), Kerala (Left Democratic Front), Puducherry and West Bengal (Trinamool). However, Tamil Nadu proved to be a hard nut to crack for most agencies as they completely failed to predict the outcome.
Almost all of them had predicted that the DMK-Congress alliance will win the election, however, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK swept the polls in a historic win.
In Uttar Pradesh, while no polling agency was able to successfully gauge the BJP’s seat-count, almost all of them predicted that it would be the single largest party. So it was.
Congress likely to get around 100 seats: Hardik Patel
Patidar leader Hardik Patel on Thursday said the ruling BJP was set to lose the Gujarat Assembly elections, and that the Congress was likely to get around 100 seats in the 182-member house.
"Official files have already started disappearing from the state Secretariat," he said while talking to journalists after casting his vote in Viramgam in Ahmedabad district.
Patel said the Bharatiya Janata Party was likely to get around 70 seats.
Twitter launches live stream of Gujarat elections
Twitter on Wednesday announced that it will live stream the conversations related to the Gujarat elections on its platform as the political interest and discourse on the polls generated over 800,000 tweets in the past week on the microblogging website.
The live stream of elections will be available in English and Hindi, and will take place on Thursday when the second phase of polling is being held, and on counting day 18 December, the company said in a statement.
IANS
Sensex Struggles Ahead Of Gujarat Exit Poll Results
Indian shares fell on Thursday, as investors waited for early forecasts on the winner of a key state election, with sentiment also muted as inflation ticked higher and industrial output weakened. Bonds and the rupee, however, rose after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates.
The Nifty volatility index, a barometer of investor fear, hit its highest level since 1 February on Thursday.
Reuters
Post 5 pm, exit poll results to predict if Modi still invincible in Gujarat
Gujarat election exit poll results 2017 will be out after 5 pm today. The surveys conducted by several agencies will predict which party is leading the elections on the basis of interviews conducted right after voters casted their votes. However, these predictions are conducted on a relatively small sample size as compared to the entire electorate, and their accuracy is not a guarantee.
Critics say the projections of these surveys can be influenced by the choice, wording and timing of the questions, and by the nature of the sample drawn. Nonetheless media houses alongwith other agencies employ utmost carefulness to get the surveys as close to the actual results as possible.
18:10 (IST)
Overall picture from Gujarat Exit Polls results
18:04 (IST)
Today's Chanakya predicts massive BJP win in Himachal Pradesh
18:02 (IST)
India Today-My Axis poll predicts close chase in Gujarat for BJP
18:00 (IST)
Sahara Samay-CNX survey says BJP will retain power in Gujarat; predicts 110-120 seats for BJP and 65-75 seats for Congress
17:58 (IST)
ABP-CSDC survey predicts BJP to sweep South Gujarat, Saurashtra-Kutch region in Gujarat
The survey says BJP4 will win in south Gujarat with 21-27 and Congress will get 9-13 seats. In Saurashtra, BJP will win 31-37 seats and Congress may get 16-22 seats.
17:51 (IST)
Sahara Samay predicts clear BJP win Gujarat with 110-120 seats
17:48 (IST)
BJP may sweep Saurashtra-Kuch region, according to ABP-CSDS poll
According to the ABP News-CSDS exit poll, BJP is likely to sweep in Gujarat's Saurashtra-Kuch region. BJP is likely to get 34 seats out 54 seats while Congress is likely to get 19.
17:45 (IST)
Gujarat: Region-wise breakup of Times Now Exit Poll
17:42 (IST)
Republic TV predicts BJP will lead with 108 seats, Congress to get 74 seats in Gujarat
17:39 (IST)
India Today poll says BJP to oust Congress in Himachal
The BJP will win with a clear majority with 47-55 seats, while the Congress will win between 13 and 20 seats, according to India Today-Axis My India exit poll for Himachal Pradesh.
17:34 (IST)
Times Now says BJP will in Gujarat
In Gujarat, the survey says BJP to win 109 seats, Congress to get 70 seats, others will win 3 seats.
