There’s a quandary in fantasy that we rarely talk about. It has cost me in the past, and worked to my benefit in the past. It’s the reason I typically opt for a stars-and-studs lineup in auctions over full-roster balance.
It’s the problem of too good a bench.
I’m entering the semifinals of my fantasy league with five good running backs. LeSean McCoy will be in my lineup as long as his legs are attached. But beyond that, I have my No. 2 RB slot and the flex for two more backs, with the choices of (alphabetically) Alex Collins, Isaiah Crowell, Kenyan Drake and Dion Lewis.
There’s essentially no winning here. After McCoy, there’s no superstar, Le’Veon Bell-esque option who is obviously in the lineup. In Week 15, I’m probably going Collins and Drake, but Crowell and Lewis have longer track records. It’s all close enough, though, that any answer is defensible. If I win or lose by 50 points in the semifinals, then oh well, no harm. But if I lose by, say, 5 points? There’s roughly a 75 percent chance I will have somehow chosen the wrong pair of backs, and that decision will haunt me all offseason.
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Yes, it’s the problem of “Oh, I’m too rich.” But a problem is a problem nonetheless, and I’m just going to dwell on this all week.
Anyway, we’re on to Week 15, and our weekly look at the best and worst fantasy situations of the slate, informed by our exclusive PFF stats and information. Good luck in your fantasy semifinals … Or if you’re out of it, good luck in DFS this week.
Good situations
Quarterback
Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles: It feels weird to even suggest Foles as a fantasy option, but considering the success the Eagles offense has had so far this year, it’s not unreasonable. Per PFF’s Sam Monson, the Philadelphia offense has been built more around the run/pass option than any other team in the league this year, and that’s the same way the offense was built in 2013, when Foles improbably had one of the best quarterback seasons we’ve seen in a long time. Foles won’t emulate Carson Wentz, but the offense is structured in such a way — and has so many viable weapons at every position — that Foles could easily be a mid-level streamer for a desperate fantasy player.
Running backs
Latavius Murray, Minnesota Vikings: Murray had at least 12 carries in every one of the Vikings’ eight straight wins (averaging 16.5), then only nine in the team’s loss to the Panthers in Week 14. The setup for Minnesota is pretty clear: Games they are leading/games they win are Murray’s domain, while poor game scripts are more the territory of Jerick McKinnon, as the pass-catching option. Nothing against the Bengals in Week 15, but you’d have to consider the Vikings fairly likely to win that game (they’re early 10-point favorites). Murray had five touchdowns in six games before Sunday’s veritable no-show, and should have the balance in his favor in Week 15.
Kerwynn Williams, Arizona Cardinals: In a four-year career, Williams has had six games with double-digit carries. In those games, he’s averaged just under 80 rushing yards a game, totaling 99 carries for 472 yards (4.77 yards per carry). He’s definitely not a pass-catcher (12 career receptions and 20 career targets), but if he has the ball-carrier job to himself in the Arizona offense, he produces. Arizona faces a Washington team in Week 15 that has allowed 100 rushing yards to running backs five times in seven games, and nine rushing scores in nine games since its Week 5 bye. Assuming Adrian Peterson remains out for Week 15 — and there’s no reason to force the veteran back in a season that is finished — Williams should have plenty of rushing yards.
Wide receivers
Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers: This is obviously contingent on Aaron Rodgers returning for the Week 15 game (and it looks good!), but assuming he does, Nelson goes right back to must-start status. Nelson and Rodgers had four healthy games together this season; in those four games, Nelson’s combined line was 19 catches on 28 targets for 230 yards. That’s only so-so, to be sure, but here’s the kicker: 6 touchdowns. Nelson was the No. 6 fantasy receiver when Rodgers went down, and that was with him missing essentially all of Week 2 to his own injury. Rodgers-to-Nelson is one of the musts.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams: Woods is expected to return from his own injury in Week 15. Before his injury, through Week 11, Woods was the No. 10 fantasy wide receiver on the season — and an easy No. 1 during his last three weeks of action. He did that damage lining up primarily as the Rams’ right wide receiver — 78.3 percent of his snaps on the season have come from that side. Were that still Richard Sherman’s domain, that would be a scary proposition for Woods come Sunday. But with Sherman out, the job has fallen mostly to Jeremy Lane for Seattle — or Byron Maxwell, who is well removed from his glory days. Instinctively, you want to be scared off by the Seattle pass defense, but not these days.
