The Monmouth poll released today finds:
Pres. Trump’s current job rating stands at a net negative 32% approve and 56% disapprove. This marks his lowest rating in Monmouth’s polling since taking office in January. Prior polls conducted over the course of the past year showed his approval rating ranging from 39% to 43% and his disapproval rating ranging from 46% to 53%.
The decline in Trump’s job rating has come much more from women – currently 24% approve to 68% disapprove – than from men – currently 40% to 44%. In September, Trump had a 36%-55% rating among women and a 44%-42% rating among men.
The gender gap in the president’s rating crosses party lines. Republican women (67%) are somewhat less likely than Republican men (78%) to give Trump a positive rating. These results are down by 9 points among GOP women since September and by 5 points among GOP men since the fall. The biggest drop has occurred among independent women – just 14% currently approve of Trump’s job performance, which is down by 25 points since September.
Perhaps President Trump might consider apologizing to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) for suggesting that she is a whore? That might be a start, but the GOP’s problems run deeper than that. Looking ahead to the midterms:
Democrats currently hold a 15 point advantage on the generic Congress ballot. If the election for House of Representatives were held today, a majority (51%) of registered voters say they would vote for or lean toward voting for the Democratic candidate in their district compared to 36% who would support the Republican.
In counties that Trump won by at least 10 points in 2016, voters prefer Republicans for the House by a relatively small 48% to 41% margin. Democrats, not surprisingly, are in the driver’s seat in counties that Hillary Clinton won by at least 10 points, with a 65% to 23% advantage.
Even expected crowd-pleasers such as recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel get Trump nowhere. (“Just 23% say it is a good idea compared to 39% who say it is a bad idea, with 38% registering no opinion. A majority (51%) think the move will destabilize the Middle East region. Just 10% say relocating the embassy to Jerusalem will make the region more stable and 28% say it will have no effect on the region’s stability.”)
This last item may be a warning sign for Republicans hoping to save themselves by approving an unpopular tax bill. Trump derives comfort from a “win” or a claim to have “delivered,” but when he does things over and over again that appeal to a narrow base (e.g., try repealing Obamacare, tax cuts for corporations) he is only going to cement perceptions, both negative and positive. In the time they have to win voters back, Trump and his GOP handmaidens are only energizing and enraging the opposition — which, according to another survey, may include a lot of ex-Republicans. (GOP party identification has declined by 5 percent since Election Day 2016, according to the Gallup poll.)
There is a price to be paid for treating women and nonwhites with contempt. Republicans have already had a taste of what mobilized women and nonwhite voters can deliver — Democratic victories in Virginia and Alabama. If and when more allegations of sexual assault or harassment come to light (including the names of lawmakers who used taxpayer money to settle claims) the spotlight will once again put the party of Trump on defense. As we have pointed out, Democrats are smart to clean house of abusers in their ranks — precisely because the GOP is stuck with Trump and all he conjures up for those beyond his white, male working-class base.