17:30 (IST)
C-Voter survey predicts BJP's win in Himachal Pradesh: Here are the figures at a glance
17:26 (IST)
Surjiyt Bhalla's prediction puts BJP in the lead
Economist and psephologist Surjit Bhalla has predicted a comfortable win for BJP, according to CNN-News18.
BJP 125
Congress 57
Others 0
17:20 (IST)
Times Now VMR Opinion poll had predicted BJP win Gujarat
BJP 111
Congress 68
Other 3
17:09 (IST)
Voting for second phase of Gujarat Assembly election ends
16:55 (IST)
Himachal Pradesh has historically alternated between BJP, Cogress: Past performance at a glance
16:53 (IST)
The Constituency Clash: Here's how BJP, Congress performed in 2012 in Gujarat
16:44 (IST)
VDP Associates to start airing survey results from 6pm onwards
16:40 (IST)
ABP-CSDS polls to be aired at 5.30 pm
16:33 (IST)
India Today to broadcast its exit poll after 6 pm
16:31 (IST)
Times Now to air its exit polls at 5pm
16:22 (IST)
Sensex gains 194 pts ahead of Gujarat exit polls; Midcap index flat
Equity benchmarks closed volatile session on stronger note as the Sensex rallied 193.66 points to 33,246.70 ahead of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh exit polls later today. The 50-share NSE Nifty gained 59.10 points at 10,252.10.
Moneycontrol News
16:05 (IST)
A look at how accurate have exit polls been in the past
Exit poll surveys in the past have exhibited mixed accuracy in predicting election results. In the five states that went for Assembly polls last year, the exit poll surveys by most agencies were largely accurate about Assam (BJP), Kerala (Left Democratic Front), Puducherry and West Bengal (Trinamool). However, Tamil Nadu proved to be a hard nut to crack for most agencies as they completely failed to predict the outcome.
Almost all of them had predicted that the DMK-Congress alliance will win the election, however, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK swept the polls in a historic win.
In Uttar Pradesh, while no polling agency was able to successfully gauge the BJP’s seat-count, almost all of them predicted that it would be the single largest party. So it was.
15:07 (IST)
Congress likely to get around 100 seats: Hardik Patel
Patidar leader Hardik Patel on Thursday said the ruling BJP was set to lose the Gujarat Assembly elections, and that the Congress was likely to get around 100 seats in the 182-member house.
"Official files have already started disappearing from the state Secretariat," he said while talking to journalists after casting his vote in Viramgam in Ahmedabad district.
Patel said the Bharatiya Janata Party was likely to get around 70 seats.
15:05 (IST)
Twitter launches live stream of Gujarat elections
Twitter on Wednesday announced that it will live stream the conversations related to the Gujarat elections on its platform as the political interest and discourse on the polls generated over 800,000 tweets in the past week on the microblogging website.
The live stream of elections will be available in English and Hindi, and will take place on Thursday when the second phase of polling is being held, and on counting day 18 December, the company said in a statement.
IANS
14:55 (IST)
Sensex Struggles Ahead Of Gujarat Exit Poll Results
Indian shares fell on Thursday, as investors waited for early forecasts on the winner of a key state election, with sentiment also muted as inflation ticked higher and industrial output weakened. Bonds and the rupee, however, rose after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates.
The Nifty volatility index, a barometer of investor fear, hit its highest level since 1 February on Thursday.
Reuters
14:51 (IST)
Post 5 pm, exit poll results to predict if Modi still invincible in Gujarat
Gujarat election exit poll results 2017 will be out after 5 pm today. The surveys conducted by several agencies will predict which party is leading the elections on the basis of interviews conducted right after voters casted their votes. However, these predictions are conducted on a relatively small sample size as compared to the entire electorate, and their accuracy is not a guarantee.
Critics say the projections of these surveys can be influenced by the choice, wording and timing of the questions, and by the nature of the sample drawn. Nonetheless media houses alongwith other agencies employ utmost carefulness to get the surveys as close to the actual results as possible.