Tight end
Adam Shaheen, Chicago Bears: When Zach Miller was active, the rookie Shaheen wasn’t a part of the Chicago offense — one target (albeit a 2-yard touchdown) in eight games. But since Miller went out, Shaheen has become increasingly relevant, with two scores and a career-high five targets in Sunday’s win over Cincinnati. It’s admittedly only 14 total targets on the year, but Shaheen’s 85.7 catch percentage trails behind only Maxx Williams and Brandon Williams among tight ends with at least 10 targets. Sunday, he faces the Lions, who have allowed five scores to tight ends over their last four games.
Bad situations
Quarterback
Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs: After a down spell, it’s probably tempting to use Smith in fantasy again, after he’s had 50 fantasy points and the Chiefs have scored 64 real points over the last two weeks. And in a neutral-to-good matchup, sure, that makes sense. But Saturday, Smith and the Chiefs draw a Chargers defense that is on a serious heater. No quarterback has reached 20 fantasy points against the Chargers since Week 1. Quarterbacks have averaged 10.3 fantasy points against the Chargers since Week 5, and that includes Derek Carr (6.8), Dak Prescott (3.2) and Kirk Cousins (8.8). Smith managed 15.5 points on this defense in Week 3, but the unit has only improved since then.
Running back
Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts: Not only were Gore’s 36 carries in Sunday’s blizzard game against Buffalo a career-high, it was also the second-most carries ever by a player after his 30th birthday (behind only Adrian Peterson’s 37 carries in Week 9). And now the Colts have a short turnaround to a Thursday game against the Broncos — otherwise known as a game that can’t possibly be relevant for anyone. Teams on average give their No. 1 running backs about 2.6 fewer carries in Thursday games on short rest as it is (16.3 on Sundays the week before; 13.7 in Thursday games), and Gore’s workload should plummet relative to that average. Expect the Colts to lean on the rookie Marlon Mack and give Gore a bit of a breather so he can have extended rest before Week 16.
Wide receiver
Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams/Travis Benjamin, Los Angeles Chargers: Only Antonio Brown has been on a similar level to Keenan Allen’s the last four weeks. Allen has 39 catches on 49 targets for 547 yards and four scores the last month, nearly doubling his season yardage total. Before that stretch, Allen had 70 targets compared to 40 for Tyrell Williams, 36 for Benjamin, 7 for Mike Williams. The last four weeks, Allen has 49, 14 for Benjamin, and 11 each for the Williamses. Among the team’s top four receivers, Allen went from 45.8 percent of the receiver targets to 57.6 percent. The Chiefs have cracked down on pass defense of late, allowing only one touchdown to a receiver since their Week 10 bye. With fewer scoring opportunities, and the ones they do get going predominantly to Allen, don’t bother with a secondary Chargers receiver this week.
Tight end
Tyler Kroft, Cincinnati Bengals: Kroft hasn’t been vintage Tyler Eifert, but he’s been as close as the Bengals could have reasonably expected in Eifert’s absence, with 347 yards and 5 touchdowns on the season so far, coming into Week 15 as the No. 15 fantasy tight end. In a neutral matchup, he’s been a more than acceptable streamer and a pleasant surprise. Problem is, this isn’t a neutral matchup this week. The Vikings haven’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end since Week 5, and have only allowed three all year. They’ve given only 34.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends since that Week 5 game, 41.2 per game all year. If you’ve ridden Kroft to now, congratulations on finding a sleeper, but it’s time to move on.
Daniel Kelley is the Fantasy Editor for Pro Football Focus.
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